Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kcveins]

Today's high was an all-time intraday high.
Today's low was an all-time high daily low.
Today's close was the second highest ever, second only to yesterday.

TSLA is doing fine.

Actually, the all time intraday high was on July 13 when it hit 1794.99
Otherwise, correct...

 

[Todd Burch]

The overwhelming majority of analysts are lagging indicators, making them useless for price prediction.

They are great at telling you what the weather will be yesterday.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Huh, the rules document says the IWF only gets updated annually. Did Rob mention where that scenario was sourced from?

Rob mentions that it's partly his speculation and that he has a "source familiar with the matter" who states that they could walk up the weighting at each quarterly re-balancing over a year.

Watch the video for about a minute from 25:49 if you want to get it from the horses mouth.

Also, taking a quick look at the S&P doc it appears there are some other events where IWFs can be rebalanced. I assume you're looking at the same PDF
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/d...y-sp-float-adjustment.pdf?force_download=true

Investable Weight Factor Maintenance Rebalancing Frequency Investable Weight Factors (IWFs) are reviewed annually based on the most recently available data filed with various regulators and exchanges. For the S&P Dow Jones indices, updated IWFs resulting from the annual review are applied either prior to the open of the Monday after the third Friday of September or a date that is more appropriate for a particular index family. For example, the S&P Global BMI constituents’ new IWFs are applied at the annual reconstitution at the open of the Monday after the third Friday of September; for the S&P Frontier BMI index constituents, revised IWFs are applied at the annual reconstitution at the open of the Monday after the third Friday of March. Please refer to individual index methodologies for specifics on IWF rebalancing schedules.

Timing of Changes
 Annual Review:
IWF changes are implemented based on the latest publicly available share and ownership information. All IWFs of 0.96 or above are rounded to 1.00 at the annual review.

 Quarterly Review:
IWF changes are implemented if the change is at least 5% of total shares outstanding and is related to a single corporate action, regardless if there is an associated share change. For quarterly reviews that coincide with the annual review, the annual review rules apply.

 Mandatory Actions:
In order to minimize index turnover, any IWF changes resulting from M&A activity are implemented based on the pre-event IWFs of the securities involved.

 Non-Mandatory Actions:

•  For actions qualifying for accelerated implementation, IWF changes are implemented to help mimic the shares made available in the offering.
•  For actions of at least US $1 billion that qualify for accelerated implementation, IWF changes are implemented to reflect the shares made available in the offering plus the latest share and ownership information publicly available at the time of the announcement.

Edit: The same doc also goes on to mention exceptions

Index Committee
Questions of interpretation or possible exceptions to float adjustment rules are considered by the Index Committee responsible for the indices in question. There is no separate committee for float adjustment.

So it sounds like the can do whatever they want.

 

[Ratanpara]

Small excerpt from my Investment Thesis 2.0 blog:

George is very good Engineer, he tried to work with OEM but was frustrated from them, his success will depend on Tesla success, If vision based Tesla system is successful his company will be bought at very high price by someone.

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 567512

And that folks is how you execute passive aggressiveness. A+

 

[UncaNed]

Macros dumping on:
"China Says U.S. Ordered Abrupt Closure of Houston Consulate"

1- Does it look like this does NOT mean the sky is falling today?
2- If the Macros DID cause a significant drop today or tomorrow morning, do we think TSLA could reasonably still be expected to rise significantly tomorrow with a good earnings report?
Because it Is (or is not) baked in to the SP?
3- Shall I show myself out now?

Thanks.

 

[ZachF]

The overwhelming majority of analysts are lagging indicators, making them useless for price prediction.

They are great at telling you what the weather will be yesterday.

The overwhelming majority of analysts can't beat the S&P, which means their labor actually has negative value.

 

[Big Time]

There’s my 1,600.00!!!

 

[Krugerrand]

Fiat Chrysler and Waymo sign exclusive deal on self-driving commercial vehicles

I don’t know why (because the brain works in mysterious ways, especially when it’s been rattled over the years), but this headline reminded me of an old game show - Match Game.

Host: Fiat Chrysler and Waymo sign exclusive self-driving deal.
Audience: How exclusive is it?
Host: It’s so exclusive that neither know (blank).

Popular answer: It’s so exclusive that neither know they are part of it.

*Flash laughter prompt sign to audience in case they don’t get the joke*

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 567527

You win. Way funnier than my response.

 

[Tslynk67]

1- Does it look like this does NOT mean the sky is falling today?
2- If the Macros DID cause a significant drop today or tomorrow morning, do we think TSLA could reasonably still be expected to rise significantly tomorrow with a good earnings report?
Because it Is (or is not) baked in to the SP?
3- Shall I show myself out now?

Thanks.

It's 105 days left until we can begin to end this shitshow of Trump and his idiotic goons.

Sure, I don't like all of China's antics either, but you can still be tough in a more diplomatic fashion, rather than just causing a crisis every other day.

 

[Todd Burch]

And that folks is how you execute passive aggressiveness. A+

Exactly. Is that really Gordon Johnson's account (it's unverified, after all)? A financial analyst shouldn't need to ask if price cuts for a product are seen as bad by consumers. Gordy McBoatface, I'm pretty sure consumers like price cuts.

Gordy, I'll explain it. You see, when consumers buy a product, they have to take money out of their pocket--money that they worked hard for--and give it to someone else in exchange for that product. When the price of a product goes up, the consumer has to give away more of their hard-earned money to purchase the product.

(In the voice of Tarzan): Price go up, make consumer mad. Face look like this:

On the other hand, when the price of a product goes down, it means the consumer has to give away less of their hard-earned money. This means they have more of it to spend on other things.

(In the voice of Tarzan): Price go down, make consumer happy. Face look like this: .


I mean, duh. Duh. Duh. Duh. Duh.

 

[Krugerrand]

2.5D is a term used by video game developers to classify their rendering / world engine. One of the most famous examples of a game with a 2.5D engine is DOOM (Id Software, 1993).

The biggest issue with 2.5D engines is that sprites can not be stacked vertically. Like going under a bridge. Sound familiar?

Cheers!

Umm...sprites don’t like to be stacked at anytime anymore than trolls do. Duh.

 

[jhm]

And most fund investors are likely dollar cost averaging buyers, which is just fine. They provide a continual buying pressure.

It's unearned. They are not specifically buying Tesla because of anything Tesla is doing. Rather they are simply saving for retirement. Tesla is becoming a generic stock, held by many for no better reason than it is included in a major index.

 

[MartinAustin]

It's 105 days left until we can begin to end this shitshow of Trump and his idiotic goons.

Sure, I don't like al of China's antics either, but you can still be tough in a more diplomatic fashion, rather than just causing a crisis every other day.

I responded with a "disagree" because... let's keep this out of the TSLA stock thread (and on the day of an ER... jeez)

 

[Tslynk67]

I responded with a "disagree" because... let's keep this out of the TSLA stock thread (and on the day of an ER... jeez)

Sorry, you're right, just makes me so angry.

 

[Todd Burch]

Will we see another quick straight-line pushdown shortly? (Hypothetical question).

 

[Todd Burch]

Here it is! Surprise!

 

[dl003]

I hope ER comes out by 14:05. My manager leaves early today and they'd like to know if I'll still be working tomorrow.

 

[Todd Burch]

While we wait for earnings, I'll live it to the rest of you to make sense of this:

If you're new to investing, what this is saying is: "We see a bullish pattern. We see the price increasing in the short, mid, and long term. But it's overvalued".

Financial analysis courtesy Gordon "Huh?" Johnson and Adam "Robocop" Jonas.