Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

BREAKING NEWS FROM REUTERS:
Tesla requires fewer delivery workers in the USA while they're delivering fewer cars in the USA. Shocking.

Exclusive: Tesla's delivery team gutted in recent job cuts - sources | Reuters

This is currently the top news story on Reuters.com, complete with a breaking news banner across the top.

 

[kbM3]

Yes - even the shorts didn't try to push the SP down much after the news came out. I hope you can survive when the base SR comes out. Tesla had worldwide reservation of 400k for ca car starting $35k. Some 300k was from US/Canada. They have managed to sell 150k cars without coming close to that $35k.

Basically you can't sell only in China/EU. You have to keep selling in US as well.

The SR has always been expected. I’ve never thought they’d be able to sell 10k/week without it. I did think they could sell 7k/week with the backlog.

Why would you care about one quarter ? If you are just in shares, just take a look at the stock price once a year or so. I didn't do even that many years.

Afterall - with all that has happened with Tesla over the last 18 months, the stock price hasn't moved much.

I think the reason is that I’m over-invested in TSLA. I will be looking to diversify, but I’d like it to be nearer the $370 mark rather than $310

 

[EVNow]

I think the reason is that I’m over-invested in TSLA. I will be looking to diversify, but I’d like it to be nearer the $370 mark rather than $310

Don't we all ?

<NotAnAdvice>
Chances of a blow out Q1 and the SP near ATH after Q1 ER are low, IMO.

OTOH, you can wait for the SP to go to 350 or so before moving to S&P 500. That can happen on any good news or no news at all.
</NotAnAdvice>
​

 

[EVNow]

No it's very concerning and discussion here has not been very reassuring, too irrational.

I think it is irrational to assume they can continue to sell high priced 3s in US in large numbers. They need to pull demand up from SR waiters.

 

[EVNow]

BREAKING NEWS FROM REUTERS:
Tesla requires fewer delivery workers in the USA while they're delivering fewer cars in the USA. Shocking.

Exclusive: Tesla's delivery team gutted in recent job cuts - sources | Reuters

This is currently the top news story on Reuters.com, complete with a breaking news banner across the top.

LOL. This is as if reports just don't listen. What part of "we are making only 3s now for EU and China" did the reporters not understand ? They don't have to look for "signs" or read "tea leaves" - just plain spoken English.

BTW, these are the same lay offs reported earlier.

Some 150 employees out of a team of about 230 were let go in January at the Las Vegas facility that gets tens of thousands of Model 3s into the hands of U.S. and Canadian buyers, they said, in a sign the company expected the pace of deliveries to significantly slow in the near term.

 

[RobStark]

Didn’t you see the earlier post about Tesla’s new business. He is there for the waffles, pastries and pancakes. Batter up!

 

[Menifeer]

Afterall - with all that has happened with Tesla over the last 18 months, the stock price hasn't moved much.

That’s why I think TSLA is a stock to be traded, not held. It’s one of my favorite trading issues because it’s so volatile. Good news one week and the price spikes upward. Bad news that follows drives it back down.

People who bought a couple years ago have been sitting on dead money while traders have been watching their portfolios grow. I understand the “fear of missing out”, but buy-and-holders have missed out on a lot of trading profits over the last couple years. I don’t expect this situation to change any time soon.

 

[EVNow]

The SR has always been expected. I’ve never thought they’d be able to sell 10k/week without it. I did think they could sell 7k/week with the backlog.

They already sold the high priced backlog in US/Canada. If they wanted to only sell in Europe/China this quart, they may have been able to do it (this has the problem of too many cars on boats, lowering Q1 revenue). But, they do need to keep selling in the US. Moreover, they need to upsell as much of the SR demand as possible - before the SR becomes available. So, if SR will be available by Q3, they had to lower the price now to entice those guys to buy MR in Q1 & Q2.

 

[Mike Smith]

People who bought a couple years ago have been sitting on dead money

Um, no. If you bought a few years ago you're definitely up, probably significantly up.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not sure why we are not getting it. Have not gone on a very long road trip, but did about 150 miles round trip in very cold weather (below 0 F) and did not have a material reduction. I also have a friend who lives by me with a dual motor, and he also has not had any material reduction.

Maybe you weren’t speeding enough.

