Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Over the last few days Elon has shown himself to be less rational than I thought, and after all these years I thought I had a reasonable measure of the man. I was wrong so I needed to make adjustments. I had too much exposure to a person who has diminished themselves in my eyes. To ignore that would be foolish. I still probably have more of my net worth in TSLA than most people but I need to keep evaluating that more thoroughly.

If you keep reducing your exposure to the problem you have identified, then pretty soon you will have solved the problem.

Zero exposure = zero "problem". The choice is yours.

 

[madodel]

True. Maybe I had too much confidence from CDC and WHO after going through SARS and 2018 Swine Flu.

But it is also responsibility of MSM to provide alternative perspective from what Asian countries had already done. These Asian countries are also ran by doctors but MSM focused too much on China.

MSM wields so much power on shaping public perception. They need to due diligence on providing all the fact-based views.

Sadly today's CDC is not what it used to be. We need someone that cares about public health to make it back to what it once was. MSM can only report what it finds out. There are few if any foreign reporting stations even among the largest of what's left of the consolidated media. I look to foreign sources (mostly BBC because I'm incapable of reading foreign languages, but Google translate helps) to find out what is going on in the rest of the world.

 

[Dwdnjck]

I have been experimenting with this. What I do is ingest ethanol solutions, which raise my blood alcohol content, which then raises my breath alcohol content. Hopefully to a high enough level to kill any aerosolized viruses. So far I have avoided Covfefe-19 infection with this method.

I’ll drink to that!

 

[Singuy]

Bears will be mounting an attack on Q2 numbers. They know it will be weak, we know it will be weak. I’d expect the market to be rational about it, but inevitably the shorts will dump it and weak investors will panic sell adding to overall pressure on the stock.

However, this is assuming a late start on Fremont, no surprise announcements, everything staying the same. So hopefully we get some tailwinds that help investors look past Q2.

Tesla may crush expectations again with China deliveries and positive cash flow. Who knows but this stock has crushed every earnings for the past 3 earnings. People price in *sugar* numbers for Q2 so the bar is set pretty low. Everyone thinks the stock will move down due to people thinking Q2 is weak really doesn't know how the market works. It's all about beating or missing expectations, not based on "no *sugar* sherlock" "predictions"...

 

[AlMc]

The differences:
I'm not in charge of a multi-billion dollar company.
My actions do not have any real impact on others.
I'm not communicating to millions of followers.
I'm not repeating anti-science conspiracy theories.

Over the last few days Elon has shown himself to be less rational than I thought, and after all these years I thought I had a reasonable measure of the man. I was wrong so I needed to make adjustments. I had too much exposure to a person who has diminished themselves in my eyes. To ignore that would be foolish. I still probably have more of my net worth in TSLA than most people but I need to keep evaluating that more thoroughly.

If you keep reducing your exposure to the problem you have identified, then pretty soon you will have solved the problem.

Zero exposure = zero "problem". The choice is yours.

I have checked with many old TMC friends that have departed this site on the subject of recent EM posts. My crude numbers show about 2/3 say...'No worries' while 1/3 have expressed concern....only a few of those concerned have or are selling shares.

Just one person's data point but given the loss of many of people from TMC that I know have decent knowledge of Tesla/TSLA/EM I am inclined to hold shares and buy on dips.

Not advice

PS: The loss of people with knowledge of Tesla/TSLA/EM far exceeds the current knowledge that is shared here currently. A shame in this poster's opinion. A real shame.

 

[RandomJohnny]

To @RandomJohnny, best for Tesla? not sure where you think Trump is on board with improving air quality, promoting EVs and not supporting the oil/gasoline companies instead. Just because Elon wants to get his plant up and running only makes him a fair weather friend. Elon joined his advisory committee way back when hoping I’m sure to bend his ear on EVs and sustainable energy and look where that got him. Trump had no interest what so ever in extending the EV incentives to Tesla, GM and others. Trump has pushed for relaxing the fuel standards and fighting states like Calif and manufacturers like Tesla who are opposed to that. Tesla wants to see a move towards cleaner air and environment and Trump supports coal, fracking and coal power plants. Time to do more research if you are serious about Tesla at all.

