Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

By the definition of assigning a 'Buy' rating, yes, AJ has been a bull all this time. His price targets were always lower than what it was trading at, but he always rated it 'Buy' until now.

 

[Todd Burch]

So if Tesla are conducting cold weather testing of the Model Y presently, how does that square with the February delivery rumor? Hard to imagine they would still be doing testing this close to supposed deliveries. I'm growing increasingly skeptical of the Reddit rumor from the other day.

Tesla Model Y prototypes spotted cold-weather testing in Minnesota snow - Electrek

Could be tweaking of software for stability/traction control, for one. Or as some have said, not testing at all.

 

[JusRelax]

By the definition of assigning a 'Buy' rating, yes, AJ has been a bull all this time. His price targets were always lower than what it was trading at, but he always rated it 'Buy' until now.

What a [bunch of] bull!

 

[CyberDutchie]

So if Tesla are conducting cold weather testing of the Model Y presently, how does that square with the February delivery rumor? Hard to imagine they would still be doing testing this close to supposed deliveries. I'm growing increasingly skeptical of the Reddit rumor from the other day.

Tesla Model Y prototypes spotted cold-weather testing in Minnesota snow - Electrek

I watched Rob Maurer’s Tesla Daily Podcast yesterday about Model Y Delivery Timeline, it is excellent. He is skeptical about the Reddit rumors as well, however, he does think that first deliveries will start in February.

However, it’s not something to get overly excited about. It fits the official Tesla guidance of Model Y volume production in summer 2020 exactly. So Tesla is just executing according to the current plan of record, nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[deffu]

I am of the opinion it's going to get brutal, fast, for the Japanese auto industry in the next few years.

Nissan is basically a Zombie waiting to die. Mitsubishi too.
Toyota downright refuses to bother with EV tech... Their conservativism has morphed into laziness. They've also been having weak sales in the US.
Pretty much the same with Subaru. (except the weak US sales part)

Japan is by far the largest net exporter of ICE vehicles (9.7m production vs. 5.2m sales)

Japan is already massively in debt and wont be able to bail out them all.

While much of the focus has been put on Germany, I think cracks will start to show in Japan, and when they do they'll worsen quickly.

it's going to be like AAPL/Intel taking back the lead in electronics industry from Sony/Panasonic/Hitachi. In information technology era, they can't keep up with the pace of innovation happening at companies in silicon valley. They probably cant even compete with Chinese EV makers in the future.

 

[Tslynk67]

Bless us and splash us...

Looks like another winning short for Einhorn!

 

[Rb48888]

Since we're after-hours, @Curt Renz I just wanted to say thank you. Polkas aside, I appreciate the fact that you keep pulse on media mentions, post them here for posterity, and provide additional insight from your history and experience in financial TV.

I know we struggle to find a balance of appropriate comments for this thread. Almost always, when I see your posts, I'm reminded of the time and sanity I'm saving by viewing that content inline with the excellent commentary here - rather than having to search for it separately myself.

I hope you approve of my giving a small donation to @KarenRei 's sequestering project as a thanks to you both, and in honor of today's closing ATH.

 

[Singuy]

E2 tracks clean jobs to help US politicians and others understand the tangible benefits of clean tech businesses in the areas of the politicians’ voter bases.

E2 creates a variety of detailed reports by area, which can be handy for investors as well as citizens and politicians. For example, here’s a link to the report for the Midwest: Clean Jobs Midwest 2019 | 737,000 clean energy jobs across Midwest

This data sheet in this image summarizes the US:
View attachment 503564

See these reports are a snap shot of what is happening TODAY. You know there was a time when malls were hiring as well as Amazon. To write a report about how Amazon is creating jobs at the time is a true story, but we now see the fallout of what happened with the efficiencies due to data collection and robotic fulfilment centers.

I am only talking about Tesla here. I am not verse in other green energy tech that can create new opportunities in which there may not even be an alternative to disrupt which results in net positive job creation. As of right now imagining a future of only Teslas, many jobs will be displaced. Elon knows it too, hence his support for Yang.

 

[StealthP3D]

So if Tesla are conducting cold weather testing of the Model Y presently, how does that square with the February delivery rumor? Hard to imagine they would still be doing testing this close to supposed deliveries. I'm growing increasingly skeptical of the Reddit rumor from the other day.

Tesla Model Y prototypes spotted cold-weather testing in Minnesota snow - Electrek

Cold weather testing doesn't stop once the car is released. They could just be fine-tuning the adjustments in software they will need between the Model 3 and Model Y.

 

[bhzmark]

go inside the station to pay.

that will stop when I get my Model Y.

Reason enough to get a used model 3 for now if remotely possible.

 

[EinSV]

I recommend watching this video made by our fellow TMC member. It will keep you calm dealing with crazy TSLA price action no matter it's up or down.
<iframe width="1124" height="632" src="

" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Without getting into all the details in @DaveT's video I have a similar investment approach -- primarily long-term buy and hold with a goal of a 10X+ return -- summarized below from a 2017 post:

I originally invested in TSLA in November 2012 at $31.xx believing it had a good chance of increasing 10X or more within 5-10 years. We initially hit 10X even faster than I hoped for (4.5 years). IMO, all the pieces are now in place for another 10X increase within the next 5-10 years (to $3000+) and potentially much more. While there are always risks, I like the odds of a 10X increase happening within 10 years better now than I did in 2012.

I've found the long-term perspective and 10X goal very helpful in terms of staying relaxed and not making emotional decisions through the ups and downs in the share price. I do still enjoy the ups much more than the downs.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Reason enough to get a used model 3 for now if remotely possible.

