Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Imma gonna go down to the dumpster and pick out a new used box.

I'm really disappointed in you promoting such a binge lifestyle now - did a billion dollars or two more really change things so much for you to engage in such excesses??

 

[Todd Burch]

Great way to get stopped out on a temporary $200 downswing

That would have to be a $200 downswing during a day when I'm not paying attention. Guess I'll increase it though.

 

[Dare]

Mobile app? Does it work outside US?

‎CNBC: Stock Market & Business

Not sure about that. A VPN would fix that if it doesn’t.

 

[Zero CO2]

Hey, a lot of you guys made some real money lately. I see lots of you regulars are not Supporting Members to TMC! Come on guys, step up to the plate already![/QU

Done. Thanks for the nudge. Been looking at these but always talked myself out of it because I don't NEED one at all and then they were sold out for a bit.

Nobody actually NEEDS one

My wife was like" what did You order from Tesla now" ?

" A t-shirt with a broken window" "and you actually paid for that" ? (I am cheap )

then it hit me ... I have never had this type of brand loyalty to any company or even sports team for that matter ... brand loyalty is what will get us to ARK's uber bull case ....go TSLA

 

[Sudre]

i can’t wait. I want Tesla to come out with the Plaid and I am waiting for the Roadster...but until then, the Taycan is IT. And, even with the plaid, I am not sure that fit and finish or the quality interior and materials will be as good. I hope I am wrong, but it looks bad being a hater. Go try the Taycan and then give me an honest review...or, do you still want to have blinders on. Again, isn’t this what we said when everyone talked down about Tesla? There is room for competition...we should welcome it.

Unlike many here, I’d say get it. Particularly if you don’t have to wait months to actually get it.... as in it’s in the showroom and you just pick it up. Otherwise you are still waiting for the promises. I think all EVs are a good thing and the more Toy’cans they can sell the more EVs they will put out. At the higher price it better have a stunning interior and fit. Also more available and faster charging. It should also be able to drive itself with a software update in a few years.

Now if money was no object to me, yes, I would buy it now just to support EVs. It looks like a great, stunning car.

 

[Eugene Ash]

I express gratitude to my alarm and the cancel button this morning

 

[Dylan]

Just got myself a badge too. Thanks to everyone here for all the great info.

I see a discussion on buying a Taycan with your gains. What? Why anyone here would sponsor those guys with their diesel scandal and their lame compliance vehicle is beyond me.

I love Tesla for a lot of things, especially their mission

 

[Gerasimental]

PLEASE NO MORE TAYCAN POSTS. WRONG THREAD!

 

[Fact Checking]

I'll also note that the daily traded volume is very deceiving. Nowhere near to this many long term holders are selling out each day. The vast majority of volume is market making and short term delta hedging adjustments with the same shares changing hands over and over again.

So the official figure of HFT activities on Nasdaq high caps is around 70%, but that's deceptive: these bots will disappear during market volatility, because they want to pick nickels and front-run you, not engage in risky breakouts and large transients.

Witness yesterday's and today's pre-market trading: 4.5 million shares traded already. I'm 90% sure that very few algos are trading during the pre-market - it's way too volatile and low volume normally. Look at the huge, -$60 transient from $890 down to $830 at 8:00 ET when the retail flows came in:

That's the kind of risk that HFT algos don't like, at all. They like high leverage trading in high liquidity environments which are not too volatile.

So yes, I think more than ~30 million TSLA shares traded hands this week already, into the hands of accumulators ...

Note that options market makers are currently 'accumulators' too: there's a lot of long term options that are now coming into the money, with no delta hedge present so far. They will do as little swing trading as they can get away with.

 

[Nocturnal]

Hey everyone, just a reminder to breathe. It's just money after all. (Lots of money for most of us)

 

[ZeApelido]

I should also mention that I have test driven the Taycan twice and had about an hour each time with the car with no salesperson in the passenger seat, and I can tell you after owning many performance and luxury vehicles including Porsche’s, MB and 3 Tesla’s, the Taycan IS THE REAL DEAL. Probably the best overall car and best Porsche as of today. I say this stating previously that Tesla was on a higher paradigm than any other car on the market!!

"Sir, this a Wendy's"

 

[AquaMan]

This "get rich quick" situation is nice and all... but frankly it's scary. I wish it would move a little slower. I've got a few thousand in cash I'd like to spend on another call option, but I don't know if I'll be able to catch it.

