Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I didn't quite understand the markets response to the Q4 numbers. YoY was flat. The price had gone up by alot which implied high expectations, yet the response implies that this was a better than expected report. So I don't quite understand how the expectations are high and low at the same time. What am I missing? What was the postive news that the market hadn't expected?

Your reaction to Q4 results was:

• backward looking:
  • the highlight of the Q4 report to you was YoY revenue growth of two dissimilar quarters ...

The market reaction to Q4 on the other hand was:

• forward looking:
  • Tesla guidance for FY2020 went from production capacity of 415,00 vehicles/year to 790,000/year: +90% expansion.
  • Q4 FCF was $1.1b, which signalled to the market that Tesla has more than enough internal cash flow to finance the guided growth.
  • Model Y production was pulled forward by another 3 months - one of the expected sources of growth.

Tesla is a growth company, and Q4 increased the exponent of the growth function...

The fact that you didn't even realize why the market reacted so enthusiastically to Q4 results IMO suggests that you don't really understand Tesla's business model.

 

[Zaxxon]

Weekend OT: I'm attending the Fully Charged Live conference this weekend, and saw...

Spoiler: One of the few remaining operational...

GM EV1 vehicles.



Along with both Rivian models, the Taycan, e-Tron, and more Teslas than you could shake a stick at.

 

[dl003]

To be honest I was taken back at first as Q4 net income was 45m lower than Q3 but then I realized Q4 didnt have the 60 ish M gain from currency arbitration while incurring a 90M stock option expense. QoQ Q4 was actually 100M higher so execution was on point. There went another leg of TSLAQ FUD: "fraud propped up by one time item"

 

[Cosmacelf]

Weekend OT: I'm attending the Fully Charged Live conference this weekend, and saw...

Spoiler: One of the few remaining operational...

GM EV1 vehicles.

View attachment 507078 View attachment 507079 View attachment 507080

Along with both Rivian models, the Taycan, e-Tron, and more Teslas than you could shake a stick at.

Let us know if you hear anything about Rivian. There has been precious little new information coming out of that company.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I also think that Tesla has a roadmap to a ~50% reduction in bty costs. In addtion to the Maxwell roadmap, Elon recently commented that bty 'modules' are an artifact of poor organizational design, and in the future there will be no separate 'module' and 'pack' teams, only a single 'bty' team. Look for a significant cost reduction when simplified.

I've commented before about the possibility of merging multiple cells into a pack which is manufactured as a unit. Going further, the whole battery could be manufactured as a unit. There are probably further savings to be made by merging battery and car body, so the there is no skateboard, rather a under body designed as a unit.

 

[Cosmacelf]

To be honest I was taken back at first as Q4 net income was 45m lower than Q3 but then I realized Q4 didnt have the 60 ish M gain from currency arbitration while incurring a 90M stock option expense. QoQ Q4 was actually 100M higher so execution was on point. There went another leg of TSLAQ FUD: "fraud propped up by one time item"

Yes, thank you GAAP for mucking up earnings for all growth stocks by forcing a non cash balance sheet item (stock compensation) onto the P/L so that we have to immediately subtract it out every time we analyze a P/L. Grumble, grumble...

 

[anthonyj]

Mark Spiegel levels of delusion

 

[theschnell]

I've yeeted my way to substantial success on 3/20 and 4/17 510, 540, and 600 calls, but I really wonder if I should be taking profits and rolling them forward or just holding them for awhile and seeing what happens. With expirations 2-3 months out, I feel like I could chill with them awhile and see, or I could seriously consider exercising the 510's and 540's and turning them into shares. Any insights would be helpful on the decision-making process to determine whether it's better to sell calls that are deep ITM or exercise? Also, what do people think about holding these calls versus rolling them forward, especially considering the possible timing of battery day? Thanks to anyone who replies.

My understanding of the primary reason to exercise vs sell and roll is if you are trading in a taxable account and selling them would trigger short-term gains. My understanding is that if you exercise and then hold the call and related converted shares for more than a year in combination, then it becomes a short term capital gain.

Beyond that, I don’t know of any reason to exercise but there may be other reasons I’m unaware of.

 

[Zaxxon]

Let us know if you hear anything about Rivian. There has been precious little new information coming out of that company.