Used model 3’s are still just about new price. Might as well get a new one.

 

[woof]

I think Shorters are asking the wrong questions here about the competition. Instead of worrying about competition coming after Tesla, they should be worried about how much companies such as VW, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc. are covering up? I would hate to invest in a stock that has its company hiding the facts from investors and the government about its emission scandal. Is it 500,000 cars? 1 million cars? Or 10 million cars? Where does it stop and where does it begin?

Well, to play shorter's advocate (not that I advocate shorting...) they firmly believe it is Tesla that is hiding facts from investors and the government, and think sudden acceleration affects 500,000 cars. So they have the same gut feelings about Tesla that we have with the aforementioned diesel companies.

But we know the shorts are wrong...right?

 

[SunCatcher]

Today’s closing:

--0.3% FCAU
--0.2% F
--0.1% GM
+0.5% TSLA (all-time closing high)

The zombie apocalypse mob, retreat from TSLA, and descend upon the legacy auto makers stocks; their new prey. The zombies representing the short sellers; if they aren't dead yet, they will be soon enough. Or wish they were.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Definitely too early for those without HW3, but I did a short drive Sunday and was surprised when, after exiting the interstate (on navigate on autopilot) my car slowed down, signaled through lanes on the exit ramp and rolled to a stop at the end where a stop sign was. The next stop it did all of that except I chickened out on it stopping -- it was a red light and the car did not seem to be stopping for it.

My guess is that it is just an extension of NoA, but this is the first I've had it do more than interchanges and I've made this drive before a few times -- but not since the "FSD preview" release.

That's been normal behavior when exiting a highway on NoA for a while, sort of. (this on a HW2.5 Model 3)

My experience is that NoA will disengage somewhere along the exit ramp, returning to regular AP, and then the car will begin slowing down to a stop regardless of the distance to the next stop (in my experience, well ahead of where the stop would be, so stopping in the middle of the road/ramp). If you apply the accelerator and then let go (TACC won't take over speed regulation until you let go) it will resume whatever speed TACC is set to in AP mode - and it won't stop for any intersection.

 

[ClownMouth]

hey guys - I posted over in the options thread earlier but haven't received any responses. I'm hoping since it's after hours those who are well-versed in options strategies (LEAPS as stock replacement) might be willing to chime in over there: Advanced TSLA Options Trading

Also, a few weeks back I purchased the www.teslanaire.com domain. With the recent run-up I figured this term might return to forum/MSM terminology and I wanted to be sure someone in this community had it. I don't have a real plan for it right now but this forum has been extremely helpful to many of us (myself included) and learning about Tesla/Elon often leads to researching other clean tech/green issues that positively impact society which is very cool. Thanks.

 

[dl003]

Well, to play shorter's advocate (not that I advocate shorting...) they firmly believe it is Tesla that is hiding facts from investors and the government, and think sudden acceleration affects 500,000 cars. So they have the same gut feelings about Tesla that we have with the aforementioned diesel companies.

But we know the shorts are wrong...right?

I think if you begin with their core thesis that is Elon is a lucky conman who has never come up with anything new, their entire argument collapses pretty quickly. I made a living back in 2007 with Paypal. It was revolutionary. I know that much.

 

[TradingInvest]

HEPA air filters don't filter particles as small as viruses. Almost nothing does, including those N95 masks which are always so popular during flu season.

OT
"Lab study supports use of N95 respirators for flu protection. ... Current guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that flu viruses spread primarily via virus-laden large droplets from coughs and sneezes."

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Lol I short term trade a lot. In this case I've had to butterfly my position at a loss. It happens, but it still makes me a little sad. My friend actually just talked me out of my previous post. I've removed all of my September put spread hedges in order to buy back my short calls. I'm not fully exposed bullishly again and I've spent 15k on put butterflies, spreads, and naked puts expiring January 31. Its pretty gross considering I'm expecting Tesla to pull in 100mm+ in profit more than last quarter. But I've been right on Tesla turning profits and wrong about how the share price reacted in the past. This 15k is almost guaranteed to go to zero, but I don't have the stomach to go through another massive downturn again.

Feel free to flame me and post about how its all about the long term. Apparently I hate money.

I get it completely. I went down to low six figures from seven figures portfolio.
It took lots of time to rebuild it.

After rebuilding majority of value of portfolio, the way I've been handling it is to 1. remove leverage, or keep leverage at most 10-20% of value of portfolio , and then, 2. every time TSLA goes for a run, I sell bit by bit - sold 40% so far on this run

 

[StealthP3D]

Honestly, I think I've been traumatized by TSLA. With my model I (thanks in very very VERY large part to members of this forum at the time) predicted the first quarterly profit against an expected loss. That night I celebrated, danced, had a drink slept like a baby. The next morning the stock shot up ever so briefly and then went straight down and didnt stop. It seems at times you can be right and still be very wrong.

To be accurate, I don't think you were traumatized by TSLA as much as you were traumatized by the relationship you have with your stock holdings. If you think you can protect against that by buying downside protection, I think you're misleading yourself. Because that protection has a cost that, over time, becomes a huge drag on the performance of your portfolio.

Tesla right now has nothing but tailwinds and clear skies ahead as far as I can see.

I recommend you focus on that. I have found it's best to not think of your holdings as being money but instead view your shares for what they really are, fractional ownership of the company that you intend to hold until the company's growth prospects slow down. Along the way the investment community will value those holdings at wildly varying levels but the actual or intrinsic value of the company (and your holdings) tends to only grow over time. The share price only matters when it's time to cash out and move on.