Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jack6591]

I guess I am the only one thinking this is not necessary?

I mean come on! We now have daily flooding in coastal cities. Insurance company reacting to increased risks. Active fund managers divesting from fossil fuel. Heck even the Saudis are cashing out by putting Aramco on the market!


Those who don't see the writing on the wall are bound to have their ass handed to them.

One of the things I have always respected about the shorts is their tenacity. The come to fight, and are unapologetic in their tactics.

If I could change one thing on the long side—I would love to see more aggression. To that point, I believe we should grin when we fight, but give the shorts as good they give. Give ‘em hell but with a happy heart. Fight back with facts and evidence.

If someone is guilty of malfeasance, they ought to be called out.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The literal TOP business story(below the headline story) on the CNBC app this morning around 8am was that "Tesla is closing stores".

A) That's ridiculous media whoring.

B) Anyone know what closings this references? Just the normal continued closing of certain dedicated(non-service) showrooms?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

.......but I think this is way more shady than I'm comfortable with.

Of course it's shady. It's Tesla. Everything they do is shady. Heck, they don't even actually build many cars, and what they do build (in a tent, by hand) gets dumped way out in the Pacific. And the cars they sell are just on paper so they can sell credits to other car companies. The whole damn thing is shady. It's a house of cards that will obviously coming crashing down soon.









/s
(there are some people that will need it)

 

[Christine69420]

The literal TOP business story(below the headline story) on the CNBC app this morning around 8am was that "Tesla is closing stores".

A) That's ridiculous media whoring.

B) Anyone know what closings this references? Just the normal continued closing of certain dedicated(non-service) showrooms?

Temporarily closing stores in China until virus scare is over. But customers can still order online.

Ref: Earlier posts here.

 

[KarenRei]

If I could change one thing on the long side—I would love to see more aggression. To that point, I believe we should grin when we fight, but give the shorts as good they give. Give ‘em hell but with a happy heart. Fight back with facts and evidence.

If someone is guilty of malfeasance, they ought to be called out.

If anyone wants to fight back, they can browse @ghost_scot's Twitter feed in incognito mode every single day, find out who his gang's current targets are (they search out people with any sort of Tesla problem), and go inform them their victims that the "helpful strangers" who dropped in encouraging them to cancel orders, return vehicles, complain to the media, and sue Tesla are actually short sellers.

Every single day, because they do it every single day.

 

[printf42]

OT

Today we had some elementary school kids visiting where I work and we happened to get a tornado warning so they had to come inside our office because is a designed safety zone. Anyway someone told them that I had a Tesla and they started to ask me questions about my model 3 and then asking questions about the cyber truck etc etc. Tesla's future is brighter than you think...I live in South Carolina we don't have many Teslas around here.

Same feeling here.
I am a car guy, and I talk about cars to my 3yr-old daughter as much as she would listen, but the only cars she would remember and glad to spot out are Teslas.
And the same goes to her friends in pre-school.

I repeat, ~~~ 3 ~~~ years ~~~ olds ~~~!!!

 

[Nocturnal]

Am I the only one that is still thinking about that 2 million dollar purchase of the June 2020 $800 calls? Seems like an arbitrary point for somebody just gambling.

So,

• Between now and June 2020 Bad Case (ignoring major macro problems etc.):
• Corona virus has material impact on China both production/sales/deliveries.
• Seasonally week demand elsewhere.
• Less than optimal production ramp of Y and soft sales. Battery investor day is met with the same reaction as Autonomy Day, plan for 1 million battery met with skepticism and no concrete production ramp for batteries is obvious.
• FSD on city streets is still not released or it's released and it's wonky or causes some high profile crashes. Investors are still gun shy due to continued downturn in stock during February.
• I would add something about competitors but I don't think that's a credible risk this year at all.
• GF Berlin delayed because they find some endangered species of worm.

Between now and June 2020 Good Case -

• Corona virus unwinds and isn't a huge problem for Tesla because of pent up Chinese demand and the Chinese government pumping in cash.
• Model 3 China ramp goes smoothly.
• Q1 demand globally is just ok, but China makes up for it and gives Tesla a small profit. S&P inclusion is all but confirmed.
• Battery investors day discusses 1 million mile battery, an advancement in chemistry that allows another 10%+ in efficiencies and/or cost reductions.
• Realistic plan is rolled out to ramp batteries to crazy high levels and Wall Street listens this time.
• Model Y ramp is fairly smooth and organic demand is strong as people see the huge value compare to alternatives and Tesla breaches into an underserved market (women/moms/families who can't afford an X or S).
• Nav on City Streets is rolled out and social media is filled with people driving to work while only needing to take over for odd ball situations (this will be a huge signal to me personally that Robotaxis are possible and will be in use possibly by 2025).
• Giga Austin confirmed as location for Cybertruck production, along with lots of tweets from POTUS, favorable tax credits, and allowing Tesla to sell locally in TX.
• Ground breaking ceremony for GF Berlin.
• Q2 deliveries rumored to be greater than previous quarters with stretch goal of record deliveries.