Thanks for the advice. I'm aware of all of your liberal talking points (that is not research btw, that is going by what they are telling you and you taking it at face value). Not too long ago I thought they sounded reasonable too. Maybe you should dig a little deeper and give some thought to what is real and what isn't? What is political game and what isn't? No EV incentives? Tesla wins by a landslide. No fuel standards? Great, even earlier doom for the ICE companies that will just take that much longer to develop a competitive EV (like they are going to make one anyway). It isn't so black and white as they and you make it seem. Less regulation is always good for the innovator. I believe Tesla will dominate no matter who is elected or what policies are implemented but many things that have the appearance of being negative on its face actually have a completely different outcome than most would expect. I believe that is the case here. I just want to point out, and I see this alot, but your response is absolute. You are 100 percent certain to the point that you are telling me that I need to do more research on talking points that have been repeated over and over. I am not 100 percent certain but I have thought about it alot. You make alot of assumptions like you know Elon personally and spoke to him about what is happening now and what actually happened at the advisory committee. I do not. Should I do more research or get better pretending like I know it all?

Btw, anyone else think it is funny that the place where all those MSM talking points you listed come from are the same places that rarely report Tesla's amazing progress and mostly just spread lies and misinformation about Elon and the company in a negative light?

 

[JRP3]

Carsonight
@carsonight
Some GF1 employees have been told they will not be returning on May 4 and have been told to stand by until further notice. This relates directly to Fremont's delayed reopening. Panasonic is still spooling up. Whether product will go to stationary storage or to China I don't know. Carsonight on Twitter

 

[Intl Professor]

If you keep reducing your exposure to the problem you have identified, then pretty soon you will have solved the problem.

Zero exposure = zero "problem". The choice is yours.

You're all catching Buddhism! Have you no taste?

"Be in the present" means for me, don't be corrupted by the past nor too fond of the future. I've violated both and learned the truth lies about the middle, in the sense of spreading falsehood. The trick is in learning to accept reality without becoming cynical. Trump and his bully friends can't do this. Nor can Kissinger.

How Do You Explain Henry Kissinger?

Malicious shorts are a flavor of bully.

 

[willow_hiller]

Carsonight
@carsonight
Some GF1 employees have been told they will not be returning on May 4 and have been told to stand by until further notice. This relates directly to Fremont's delayed reopening. Panasonic is still spooling up. Whether product will go to stationary storage or to China I don't know. Carsonight on Twitter

Thanks for posting. Do you know if the source is credible? It looks like they only have ~600 followers on Twitter.

 

[The Accountant]

Thanks for posting. Do you know if the source is credible? It looks like they only have ~600 followers on Twitter.

From what I understand, Carsonight has friends and relatives working at GF1.

 

[JRP3]

Thanks for posting. Do you know if the source is credible? It looks like they only have ~600 followers on Twitter.

Carson has long had insightful GF1 information. He's a local with ties to workers there.

 

[JRP3]

Drive on Elon. It's difficult to know where our best interests allign in this current global climate. Until I see someone else with the courage to stand tall in the face of backlash for their convictions, as Elon has done time in and time out, I will respect his opinion and be an advocate for reasoned debate without "cancelling" them.

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
"If one day, my words are against science, choose science." Mustafa Kemal Atatürk
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

Surely nobody is expecting it to take that long now? I'm not expecting it to open on monday, but I'd be very surprised if its more than a week beyond that. Other US car factories in other states are opening, so california looks like getting some very anti-business PR over the next few days if they dont do something soon.

Agreed. Why back on March 26, I predicted that a Fremont restart by May 15th would still allow Tesla to achieve 500K production for 2020:

So I do still see a clear path to over 500K production in 2020, given that Fremont can return to full production by Q4. I think that's reasonable, given the young work force and Tesla's vertical integration. Note that the above ramp rate allows for a restart at Fremont as late as May 15 while still having Tesla produce 500K total vehicles for 2020

BTW, this projection also includes a Q2 production rampup beginning with 1 shift for Model 3, and returning to 2 shifts by Q3.

Cheers!