Unfortunately they're eyes-only. They sure look cool and funtional, though.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Super Bowl Sunday .... I sure hope we see a lot of commercials for EV's. It is great knowing that other companies are going to pay hundreds of millions of dollars (over the course of the next few years) to educate the public about EV's, after which people will check out Tesla's offerings and find out how superior they are!

I had a discussion with two people yesterday ... one of which had just purchased a new car that day about EV's. Neither of them knew or could understand that Tesla's did not even use traditional motor oil? I was explaining the benefits of ownership and mentioned how little maintenance was involved. They were both floored ....the one who had not purchased a car was telling me his car was going to be replaced soon and he was going to check out a Tesla.

It amazes me how little the average person knows about EVs .... the revolution is just starting.

Cheers to the longs

 

[Artful Dodger]

I've commented before about the possibility of merging multiple cells into a pack which is manufactured as a unit. Going further, the whole battery could be manufactured as a unit. There are probably further savings to be made by merging battery and car body, so the there is no skateboard, rather a under body designed as a unit.

Yes, Tesla recently patented such an integrated design. Teslarati published this article last Oct:

Tesla patent paves way for compact battery systems that are easier to produce



Cheers!

 

[gene]

I bought my Model S in early 2013, and to the best of my recollection, there was an App available Day 1...

That is correct. My Model S was March 2013. There was an app at the time. Only 6 Superchargers worldwide.

 

[dl003]

Mark Spiegel levels of delusion

View attachment 507082

In the future you can summon your car instead of taking out your phone. Checkmate.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Cool, what instrument(s) and genres?

I'm an unprofessional musician myself, have been destroying basslines for the last 40 years...

Ha.

Mostly Guitar ... as my screen name would imply. All manners of guitar ... Electric, Acoustic, Nylon String and also a host of stringed instruments as well ... Mandolin, Banjo and Ukulele.

All styles .... as a musician these days you have to have a lot of versatility in order to stay working .... I used to do a lot of pop music and touring but after having a family I work more in town and do a wide variety of stuff from recording to musical theater work. Regardless of how successful any musician has been, and I've done fairly well throughout out the years, it's really a rough proposition to do this for a living at this point BUT .... my other love has been investing and thankfully that has paid of really well so in all honesty I make exponentially more from investing than my day job. I basically work for fun at this point ..... Thank you Steve Jobs, Tim Cook and ELON !!!!

Cheers to the longs ...

 

[theschnell]

Mark Spiegel levels of delusion

View attachment 507082

Last I checked a Tesla vehicle could not fit in my pocket and go anywhere with me.

That said, if 5, 10, or 15 years from now Tesla created their own phone or watch or neural implant, I’m sure it would kick apples butt.

 

[jerry33]

Unfortunately they're eyes-only. They sure look cool and funtional, though.

They do? I thought they looked like an Edsel.

 

[jerry33]

That is correct. My Model S was March 2013. There was an app at the time. Only 6 Superchargers worldwide.

That's what I recall as well. App from day 1 (March 2013).

 

[elasalle]

Mark Spiegel levels of delusion

View attachment 507082

Rest of logic in Patreon

 

[Unpilot]

I hate to do it, but given that:

- It's the weekend, so OT is slightly more tolerable

- This forum appreciates importance of cats

I hate to do it, but given that:

- It's the weekend, so OT is slightly more tolerable

- This forum appreciates importance of cats

- He is one of the regular posters here


I'm afraid I must DOX one of our members here...


(I hope the mods tread kindly on this post. )

No way that is Dodger ...maybe @Krugerrand ...but really does not look grumpy enough

 

[theschnell]

I usually check cramers recommendation before pullin trigger on investment BUT as contrarian indicator. When he supports an investment I am in or about to get in, it makes me look twice. I have done extremely well with this. I am still long on tsla but anyone who followed his recommendations on tesla until recently would be out of the market

Does this mean it’s about time to get out or at least deleverage?

Related, I was surprised by the strength going into close on Friday. I feel like the squeeze or at least a much tighter hug may be about to commence. If so, it seems like being prepared to deleverage if things look squeezy might be a good idea. Like if we hit $1,000 in a month or two type of squeeze...

I think I’ll take some off at that price.

However, keep in mind I also took some off at $430. I converted to a call position, but rolled that up and out too early as well and left a lot of money on the table.

I am being more patient now...