Also, it's moving SOOOO fast. Everything I've learned about stock patterns tells me "this isn't normal". I used to be right about 55% of the time anticipating the next day's action, but now? This stock is completely alien to me.

If I'm going to be a millionaire, I'd be more comfortable if it happens over the span of a month than a day.

 

[FrankSG]

Did I see that right? Looks like something on the order of 700k shares traded during the opening minute??

EDIT 700k, not 700M

 

[Favguy]

Looks like the day is starting out with a little profit taking, hardly surprising considering the opening price, it'll be fascinating to see how today plays out.

 

[Nocturnal]

There is your dip folks. Have at it

 

[gerebgraus]

Disagree, Tesla had a billion positive cash flow last quarter. Present revenues fund future growth. No need for bonds.

If you disagree then you can explain why
1. Tesla has not covered all their properties with solar panels?
2. Why have they increased their loans for Giga Shanghai?
3. Why Musk talks extensively about working capital needs and minimizing time between paying for parts and getting paid for the car?
4.5.6. etc. We could continue.
The idea that profit (that will increase substantially as both revenue and gross margin will increase) is sufficient for very fast expansion is false. I also believe that expansion will be much faster than 40-50%. In two years Tesla will be able to compete not only in premium cars and Camry level cars, but with econoboxes as well. And if they can do it profitably they will want to do it.

 

[FrankSG]

Looks like the day is starting out with a little profit taking, hardly surprising considering the opening price, it'll be fascinating to see how today plays out.

I'm guessing that options holders in particular took profits at open. There's a TON of outstanding options at $800 this Friday, and those went up like 100x in the last 24 hours. As a result of delta hedging, those option sellers probably sold a ton of shares in opening minutes.

 

[DrMazeppa]

There is your dip folks. Have at it

Yes, I just did.

ops, I said I would do nothing, but couldn't resist...

 

[EVGhost3]

One thing I’m trying to figure out. To buy more right now or not to? Been debating that since the $600s but every day I wake up with regret. I’m ready to listen to financial advice from strangers on the internet. So tell me!

 

[Zero CO2]

s

I outlined my hypothesis yesterday:

"Guys, TSLA float is 141.9 million shares, and today 46.3 million shares were traded, which is 32.6% of the float.

This is truly remarkable: I believe what is going on is that 3 forces are reducing the float:

• "Don't sell below $5,000" long term holders - they are effectively insiders who don't sell,
• S&P 500 indexing accumulators who'll need these shares in a few months and who won't sell them,
• Shorts covering - where short positions covered destroy a matching number of long shares.

32.6% of the float trading in a single day might be a signal of too few shares available in the float already ...

If true then the squeeze might become more VW-ish."​

I forgot to list a fourth, fifth and sixth factor:

• Options writers and market makers delta-hedging. There's an incredible amount of open interest on the call side, well over 50 million shares equivalent ...
• Some really bug funds with a short TSLA position or naked call options might be close to blowing out (is Jim Chanos's fund fine - did they never write naked call options?) - and Wall Street might be smelling the bl**d in the water. Why sell to them before it's clear who exactly those getting squeezed are? This would further reduce the float ...
• Retail investors who bought the dip last year between May and October are still a couple of months away to be able to lock in long term capital gains tax rates. Selling right now would mean giving up 37% of the investment position (!), so steep was the rise, and so high the gains which moved many retail investors into the highest U.S. tax bracket. This takes out from the float those investors who'd otherwise consider divesting a bit, to dip-buy at least 37% lower. But to sell now they'd have to be convinced that the dip will be significantly deeper than 40% ... which is a tall order right now.

If true then the "effective float" of TSLA might have become too small, and the buying comes from distressed shorts and S&P 500 exposed investment funds fighting over too few fish in the pond.

Also, both shorts covering and S&P 500 exposed funds buying their ~0.4% allocation will further decrease the float, which presses up the price as new buyers have to convince existing shareholders with higher and higher price targets to part with their shares...

So it's a vicious circle, a self-reinforcing cycle, and the narrowing of the float created the VW squeeze as well. (Although under very different circumstances.)

I have no idea whether my hypothesis is true, but the percentage of the official float traded, which must in reality be significantly smaller, is truly remarkable.

So what is the solution "Stock Split" to increase liquidity ?