Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JBRR]

I'd be (very) surprised if the PIF did so: it's a great ... loss of face to miss out on huge gains and YOLO back in.

If they reenter they would need to file a new 13F filing within 10 days if their ownership increases to 5%+ I assume.

Speaking of - I'm expecting 13F filings soon. Hard to imagine this much trading without SOMEONE going over the 5% treshold.

 

[theschnell]

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Like I said, new shorts selling to covering old shorts (of which Andrew Left is damn lucky he saw the light at the time and is not an old short looking to cover here. But he’ll be one soon enough it appears)

 

[mejojo]

How we know that Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop
"...what is newsworthy is that Tesla’s stock runup in recent days has now satisfied an objective criteria of a bubble that is about to burst. The probability of a crash is now more than 80%, according to that model.

This model was published last year in the Journal of Financial Economics by Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its behavioral finance and financial stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor at Harvard University; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate at that institution."

That's it. I'm out. Hahvahd, you know.

So he's got some SmahtPahk does he???

 

[jbcarioca]

I am with Schwab and interested but ignorant. Can someone provide context -- is $600 million enough ? Am I right in thinking that this amount is meant to satisfy Schwab creditors in the event of Schwab BK ?

These excess policies are quite cheap, as they should be. There is fine print. Further, if SIPC is not enough one can reliably assume that the excess policy will be vastly overmatched anyway. I ignore those.

 

[X Fan]

Talk about mis-timing the market: Saudi Arabia fund dumped nearly all of its Tesla shares in the fourth quarter, filing shows

I guess they needed the money to buy the EPL football club, Newcastle

 

[JustMe]

Never again below 300!

Well not until that first 10:1 split, anyhow

 

[Fobble]

Sold all in a Roth IRA today, @ $906. Wealth manager been pushing sale since $500. (Cost basis $29 and a smidge.) I'm about to tell the manager to lay off trying to sell for rebalancing because I might want to buy it back at $700 which I don't expect will happen.
.

The beauty is it's completely tax free ..

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What a wonderful bonus to know the Saudis missed the entire run-up after $350 and likely were already hedged to cap profits around $330. Just when they needed the money most. LOL!

On another note.....the algos have clearly sparked this wider market rebound from the mini-coronavirus-dip. Anyone know if there will be algo "auto-shorting" out there now that TSLA has run up so high in such a short period? Think there is such a thing?

 

[winfield100]

OT
there is an anemic article on SA urging shorts of TSLA to "Double UP, not give UP" their shorts, by a short
he's way under water and need bailing out by somebody, anybody
the comments are very derisive of him, even by fellow shorts

 

[Prunesquallor]

I have to say that if true then this is great relief to me personally and I'm sure to many Tesla investors - having Saudi influence within Tesla might have become a toxic combination.

Saudi Arabia Has Sold Nearly All Its Tesla Stock -- Barrons.com
1:00 PM ET 2/4/20 | Dow Jones

By Ed Lin

Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund, essentially liquidated its Tesla stock in the fourth quarter. That means that if the fund didn't buy more this year, it has missed out on the remarkable rise in the shares of the electric-car maker.

The fund sold 8.2 million Tesla shares (ticker: TSLA) in the quarter ended Dec. 31, slashing its stake to 39,151 shares. Public Investment disclosed the sale in a form it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday.

Tesla stock has caught fire as of late. One firm said that shares could reach $7,000, and as of Tuesday afternoon, Tesla stock had more than doubled to $904.94. The S&P 500 index has only tacked on 2% year to date.

Public Investment had been Tesla's fourth-largest shareholder, according to S&P Capital IQ.

The fund didn't respond to a request for comment on the stock sale.

On its site, Public Investment says it uses "standardized procedures and guidelines to govern investment decisions, focused on building a diversified portfolio which achieves attractive, risk-adjusted returns over the long-term."

 

[MarcusMaximus]

How we know that Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop
"...what is newsworthy is that Tesla’s stock runup in recent days has now satisfied an objective criteria of a bubble that is about to burst. The probability of a crash is now more than 80%, according to that model.

This model was published last year in the Journal of Financial Economics by Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its behavioral finance and financial stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor at Harvard University; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate at that institution."

That's it. I'm out. Hahvahd, you know.

I actually don’t entirely disagree. I don’t think we’ll ever see $300 again, and I’d be surprised if it ever dips below $400, but this reeks of a squeeze. And when it runs out of shorts to squeeze, the SP is likely to crash back down(albeit to a level above the previous floor).

In the long run, I don’t doubt Tesla will be a $160B+ company. But today I don’t think it makes sense. (Side note: it feel SUPER weird being the pessimist here)

 

[SageBrush]

you're investing in a global company that will soon be fairly immune to any one part of the world going into crisis.

That is naive. It is also dangerous to put all your eggs in one basket

 

[neezer]

The beauty is it's completely tax free ..

Yeah, most of my positions are in my IRA. Used house money to buy, and it'll be tax free, plan to keep that account's holdings till I retire. I will play and maybe use as future spending money with my holdings elsewhere, I hope. Also started funding a ROTH with TSLA shares...

 

[Sudre]

Adding to the insanity - and we're pretty sure this chart will change by end of day, I've no idea how! - TSLA is 'approaching' Toyota to be the most valuable auto manufacturer in the world. 'Only' $70 B to go... Remember that Toyota made 27 times more cars than Tesla last year.

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While I think extenuating circumstances have us running up so fast I have to ask.....

How many battery packs did Toyota make?
How many solar panels did they sell?
How many auto dealerships do they actually own?
How many gas stations do they own?
How many utility grade back up power systems did they sell?
How many roofs did they install?
How is their self driving program going?
How is their over the air software updates to support that self driving going?
What is Toyota’s short interest?
Did a bunch of MM naked short a bunch of shares last Friday to try to hold their SP below a certain price?

This is a rare moment when the stars are aligning for Tesla.

 

[Curt Renz]

I suspect that almost all of the TSLA weak longs have bailed out during these last two high volume trading sessions. Meanwhile, strong longs are standing pat. These two factors should keep asked prices high and likely continuing to rise.

 

[Beltsbear]

You know their plan is to use StarLink to do global home planet defense. I mean, against aliens. He is Elon Musk, he thinks big.

Wait for his next SpaceX product. “Not a mass driver”

 

[azaz]

we had two big pushed today to push it down $50 and it just didn't matter.

t

 

[jerry33]

While I think extenuating circumstances have us running up so fast I have to ask.....

How many auto dealerships do they actually own?
.

I believe they own all the dealerships in Japan.

 

[willow_hiller]

How we know that Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop
"...what is newsworthy is that Tesla’s stock runup in recent days has now satisfied an objective criteria of a bubble that is about to burst. The probability of a crash is now more than 80%, according to that model.

This model was published last year in the Journal of Financial Economics by Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its behavioral finance and financial stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor at Harvard University; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate at that institution."

That's it. I'm out. Hahvahd, you know.

Found an actual copy of the paper here: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/bffs_20170217.pdf

I think the author of that Market Watch piece is just applying their rough predictions of crashes to the recent percent rise in the share price, instead of actually re-running their models which account for a whole host of other independent variables.

Also, funny thing is in Table 8 they test their "Sell on bubble signal" strategy against a hold strategy. In some cases "hold" beats "sell" by a few percentage points; in a few cases "sell" beats "hold," but only by a few percentage points over a 4 year time horizon. I'm also betting they're not accounting for the reduced tax burden you generally receive by holding.

 

[RobStark]