adiggs
Well-Known Member
In 2 years - TSLA is up 12%. Nasdaq up 24%. S&P up 15%.
But - on 4/3/17 Tesla closed at $302. Today it closed at $305. So, nearly two years of not much gain. But, if you did swing trade, you could make some money.
I posted this earlier, last 7 ERs TSLA closed around $300 on the day of ER (i.e. just before ER). That is really extraordinarily weird for a company that is doubling sales and production every year.
And as @EVNow also knows, if you swing traded you could have lost money while definitely consuming the time and energy that would have gone into all of those buy and sell decisions.
For somebody with a few months to a few year investment horizon, then all this volatility and when-will-the-market-recognize-the-value maybe makes Tesla not a good investment. Not because it won't take off in the next few months or years, but because we all don't know when it will take off.
If your investment horizon is long enough (for me, 10+ years), buying Tesla at today's prices is sort of like going back in time to a point of my choosing to buy Microsoft, Intel, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, ... (pick your company). If only I'd a bought <blah> at <time>. Well when I look at the market, the company that stands out today as being today's "if only I'd a bought" is Tesla. And in 10 or 20 years, people are going to be saying "if only I'd of bought Tesla at $300 back in 2019. I mean sure, it'd already gone up a bunch, but it was still so cheap and by then the Model 3 was shipping bigly -- it was OBVIOUS how it was going to blow up".
That's my hypothesis anyway, and I don't have the time or energy to follow the daily movements closely enough to make frequent buy and sell decisions. So I guess I have a bunch of dead money