 

[SMAlset]

Thanks for the advice. I'm aware of all of your liberal talking points (that is not research btw, that is going by what they are telling you and you taking it at face value). Not too long ago I thought they sounded reasonable too. Maybe you should dig a little deeper and give some thought to what is real and what isn't? What is political game and what isn't? No EV incentives? Tesla wins by a landslide. No fuel standards? Great, even earlier doom for the ICE companies that will just take that much longer to develop a competitive EV (like they are going to make one anyway). It isn't so black and white as they and you make it seem. Less regulation is always good for the innovator. I believe Tesla will dominate no matter who is elected or what policies are implemented but many things that have the appearance of being negative on its face actually have a completely different outcome than most would expect. I believe that is the case here. I just want to point out, and I see this alot, but your response is absolute. You are 100 percent certain to the point that you are telling me that I need to do more research on talking points that have been repeated over and over. I am not 100 percent certain but I have thought about it alot. You make alot of assumptions like you know Elon personally and spoke to him about what is happening now and what actually happened at the advisory committee. I do not. Should I do more research or get better pretending like I know it all?

Btw, anyone else think it is funny that the place where all those MSM talking points you listed come from are the same places that rarely report Tesla's amazing progress and mostly just spread lies and misinformation about Elon and the company in a negative light?

Wow you sure make a lot of assumptions about me and things I brought up.

As for Tesla I am sure people seriously considering one will purchase with or without a federal incentive because it’s that good of a car with much appeal. Not so true of other EVs like a Bolt where incentives will help consumers afford the cars where maybe they couldn’t afford a Tesla but wanted to buy EV. There was also congressional discussion of cancelling all incentives.

It’s Tesla’s mission to advance all EVs so not encouraging it goes against it. Your post comes off soundIng like you believe the world is all fake news against Trump. Sort of like Pizza Gate I guess. Certainly the “otherside” isn’t putting out fake news. Anyway this isn’t about politics, but about real world concerns about the environment. I’ve talked to some neighbors and showed off my Tesla at different times when approached and for many families with limited resources/budget they say they’d consider an EV after prices go down in the future. In the meantime they buy another ICE vehicle that will last for many years.

So for someone who has done so much research as yourself please tell us how you know Trump has helped the EV movement, embraced sustainable energy and talked his fellow political mates into supporting legislation and programs like those.

 

[Rammstein]

Ok conspiracy theory. Big oil started all this. They make sure they have all the right people in place. The sheriff for the county and everyone who runs the county. Then set off this virus. Allowing them to bankrupt Tesla. I’m thinking this live movie we are watching will have a happy ending though.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ok conspiracy theory. Big oil started all this. They make sure they have all the right people in place. The sheriff for the county and everyone who runs the county. Then set off this virus. Allowing them to bankrupt Tesla. I’m thinking this live movie we are watching will have a happy ending though.

So the virus that literally ended the oil & gas industry was released by....the oil & gas industry?

 

[CaliBear1]

I see what you did there.

I agree that all California emigrants have plenty to choose from between eastern and western Washington. There is no need to look further east. Idaho is ugly, we only have potatoes and boredom to offer so no further CA inquires please. just kidding, there's a title wave of Californians and western Washingtonians washing up in our state finding their bits of paradise these days...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Ok conspiracy theory. Big oil started all this. They make sure they have all the right people in place. The sheriff for the county and everyone who runs the county. Then set off this virus. Allowing them to bankrupt Tesla. I’m thinking this live movie we are watching will have a happy ending though.

I was thinking this (well, a less weird theory) yesterday, but was hesitant to post:

Our enemies of old are back and have the Alameda County officials in their pockets. "Keep Fremont closed down as long as possible" is their order, backed with shiny coin.

 

[MC3OZ]

Agreed. Why back on March 26, I predicted that a Fremont restart by May 15th would still allow Tesla to achieve 500K production for 2020:



BTW, this projection also includes a Q2 production rampup beginning with 1 shift for Model 3, and returning to 2 shifts by Q3.

Cheers!

Looks spot on to me, so I assume Elon isn't the only one with a time machine?

All these Elon tweets may result in Fremont opening a week or 2 earlier iMO.

Unfortunately it seems to me in US politics quiet negotiations might not work, but a media circus often works.

My other hunch is Elon will be very motivated to get the next US GF built ASAP.

Notwithstanding all the merits of California, Elon isn't happy and he will not forget.

Cheers.

 

[bubb]

Elon had no trouble quickly publishing emails with hospitals on twitter when it suited his defense against the media and their ridiculous ventilator hit job (I'm looking at you, Russ). How about all the company communications with county and state officials now that we are out of the quiet period? The company could overshadow all of this controversy if they could show evidence of good faith efforts being rebuffed or ignored by officials.