Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Nikola is not totally fake. In essence it's a design company that's made a bunch of designs for vehicles, and a few prototypes. I can see why Trevor is proud of these, because the designs are pretty well done. However, the enormous problems are:

1. Designing the machine that makes the machines is orders of magnitude harder than designing the machine. Elon has stated this numerous times.
2. Anyone can make a great prototype, and claim certain specs and price. Being able to produce said vehicle with those specs, at that price point, and have sufficient margin for profitability, is another thing entirely. Even if Nikola (or its outsourcing partners) are able to create the production facilities, there is no guarantee that the products will have the same specs and price as the prototypes. The Tesla Roadster had to be sold for much more than originally promised.
3. Even if they manage to build out production capacity, and produce the products as promised at the quoted prices, we have absolutely no idea if any of them will sell, because the pre-orders are a joke. We don't know if any company will buy hydrogen trucks (probably not), we don't know if any people will want to buy the electric water vehicle (maybe?), and we don't know if their truck design will be able to compete with the incumbents, the CyberTruck, and the Rivian truck.
4. Nikola is spending way too many resources, and Trevor is spending way too much of his time, on things that are unimportant. Nikola World 2019, the Tesla lawsuit, the interviews with YouTube investing channels, etc. are not what Nikola should be focussed on right now. Most of its customers aren't even consumers but businesses. You don't need to advertise and increase brand awareness to sell trucks to businesses, you just need to offer a cheaper and better product.

WIth that in mind, maybe NKLA is worth a couple dozen million dollars at best. It's basically a company with ~350 designers & PR people, who create prototypes that nobody knows whether they are actually feasible, and who create hype around these prototypes. Nikola is basically a design studio with a PR department, and perhaps a handful of (probably mediocre) engineers sprinkled in.

Law suits with Tesla was a brilliant marketing move. I didn't even know their company exist before that lawsuit. It was a good way to show the world that they have some secret sauce that even Tesla is infringing on their ip. Probably fake news but brilliant. It is one of the reasons why people FOmo so hard thinking they are the next Tesla.

The guy is a sales man, that's why there's more bark than bite to the company.

 

[goinfraftw]

General investor macro info:

https://twitter.com/dandefrancesco/status/1271082287615090691

The numbers across the board are ridiculous.

 

[jerry33]

The heavy truck market is very resistant to change.

I disagree. Once you can show truckers and trucking companies benefits, either economic or time saving*, they jump on it fast. Examples: switch to radial tires and remote mechanical and driver monitoring. (Naturally they are resistant to change if you can't show them benefits.)

*Example: Before radial tires, truck drivers that drove on unpaved roads (gravel trucks, logging trucks, etc.) spent the evenings repairing flats. Two or three flats per day was pretty common. After radial tires, flats became almost a non-existent. Before radial tires, tire fires on highway trucks were also common. Now they are very rare.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Or people disagree with Bloombergs logic here. I found it informative that Bloomberg disagree with ohters re market cap.

Thanks, @Christine600 , could be, but Google too?

 

[jerry33]

How do you start out at Yale, move on to Goldman, and then end up as just a scumbag foreclosure and payday loan specialist?

You go to whomever pays you the most. All that is required is a lack of ethics. Something the graduates of the top universities have no shortage of.

 

[avoigt]

Who lost 13bn? Shorting tsla?

The guy got the right idea, but you can tell it's his first time shorting and he got greedy. Tsla was pretty down during the pandemic. And he wanted that extra $300 after the stock is already down by 50%. The profit window for shorting is very narrow as downsode moves are usually more pronounced and faster.

Its what the shorts lost in 2020 according to Ihor which is of course not 100% accurate but a good indication.

 

[FrankSG]

Law suits with Tesla was a brilliant marketing move. I didn't even know their company exist before that lawsuit. It was a good way to show the world that they have some secret sauce that even Tesla is infringing on their ip. Probably fake news but brilliant. It is one of the reasons why people FOmo so hard thinking they are the next Tesla.

The guy is a sales man, that's why there's more bark than bite to the company.

If your aim to get rich off of a pump and dump scheme, sure.

But I'd rather build a $100M company that's valued as a $100M company, than a $30M company that's valued as a $30B company and will eventually come crashing down.

I think Trevor is detached from reality. He seems pretty delusional about the state of things. I think he truly believes the things he says.

 

[goinfraftw]

You go to whomever pays you the most. All that is required is a lack of ethics. Something the graduates of the top universities have no shortage of.

I'm not sure - I've met a lot of people from those top universities that are very good, ethical people too. There's good/bad/ugly wherever you go. The top universities just amplify that capability based on having a network...similar to money with werewithall, IMO.

 

[Christine69420]

Thanks, @Christine600 , could be, but Google too?

View attachment 550386

I'm a rookie here and have no idea. Only I can think of is - do Toyota pay any taxes based on this number? Then there should be an official number somewhere?

 

[jhm]

No, it's just plain wrong. Toyota bought back stock on the open market to bolster their stock price. Now, in the US, when you do a stock buyback, the shares just disappear. Toyota, whether because Japanese law allows this or doesn't demand this, just held on to its own shares. But shares that are not on the market don't count toward market cap. They're called "treasury shares" because they are held by the company's treasury department, not because they are government bonds.

