Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm thinking it's a sub $40k model availalble now and a firm date for $35k version. Gonna be a Good Friday.

 

[Artful Dodger]

From a tweet on Lemur day:

"It's a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February."

Elon Musk - Oct 18, 2018

Jus' sayin'.

EDIT2: Green.
$318.22 +3.5 +1.11%

 

[mongo]

Musk is taking a different role than CEO.

Anything is possible, but that would kill his compensation plan.

For vesting to occur when the milestones are met, Elon must remain as Tesla's CEO or serve as both Executive Chairman and Chief Product Officer, in each case with all leadership ultimately reporting to him.

Tesla Announces New Long-Term Performance Award for Elon Musk | Tesla, Inc.

 

[shlokavica22]

Actually it's not that different than this from the 16th of this month:

"#Tesla registered 13,225 new #Model3 VINs. ~3% estimated to be dual motor. ~6% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 292118."

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

How is 0% dual motor AND 7% international not different? Think it over again ;-)

 

[mekberg]

How is 0% dual motor AND 7% international not different? Think it over again ;-)

"not that different"

I'm using Adam Jonas math.

 

[Zaxxon]

Quick update on Norway: now sitting at 958 delivered, which is > 10x Feb 2018. Likely will be more added today, but unlikely to quite catch Nov 2017 as the top non-quarter-ending month ever. Again, though, Nov is seasonally much stronger than Feb, so this is still pretty solid in my book. March should be another jump up since deliveries didn't even start until midway through Feb (and March is longer, as well).

 

[Fred42]

Tiffany Trump. It would break the internet and TSLA would actually close over $400 this week.

How are you doing with the half shafts on your XP100D, if you care to say?

 

[mongo]

"not that different"

I'm using Adam Jonas math.

0% vs 3% is either 3% (arithmetic), 100% (3% down to 0%), or infinity (0% to 3%) percent different

 

[mekberg]

I'm thinking it's a sub $40k model availalble now and a firm date for $35k version. Gonna be a Good Friday.

Yes. I'm thinking Standard Range + PUP for now due to margins on PUP.

 

[shlokavica22]

"not that different"

I'm using Adam Jonas math.

Yeah, you are right. It's just less obvious.

 

[larmor]

What's the bucket list of current core Tesla Tasks [that we know of or can reasonably induce]?

Gigafactory Shanghai + attendant cell supply + financing
Gigafactory Europe + cell supply + financing [all still very murky, I think]
Model Y development + industrialization
Model 3 SR [a bit of a public fixation IMO as marker of progress along the cost curve]
Semi development + industrialization
Pickup development + industrialization
Cell supply for US production currently seems to be sufficient
Financing for US centered activities - probably without a capital raise
Stationary Storage
Discounting solar stuff as immaterial to the company's vital progression [sorry but so]
Discounting Roadster 2 - nice but nonessential. Worth a big Elonian announcement?
Vital ancillary tech like battery and Supercharger improvements
Autonomy catchall
All kinds of service improvements

Anything else on the radar?

Wireless energy transfer with large soon to be deployed satellite network.
Tesla branded tinfoil and graphene hats...

 

[Artful Dodger]

But I hope this is not a $35k M3 or Y annoucement. That means they are global demand constrained at the current trim levels.

I will get a lot of Disagrees. I am happy to be wrong.

You just have to follow what Elon actually says:

"It's just like people literally don't have the money to buy the car. It's got nothing to do with desire. They just don't have enough money in their bank account." - Jan 31, 2019​

Elon's top priority for the Model 3 program is to make it a mass-market car, and to get as many of them as possible on the roads.

That means cutting the price. You know, so they can supply the demand that exists at those prices? Where nobody else sells any EVs?

 

[KarenRei]

It would depend on who Elon is marrying.

Azealia Banks.

 

[Fact Checking]

What's the bucket list of current core Tesla Tasks [that we know of or can reasonably induce]?

Gigafactory Shanghai + attendant cell supply + financing
Gigafactory Europe + cell supply + financing [all still very murky, I think]
Model Y development + industrialization
Model 3 SR [a bit of a public fixation IMO as marker of progress along the cost curve]
Semi development + industrialization
Pickup development + industrialization
Cell supply for US production currently seems to be sufficient
Financing for US centered activities - probably without a capital raise
Stationary Storage
Discounting solar stuff as immaterial to the company's vital progression [sorry but so]
Discounting Roadster 2 - nice but nonessential. Worth a big Elonian announcement?
Vital ancillary tech like battery and Supercharger improvements
Autonomy catchall
All kinds of service improvements

Anything else on the radar?

Please take my wholehearted up-vote for the very creative, informative and typographically pleasing use of this forum's set of emoticons to categorize outcomes by sentiment!

I'm so going to steal this format!

 

[Open Interest]

Especially considering that Baird Tesla analyst Ben Kallo is married to CNBC anchor Melissa Lee.

Really?! I record CNBC’s Fast Money every day, which Lee anchors, and that panel is incredibly negative on TSLA. Very interesting!

 

[AMN]

How are you doing with the half shafts on your XP100D, if you care to say?

Where do I check?

 

[sundaymorning]

Today’s price action is so bipolar, but it’s starting to look ultra green now. I wonder how our Care Bears are doing?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

My guess :

Musk is taking a different role than CEO.
Or Panasonic taking more ownership in GF1


But I hope this is not a $35k M3 or Y annoucement. That means they are global demand constrained at the current trim levels.

I will get a lot of Disagrees. I am happy to be wrong.

I think it's irrelevant because the announcement is February 28th 5pm EST, and there's a March convertible note to be paid off, which is announcement-worthy, but not event-worthy. There's also leasing, which doesn't depend on production improvements.

Anyway, Tesla has already worked through the backlog in the USA.

Being able to sell the SR+PUP at least is important for market and consumer confidence. I consider it essential for survival, because cost reduction is needed to maintain profitability as the ASP falls. Ironically, the SR+PUP could help sell other variants.

I don't think Tesla will sell a US-built SR in China, since it's building GF3 in Shanghai to sell more profitably to the Chinese market.

So, beginning SR+PUP production for North American sales could affect demand in Europe. But, SR will be limited to RWD, and it would continue to use AWD to upsell people to LR. Also, Tesla would in any case not actually _sell_ the SR+PUP at least until 2019Q3 since the pricing for the MR puts its cost around or below the target for the unsubsidized SR.

 

[Pezpunk]

Today’s price action is so bipolar, but it’s starting to look ultra green now. I wonder how our Care Bears are doing?

10am-11am MMD is REAL. i don't get it, but it's real.

 

[mongo]

Today’s price action is so bipolar, but it’s starting to look ultra green now. I wonder how our Care Bears are doing?

MMDAF?