After typing this out I do kind of want the SP to tank so I can pick up some calls at like 780.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Several of us are making all these trades within a traditional IRA.

I wish that was me. As a newbie, I’m trapped in short term cap gain limbo for a few more months. It does help keep my finger off the sell button, though.

 

[azaz]

If anyone wants to fight back, they can browse @ghost_scot's Twitter feed in incognito mode every single day, find out who his gang's current targets are (they search out people with any sort of Tesla problem), and go inform them their victims that the "helpful strangers" who dropped in encouraging them to cancel orders, return vehicles, complain to the media, and sue Tesla are actually short sellers.

Every single day, because they do it every single day.

better to make a burner account since he/she/they may go private after seeing this

 

[jhm]

Meanwhile, it was long thought that short interest hovered at about $10B. Over the past few months that seems to have spiked to about $20B.

How much of that is just price movement?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Round numbers represent aspirations to be leery of. What I mean is that SP 1000 was an obvious point to either short or to take some profit/money off the table. I had plans to sell 1/3 of holdings near that level as I am sure many others did. Have learned not to wait for such levels and to sell before them. I failed to adjust to the percentage below given how much the SP appreciated. Drop started at 4.5% less than the target. Of course if everyone feels that way some will sell/short at 5% less. We will see 1000 on second or third approach to it

 

[Tim S]

The Jan 15 date was the highest at $12.9B -- its got a long ways to go to get to $20B. I expect it has increased, but I don't expect the Jan 31 to be above $15B. If shares shorted held steady it would be $16.2B, but that metric has been dropping.

edit: its been dropping 1MM to 2MM every two weeks for the last few months. If that held from 15 Jan to 31 Jan it would be $14.9B to $15.5B so maybe I'm wrong about $15B being broken at end of January. However, I expect the steepness of the more recent rise to have accelerated the net covering.

On Jan 15 the SP was around 500. Now it is close to 800. If shares shorted held steady, dollar amount shorted would be close to $20B.

 

[Nocturnal]

OT

Same feeling here.
I am a car guy, and I talk about cars to my 3yr-old daughter as much as she would listen, but the only cars she would remember and glad to spot out are Teslas.
And the same goes to her friends in pre-school.

I repeat, ~~~ 3 ~~~ years ~~~ olds ~~~!!!

Same. I've always been a car guy, but my kids only get excited about electric cars and specifically Tesla and it's not just me indoctrinating them. I have other parents in their school tell me how much their kids are bugging them to get a Tesla because all the kids think they are cool.

Can we just agree that:

• It's inaccurate that the factory would be shut down in Q2/Q3 - and quite to the contrary, it's supposed to reopen on Monday
• That the quote was in response to a question from a person who had a car scheduled for delivery in Q2, wondering if it might end up pushed back to Q3, and they got a vague sort of "maybe-but-we'll-try-not-to" response

.... and then leave it at that? Erroneous information circulates accidentally. Nobody here is deliberately trying to push bad info.

If this was bad enough that Giga Shanghai would be shutdown until Q3 then the global economy will be in a global depression and none of this will matter anyway.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Right, Andrew Left seems to be a more conventional profit oriented trader. A bit of a maverick Uruk-hai among the hordes of Orcs.

FTFY.

 

[Rammstein]

So if what happened was a short squeeze shouldn’t we be heading down by now. My friends are convinced this was a short squeeze but this latest price action shows there is strength at these levels.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Temporarily closing stores in China until virus scare is over. But customers can still order online.

Ref: Earlier posts here.

Since Q1 and likely most of Q2 production from GF3/Shanghai is already sold out, in-person sales at Tesla Stores in China does not seem to be an impediment, wot?

 

[jerry33]

Neither do I. Frankly, I don't think this is a matter of trust. He is just a talking head and he has air time. He's been swinging with the wind. That's all.

It is same as saying I trust/don't trust the 10PM talk show host. Is is still Letterman?

I thought it was Steve Allen.

 

[Mkorpal]

So if what happened was a short squeeze shouldn’t we be heading down by now. My friends are convinced this was a short squeeze but this latest price action shows there is strength at these levels.

I don't think I'd call it a short squeeze. More like a feeding frenzy.

 

[ninpb]

OT

Same feeling here.
I am a car guy, and I talk about cars to my 3yr-old daughter as much as she would listen, but the only cars she would remember and glad to spot out are Teslas.
And the same goes to her friends in pre-school.

I repeat, ~~~ 3 ~~~ years ~~~ olds ~~~!!!

My 3yr old has S and 3 in hotwheels. WE can't wait to get a CT version.

 

[AudubonB]

The longs are licking their wounds? What wounds?

Now I'm sure there are people that bought over $950 who might be kicking themselves but to generally characterize longs as "licking their wounds" just trips my logic board.

Before I jump into my screed, I'll preface by saying that yes, I know there were some actual humans who did do just that.

BUT....the thought that even ONE of those was a short-selling ghoul needing to cover its loss....

O, The Joy.