 

[EVNow]

Um, no. If you bought a few years ago you're definitely up, probably significantly up.

In 2 years - TSLA is up 12%. Nasdaq up 24%. S&P up 15%.

But - on 4/3/17 Tesla closed at $302. Today it closed at $305. So, nearly two years of not much gain. But, if you did swing trade, you could make some money.

I posted this earlier, last 7 ERs TSLA closed around $300 on the day of ER (i.e. just before ER). That is really extraordinarily weird for a company that is doubling sales and production every year.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't see how that is the case. Driving in that temperature (assuming you are using the heater) will result in about 30% drop in range. Then add in losses due to highway speeds, winds etc. This is supported by my own experience (and many other anecdotes) as well as outside studies. I saw total losses as high as 50% when dealing with 10 degree weather and 70mph in heavy wind/snow conditions.

Personally, I think EVs have more pros than cons in cold weather but range loss is sizable.

Because a gas or diesel vehicle isn’t prone to range loss in the same conditions. It just continues to putter at 75mph, into headwinds and gets 95mpg.

Yeah, I’m tired of the ridiculous attention this is getting as if ICE’s aren’t also affected. Nobody talks about it because hardly anybody even knows what their gas tank mileage is.

 

[ls7corvete]

No it's very concerning and discussion here has not been very reassuring, too irrational.

Cost of manufacture of M3 has been dropping by about 2k a quarter while still hitting goals for margins. I would expect them to adjust price accordingly.

 

[InDaClub]

Looks like he's getting his money's worth from that private jet.

Right, but no privacy.

 

[Mike Smith]

In 2 years - TSLA is up 12%. Nasdaq up 24%. S&P up 15%.

But - on 4/3/17 Tesla closed at $302. Today it closed at $305. So, nearly two years of not much gain. But, if you did swing trade, you could make some money.

I posted this earlier, last 7 ERs TSLA closed around $300 on the day of ER (i.e. just before ER). That is really extraordinarily weird for a company that is doubling sales and production every year.

A 'few' is at least 2, not 2 or less. If you bought anywhere between 2 and 4 years ago there's a 95% chance you're up significantly - probably around 30%.

 

[Menifeer]

Cost of manufacture of M3 has been dropping by about 2k a quarter while still hitting goals for margins. I would expect them to adjust price accordingly.

If they can sell every car they make, why would you expect a price reduction?

Tesla has lots of upcoming cash demands (expanding Superchargers & Service Centers, preparing for MY/semi/pickup production) and should be building cash reserves. Why forego revenue (twice in rapid succession) unless there's a demand issue?

 

[ls7corvete]

If they can sell every car they make, why would you expect a price reduction?

Tesla has lots of upcoming cash demands (expanding Superchargers & Service Centers, preparing for MY/semi/pickup production) and should be building cash reserves. Why forego revenue (twice in rapid succession) unless there's a demand issue?

PR, to pull up lower end buyers to higher end models, to better fit in the pricing structure with the rest of their products, timing with other releases/updates/price changes.

TSLA is not just building one car anymore, they are building a portfolio of products, price changes and model changes are expected to make this portfolio well rounded and attractive to buyers and investors.

Saying the only explanation is demand is very myopic.

 

[davecolene0606]

Am I the only one freaking out about the fact that Tesla has had to lower the price twice since the start of the year? I really thought, at least in Q1, that Tesla would be able to sell out 6000 to 7000 per week at $46,000 and up in the face of the large European and Chinese backlogs.

Yes...

Fire Away!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Am I the only one freaking out about the fact that Tesla has had to lower the price twice since the start of the year? I really thought, at least in Q1, that Tesla would be able to sell out 6000 to 7000 per week at $46,000 and up in the face of the large European and Chinese backlogs.

No. I expect Mark's Beagle to freak also. Perhaps the two of you should do coffee.

 

[gringotuanis]

Ao

LOL. This is as if reports just don't listen. What part of "we are making only 3s now for EU and China" did the reporters not understand ? They don't have to look for "signs" or read "tea leaves" - just plain spoken English.

BTW, these are the same lay offs reported earlier.

Um, no. If you bought a few years ago you're definitely up, probably significantly up.

Not if you bought in about the last 2 years. It's been a flat range between $220 to $380.