I think they're just getting notified themselves. Maybe after they've assigned workers to add the appropriate stickers, they wil comment?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
anthonyj
Stonks
It’s really odd. It’s almost as if Tesla wants the share price to tank by being so opaque. In order for some bigger entity to buy shares
Still hearing lots of swirl about how the price drops must mean a lack of demand. Well, that's one possibility. The other possibility, and the one that I am leaning towards, is that Tesla is shifting their supply curve.
Tesla is at a stage where economies of scale are still very important, and where gaining and holding market share is critical. Cutting costs and then having a corresponding round of price cuts is a classic example of shifting your supply curve to the right. Lower price, higher quantity of units sold and at a margin somewhere similar to previous levels.
Tesla is at a stage where economies of scale are still very important, and where gaining and holding market share is critical. Cutting costs and then having a corresponding round of price cuts is a classic example of shifting your supply curve to the right. Lower price, higher quantity of units sold and at a margin somewhere similar to previous levels.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Wow, someone just placed a ~570k buy order (10:40). Not macro related - all the indices were quiet at that point, it was a TSLA trade - although it could be a well informed member of the China trade negotiations team ...
Could be Chanos covering - if there's someone then the head conman should know that the short thesis is dead. Or some billionaire saying "These bozos don't seem to understand that you should never bet against Elon ..."?
Could be Chanos covering - if there's someone then the head conman should know that the short thesis is dead. Or some billionaire saying "These bozos don't seem to understand that you should never bet against Elon ..."?
JustAaronnoraA
Member
I agreed and this bring up the going private again BUT this time looking more like the work of Larry... i dont know... the conspiracy in me!
Attachments
Sorry, won't even read it. I don't waste my time on garbage like this any more.
If you are curious about the 2% that is true:
What is true (and apparent in the financial statements) is nearly all of Tesla's assets have asset-backed loans against them. Much of this is "non-recourse" but the rest of the assets secure one giant revolving line of credit. (Interestingly, the big line of credit has a list of companies who the debt cannot be transferred to, including most of the auto companies worldwide.) The remaining unsecured debt (mostly the convertibles and the 2025s) has to be paid off from cash or profits.
I worked out the warranty manually by figuring out S/X over past years then holding that steady and tracking the changing model 3 allocation. It takes some modelling. It has fallen a lot and represents a big chunk of improved savings on the COGS for model 3 over the last year. ReflexFund put up a model here that was qualitatively thorough but he put overoptimistic ranges on all the individual line items. Base Model 3 was ~37k$-38k$ in Q4 and that number is not coming down very fast.
edit: $1730 is my exact figure, and I know that's still high relative to BMW models but that might very well be appropriate.
Yeah right 300% percent is only slightly betterWTF is wrong with the SEC? Here we have an obvious violation of Regulation FD by Tesla, disclosing this MATERIAL INFORMATION to Deutsche Bank and not to the rest of us, and they're complaining about a harmless tweet?
This is NOT OK
This means if you take GAAP gross profit (revenue - variable costs - allocated costs like depreciation) and add back depreciation (revenue - variable costs), gross profit on the car is $1500. Very useful information; this is slightly better than I expected, since I'm on record as saying $500.
In short, the base model 3 is profitable and cash-flow positive but is not yet covering the capital costs of the machinery which is being used to build it (depreciation). Well, actually, I don't know how much depreciation there is in there, if depreciation is less than $1500/car then GAAP gross profit would still be positive, just not as positive. I've no idea how to estimate how much depreciation they're allocating; they spent billions on capital costs, depreciated some of it already, had to write off some of it, and we have no idea how long each piece of equipment or tooling is being depreciated over, so who knows. I am not fond of depreciation as an accounting concept.
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I think we can safely say that European delivery hell has been resolved, judging by the large number of deliveries per day now being reported from Norway, Germany and The Netherlands. Elon didn't waste time when he cut out the Zeebrugge handler within one week, and that seems to have been the right decision.
The problem with official communications from Tesla is that you have to be 100% sure it is accurate. Which means a lot of people have to review the info. Which means it isn’t worth doing for items that will get fixed within a matter of days. Lord knows there is more FUD out there than even we have noticed. Tesla can’t address all of it.
Look, assuming Tesla doesn’t need to issue more stock, the stock price is fairly irrelevant to Tesla right now. It’ll get back up after a quarterly report or two. The SR model 3 pretty much ensures that. The broad market is just nervous about margins, trade issues, fed tax credit expiry affecting demand, a whole bunch of things. The only way the market is going to get reassured is quarterly results.
Just treat this as a buying opportunity. I personally can’t since I bought a lot of TSLA after Elon’s $420 tweet and I was too stupid to unload it for break even when the stock price got back up to $374 for a few hours. My bad.
Look, assuming Tesla doesn’t need to issue more stock, the stock price is fairly irrelevant to Tesla right now. It’ll get back up after a quarterly report or two. The SR model 3 pretty much ensures that. The broad market is just nervous about margins, trade issues, fed tax credit expiry affecting demand, a whole bunch of things. The only way the market is going to get reassured is quarterly results.
Just treat this as a buying opportunity. I personally can’t since I bought a lot of TSLA after Elon’s $420 tweet and I was too stupid to unload it for break even when the stock price got back up to $374 for a few hours. My bad.
No, this is labels.
China is a *very bureaucratic* country -- has been for thousands of years. Shanghai and Guangzhou have more piratical cultures, but the Beijing central government culture is very red-tape, dot the is, cross the ts. They're just doing what they do. It's unfortunate that Tesla has been pretty bad at this sort of dot the i, cross the t paperwork for most of its history (they are still pretty crap at getting registration paperwork filed correctly), so there may be further tangles.
Nah it was only 155 million...just chump changeWow, someone just placed a ~570k buy order (10:40). Not macro related - all the indices were quiet at that point, it was a TSLA trade - although it could be a well informed member of the China trade negotiations team ...
Could be Chanos covering - if there's someone then the head conman should know that the short thesis is dead. Or some billionaire saying "These bozos don't seem to understand that you should never bet against Elon ..."?
Amazon promised "guaranteed two day delivery" and then shipped product to me in four days. Recently. Apparently companies can blow this sort of stuff off for a very long time.
That said, yes of course Tesla should fix it.
X Fan
Active Member
Very true....with the new BOD members, I expected better messaging.....so far, it's been a disaster.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I would correct you by saying the energy products WILL be even more profitable.
Dan
This is explicitly against SEC regulations, so I repeat, WTF, SEC.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Ha. me too. Been sat on those for a long time now
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