Just to be clear, market cap is based on shares outstanding, and shares outstanding are exclusive of shares held by treasury.

 

[StealthP3D]

Nikola is spending way too many resources, and Trevor is spending way too much of his time, on things that are unimportant.

This is all the proof I need (how the top executives spend their time). Because if they were serious about making this work, they would realize just how much there is to do.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

While comparing EV's to all different manufacturers, i think we fail to see one huge positive Tesla has over everyone else, which is their supercharger network infrastructure. No automotive manufacturer will come close to having that and Tesla is so far ahead of the game already. Granted, we all have had our issues having long waits, (esp here in Southern CA). However, what manufacturer is going to compete with this? Answer: NO ONE!

 

[jerry33]

I'm not sure - I've met a lot of people from those top universities that are very good, ethical people. There's good/bad wherever you go. The top universities just amplify that capability based on having a network...similar to money with werewithall, IMO.

I didn't mean there weren't any, but generally speaking the more money, power, and influence you have, the less likely you are to care about ethics. The top universities have a larger percentage of monied individuals.

 

[JBRR]

The reason for discrepancies in reporting on Toyota's marketcap is that Toyota holds 30b$ in US treasuries.
So their marketcap is 180b excluding those and 210b including.

Would edit this post if I could. Clearly got the treasuries part confused. Thanks for correcting me guys.

So yeah - treasury in this context refers to a company holding it's own shares. Not US bond.

 

[floydboy]

Nikola is not totally fake. In essence it's a design company that's made a bunch of designs for vehicles, and a few prototypes. I can see why Trevor is proud of these, because the designs are pretty well done. However, the enormous problems are:

1. Designing the machine that makes the machines is orders of magnitude harder than designing the machine. Elon has stated this numerous times.
2. Anyone can make a great prototype, and claim certain specs and price. Being able to produce said vehicle with those specs, at that price point, and have sufficient margin for profitability, is another thing entirely. Even if Nikola (or its outsourcing partners) are able to create the production facilities, there is no guarantee that the products will have the same specs and price as the prototypes. The Tesla Roadster had to be sold for much more than originally promised.
3. Even if they manage to build out production capacity, and produce the products as promised at the quoted prices, we have absolutely no idea if any of them will sell, because the pre-orders are a joke. We don't know if any company will buy hydrogen trucks (probably not), we don't know if any people will want to buy the electric water vehicle (maybe?), and we don't know if their truck design will be able to compete with the incumbents, the CyberTruck, and the Rivian truck.
4. Nikola is spending way too many resources, and Trevor is spending way too much of his time, on things that are unimportant. Nikola World 2019, the Tesla lawsuit, the interviews with YouTube investing channels, etc. are not what Nikola should be focussed on right now. Most of its customers aren't even consumers but businesses. You don't need to advertise and increase brand awareness to sell trucks to businesses, you just need to offer a cheaper and better product.

WIth that in mind, maybe NKLA is worth a couple dozen million dollars at best. It's basically a company with ~350 designers & PR people, who create prototypes that nobody knows whether they are actually feasible, and who create hype around these prototypes. Nikola is basically a design studio with a PR department, and perhaps a handful of (probably mediocre) engineers sprinkled in.

The trouble I'm having with Mr Milton, is instead of sleeping on the couch, prepping the factory and displaying the performance of his product, he's sleeping in increasingly larger mansions, relying on someone else's factory and displaying the performance of his CGI group(as well as his mouth). Now he's hiring a CEO?! Seems to me he's hiring a target who simply wasn't able to execute Trevor's brilliant plan. No, I remain extremely skeptical of Trevor Milton's motives until something other than talk is coming out of Nikola.

 

[Singuy]

If your aim to get rich off of a pump and dump scheme, sure.

But I'd rather build a $100M company that's valued as a $100M company, than a $30M company that's valued as a $30B company and will eventually come crashing down.

I think Trevor is detached from reality. He seems pretty delusional about the state of things. I think he truly believes the things he says.

Trevor 2020 talking about Nikola: I am one of the few people who can out Elon.

Elon 2008 talking about Tesla : There is a high probability that Tesla will fail.

One is a sales man, the other is a truthful CEO not detached from reality.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Trevor 2020 talking about Nikola: I am one of the few people who can out Elon.

Elon 2008 talking about Tesla : There is a high probability that Tesla will fail.

One is a sales man, the other is a truthful CEO not detached from reality.

Difference is one wants to be the other, and the other is a true visionary.

 

[jhm]

Trevor 2020 talking about Nikola: I am one of the few people who can out Elon.

Elon 2008 talking about Tesla : There is a high probability that Tesla will fail.

One is a sales man, the other is a truthful CEO not detached from reality.

He's speaking the language of TSLAQ. I wonder if the TSLAQ community is buying. Imagine the awesome pair trade: long NKLA, short TSLA. Are the dum-dums dumb enough?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

No, I remain extremely skeptical of Trevor Milton's motives until something other than talk is coming out of Nikola

He's got that monorail salesman vibe

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's a while when I stop entering or continuing any discussion with them... I realized its a waste of my time and energy... everybody is it's own lucks Blacksmith *German saying.

Yeah, there's a maxim in English which is quite helpful: the bullshit asymmetry principle.

"The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."​

Pick your battles, and keep up the good fight!

Cheers!