Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Just in time for the bell:

Why does life exist?

 

[lascavarian]

Not in the S&X. Only the Model 3 has a liquid cooled AP computer. (And adding liquid cooling during a retro-fit wouldn't be a 30 minute job.)

I would speculate that since the same Nvidia based boards are involved that there would be a similar provision for cooling. It may be addressed by a clock speed adjustment in some cases or it may be that the new NN board runs even cooler than the NVDA one. I guess we will find out soon enough.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

At this point I'd actually be ok with the 420 buyout. Literally 7 days ago i would have said no buyout until 600/share. But the past week has made not concerned, but just genuinely pissed off at Teslas PR/communication and its treatment of its shareholders. No effort to combat the constant FUD and media, no effort to clarify their statements and the many questions swirling around the company and they didnt even let shareholders know there was a private media call and let us listen in.

Again im not worried about the actual company. Most of here know the vin data is telling a completely different story and we all know why Q1 is going to be the way it is. But we're being left out to dry by the company we're supporting with our own money and they're doing nothing right now to defend the share price. Thanks for letting me vent my frustrations guys

 

[phil0909]

I drink coffee within minutes of pulling the shot. Otherwise it gets oxidized.

Mmmmmmmm - oxidation!

Homer Simpson Eating GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

[Pezpunk]

Look, does ANYONE remember getting their car when the "delivery estimate" was? Mine was months late, some people's were weeks early...

When I ordered my P100D in August of 2016, they told me i'd have it in September or October of that year. I had it by the middle of September.

 

[mongo]

I would speculate that since the same Nvidia based boards are involved that there would be a similar provision for cooling. It may be addressed by a clock speed adjustment in some cases or it may be that the new NN board runs even cooler than the NVDA one. I guess we will find out soon enough.

@MP3Mike was specifically referring to the liquid cooling portion of @Fact Checking 's post. Tesla already reported having S and X versions of HW3.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Bought August 400 calls. (Not looking for it be in the money. Just 2x or 3x return)

200 WMA (weekly moving average) at 274; small gap fill at 260. It's never stayed below the 200WMA for long in recent years.

(click on weekly tab)
TSLA - Tesla Inc.

 

[Unpilot]

Bought at 3l00, 290, 280, ran out of money now

Unless you bought over 370...like I did....you don't know real pain.

 

[Remus]

Unless you bought over 370...like I did....you don't know real pain.

Yes I did.

 

[jhm]

Ok, put in my limit order for $271. Go ahead, make my day.

 

[neroden]

Does anyone have independent access to the analyst report of Deutsch Bank on the short range model 3? Apparently (short source) it reads

In our follow-ups with the company, management outlined a high level bridge to maintaining profitability which includes savings from higher fixed cost absorption…Tesla indicated that initially, the $35k Model 3 will generate a positive cash gross margin (gross profit plus depreciation of approximately $1,500)….

WTF is wrong with the SEC? Here we have an obvious violation of Regulation FD by Tesla, disclosing this MATERIAL INFORMATION to Deutsche Bank and not to the rest of us, and they're complaining about a harmless tweet?

This is NOT OK

I am trying to figure out here if that means they only get to a positive cash gross margin through depreciation (which would mean negative gross margin) or if they do a gross positive margin and then another $1500 in depreciation for additional positive cash contribution.

This means if you take GAAP gross profit (revenue - variable costs - allocated costs like depreciation) and add back depreciation (revenue - variable costs), gross profit on the car is $1500. Very useful information; this is slightly better than I expected, since I'm on record as saying $500.

In short, the base model 3 is profitable and cash-flow positive but is not yet covering the capital costs of the machinery which is being used to build it (depreciation). Well, actually, I don't know how much depreciation there is in there, if depreciation is less than $1500/car then GAAP gross profit would still be positive, just not as positive. I've no idea how to estimate how much depreciation they're allocating; they spent billions on capital costs, depreciated some of it already, had to write off some of it, and we have no idea how long each piece of equipment or tooling is being depreciated over, so who knows. I am not fond of depreciation as an accounting concept.

 

[EVDRVN]

Mmmmmmmm - oxidation!

Homer Simpson Eating GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

All that C02 on the way out post grind.

 

[Remus]

Unless you bought over 370...like I did....you don't know real pain.

Yes I did, but later I also bought (with a loan from Lord wifey) when the stock price was in the dump, not far from now, and recovered part of the loss by selling some at 330.

Time to do it again.

 

[abasile]

Sold MA and bought TSLA!

 

[Pezpunk]

i get that uncertainty and confusion are anathema to investors, but unless you think Elon and Tesla are lying about ... like ... literally everything, this stock is a massive bargain.

 

[neroden]

So Emmanuel Rosner's wording:

"In our follow-ups with the company, management outlined a high level bridge to maintaining profitability"​

Might either be a reference to the Q4 ER CC, or a genuine followup they had with Tesla's management. My guess it's the former.

I hope so, since that wouldn't be a Reg FD violation.

 

[jhm]

Unless you bought over 370...like I did....you don't know real pain.

That was an awesome camp experience!

 

[Unpilot]

Ok, put in my limit order for $271. Go ahead, make my day.

Not that I am a copy cat...but I did the same.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's hard sometimes for me to ignore the short term chaos and look at the bigger picture. I think EVs are the future of transportation, and Tesla will be a big player in that market. But that's just cars. Tesla's energy products could be even more profitable.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah, so we have these estimates so far:

• : InsideEV: 8k+7k Model S+3+X U.S. deliveries Jan-Feb, unknown methodology, suspected VINology.
  
• : Bloomberg smoothed: 5.7k/week smoothed M3 production, which extrapolates to 74k for the quarter.
  
• : AlphaHat: 11.5k S+3+X U.S. deliveries in Jan, reliable cellular tracking based methodology. They projected 30k U.S. deliveries in Q1.
  
• : Carsonight: GF1 was "flirting" with 7k/week Model 3 production by the end of Jan. Extrapolates to about 85k for Q1 assuming same rate for Feb and March.
  
• : Bloomberg raw data: M3 prod 6.5k/week Jan, 7.5k/week in Feb, 8k/week in March so far. Extrapolates to 88k in Q1.
• : 85% of 123k new Q1 VINs estimate: suggests 104k target.

The 3 most bullish estimates are internally consistent, bullish AF, but last 2 are beyond all guidance and estimated production capacity.

InsideEV numbers are the outlier, AlphaHat and Carsonight are the most reliable, so I'd go with the middle ground for Q1 so far: 85k production, 60k+ deliveries if European delivery hell is resolved.



LOL.

I am really liking these colorful posts with the various expressive faces to indicate what the words will say. Depending on my mood, I can decide if I want to read the good news or the bad news only.