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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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About that Chamath interview... I am not sure he is right about energy trading. He made it sound like "all of us" will be able to trade energy with the new Tesla Autobid software, but the way I understood was that this is for Powerpack/Megapack not Powerwall. Even if the SW makes this seamless and needs no knowledge/skills from the end user, I am pretty sure that energy trading is not something just any residential user can do. At least in Hungary you need a rather expensive permit for it and I bet your local utility company needs to OK as well. This is meant for companies, not private citizens.
 
Their index funds yes. But what stops the hedge fund that runs the index fund and 50 other funds most of which are not index-tied to have started buying into one or several of those and do an internal sale whenever the announcement is made?
Exactly! Their other fund gets a big boost at low risk and their index fund outperforms the market.
 
Will they, when maximum pain is around 1495 ?
Look at the last time TSLA touched the Mid-BB (see Jun 29 on the 50-day chart I posted).

SP was below the Mid-BB for exactly 15 min, then it rose $57 (6%) over the course of the day's session:

TSLA.chart.2020-06-29.png


That's strong support at the Mid-BB. I have $30k locked'n'loaded in case of a repeat of such an event.
 
About that Chamath interview... I am not sure he is right about energy trading. He made it sound like "all of us" will be able to trade energy with the new Tesla Autobid software, but the way I understood was that this is for Powerpack/Megapack not Powerwall. Even if the SW makes this seamless and needs no knowledge/skills from the end user, I am pretty sure that energy trading is not something just any residential user can do. At least in Hungary you need a rather expensive permit for it and I bet your local utility company needs to OK as well. This is meant for companies, not private citizens.
Autobidder would tie all the individual powerwalls together to act as one, same with V2G.
 
About that Chamath interview... I am not sure he is right about energy trading. He made it sound like "all of us" will be able to trade energy with the new Tesla Autobid software, but the way I understood was that this is for Powerpack/Megapack not Powerwall. Even if the SW makes this seamless and needs no knowledge/skills from the end user, I am pretty sure that energy trading is not something just any residential user can do. At least in Hungary you need a rather expensive permit for it and I bet your local utility company needs to OK as well. This is meant for companies, not private citizens.
This software will work with Powerwalls, Elon mentioned it on Wednesday. Basically Tesla will aggregate individual Powerwalls into large chunks of dispatchable capacity then bid. The world of energy could not be changing more, that's why it feels so unlikely to be true.
 
08:00 a.m. Whistle: Fri, 24 Jul 2020
  • TSLA share price: $1,428.50 -$84.57 -5.59%
  • NASDAQ-100 Futures: -99.63 -0.94% 08:00:01
  • TSLA moving @ 6x macros
  • TSLA Pre-market Volume: 334,182 @ 08:00 ET (high volume)
TSLA.2020-07-24.08-00.png


Pre-Market High: $1,471.97 (06:28:42 AM)
Pre-Market Low : $1,407.45 (07:48:14 AM)

Comment: "Yesterday's Big Badda-Boom continues in Pre-market"
 
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Can close ~ $25K CC's at 85-90% profits for Aug early. Seems can repeat the same for Sept and Oct too :)
Best premium ever :)

(+ I thought we wouldn't cross $2250 after earnings regardless. 3500's was easy pickings. Best one was like 77$ premiums for Aug 2850)
 
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Tesla Energy was the big, big takeaway (eye-opener) for me from the earnings report. I’m dealing with Tesla on a project utilizing Megapacks and had an idea their business was growing but it seems to be accelerating of late and during a pandemic no less. It truly is all about the batteries and the surrounding ecosystem of software, hardware, data and support...all of which are truly peerless. Any analyst with any modicum of engineering savvy is totally having a light bulb (pun intended) moment right now...the energy opportunity is enormous and inevitable.
 
About that Chamath interview... I am not sure he is right about energy trading. He made it sound like "all of us" will be able to trade energy with the new Tesla Autobid software, but the way I understood was that this is for Powerpack/Megapack not Powerwall. Even if the SW makes this seamless and needs no knowledge/skills from the end user, I am pretty sure that energy trading is not something just any residential user can do. At least in Hungary you need a rather expensive permit for it and I bet your local utility company needs to OK as well. This is meant for companies, not private citizens.

Tesla Virtual Power Plant
Colin Breck and Percy Link explore the evolution of Tesla's Virtual Power Plant (VPP) architecture
A VPP is a network of distributed energy-resources (often solar, wind, batteries) that are aggregated to provide smarter and more flexible power generation, distribution, and availability. Tesla's VPP consists of vertically integrated hardware and software, including both cloud and edge computing

Found this presentation a while back. It discusses the architecture of how this whole thing is set up.
 
About that Chamath interview... I am not sure he is right about energy trading. He made it sound like "all of us" will be able to trade energy with the new Tesla Autobid software, but the way I understood was that this is for Powerpack/Megapack not Powerwall. Even if the SW makes this seamless and needs no knowledge/skills from the end user, I am pretty sure that energy trading is not something just any residential user can do. At least in Hungary you need a rather expensive permit for it and I bet your local utility company needs to OK as well. This is meant for companies, not private citizens.

Check out Octopus Energy in the UK. The powerwall is managed by Tesla and helps with grid stabilisation. I suspect Autobidder is using your powerwall to achieve this.

From the FAQ:
Octopus Energy

Is the Tesla Energy Plan managed by Tesla?
Tesla’s authorised retail partner, Octopus Energy, administers the plan. By joining the Tesla Energy Plan, you will become part of Tesla’s UK Energy Community. Your Powerwall will be managed by Tesla and connected to a growing network of homes across the UK. The plan is designed to help support the energy needs and stability of the electricity grid–while providing you with ongoing savings through the most competitive rates in the market
 
What I will find interesting when the market opens is if the Calls I sold with over $1600 strikes should be almost at zero. That's the whole mispricing thing I mention every now and then,. I bet they won't be at zero even tho the market is insisting the SP belongs at 1415. A drop in the SP is understandable. The manipulation can be ridiculous.

Other tech is at - <2% premarket. Yet for some reason TSLA with an excellent ER is a 5% plunge.