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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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despite refreshing the page, Market Watch can't seem to grok the new high: they are still showing the 52 week high as 548.58 :p

marketwatch-dayrange.jpg
 
It would remove all that competition from the taycan.

Your point taycan.


Why does Toyota still have a higher market cap than Tesla?

I'm serious, I know they currently do huge volume and are quite profitable but it makes no sense - they are about to fall on harder times. They may be able to extend their ICE business two or three years longer than most big OEM's due to their initial volume, diverse offerings and perhaps their ability to meet emissions by juggling product mix, but they are still dying in terms of growing cash flows and profits. Are their properties around the world highly valuable for other purposes perhaps? Will they become a real estate company?

Just wondering why anyone would think their money was safe there

Toyota has been printing money for decades by building run-of-the-mill cars. A manufacturing juggernaut. So I guess it's the ole "when they get serious about EVs, er, hydrogen" saw - without thinking through the seismic shifts that entails. But the race is on :cool::

Woven City is a fully connected ecosystem powered by hydrogen fuel cells to be built at the base of Mt. Fuji in Japan.

This “living laboratory” will include full time residents and researchers who will test and develop technologies such as autonomy, robotics, personal mobility and smart homes, in a real-world environment.

We welcome all those inspired to improve the way we live in the future, to take advantage of this unique research ecosystem and join us in our quest to create an ever-better way of life and mobility for all.
Toyota Woven City
 
Predicting the Cybertruck sales rate precisely is easy:

Essentially unlimited. Tesla will sell them as fast as they can make them for years to come at any conceivable ramp rate. Unless it can't get a 5-star safety rating (which is a distinct possibility) or they need to raise the announced pricing (or there are other "catches"), people will be falling all over themselves to get this thing.

I will concede, it won't sell all that well in Europe. But the other markets dwarf Europe for truck sales anyway.
That's what's so great about this new reality where raising funds costs nothing and the brand is standing alone at the top. They can produce and sell literally ANYTHING they want, even a ridiculous looking truck.

Personally I think the optimal move from here is to sell pack/drivetrains to a Ford competitor starting in 2023ish to accelerate the truck transition. Obviously I want absurd profit margins on these skateboards. Toyota Tacoma EV perhaps? I'd buy 9 of those.
 
With regard to Toyota, my thoughts:

They have succeeded in making a name for themselves as a manufacturer whose cars are highly reliable and profitable. However, they have done so precisely because they are very conservative, both from a design perspective and from a technical perspective. It's not super-difficult to master something when you do it the same way for decades.

While conservatism has benefitted them in the past, it could very well be their downfall in the future. First shown by their flawed decision to pursue hydrogen fuel cells and their inability to move on the EV front, their apparent lack of desire to put their neck out on the line for new technology will soon become a weight around their neck.
 
Even in my son's portfolio, his 211 shares are now 55.42% of his account! He may never have to work unless he is bored and wants to. The first purchase I made for him was 100 shares @ $30.09 on 06/13/2012. The highest price paid was $298 on 11/02/2017.

It's not healthy to give grown kids more money than they need to live. They need the satisfaction of making their own lives.

You should convert his long TSLA position into a short TSLA position (for your son's sake). ;) /s
 
I toured the Fremont factory on 12/31/2019. All I can say under signed NDA is I would not hold your breath for 2/2020. Then again, I'm not a production line installation consultant so wtf do I know? If they can build an entire GF3 in China in record time, maybe they can bring up and test a Model Y robotic final assembly line in record time also?? Time (or another factory tour under NDA! :cool:) will tell...

This is not under NDA but educated guesses. Since the Model Y shares ~70% parts with the 3, then it seems they could have hand-assembled many test Model Y's and that is what we are seeing on the roads. My tour was abbreviated for New Year's Eve so the tram did not take us to see the huge stamping presses. My guess is they already have final or near-final molds for Model Y body panels and have stamped out enough of them to hand assemble the Model Y's they needed for testing.

They are called dies and die sets, not molds. Molds are what are used in making the castings and plastic parts. Different.
 
While Nasdaq early trading opens at 4am, few investors have access to the platform so early and liquidity is usually poor.

7am and 8am ET are when early trading facilities of big U.S. brokerages open, the margin call and other early trades usually accelerate at those timestamps. (13:00 and 14:00 central European time.)

So the early trading volume distribution is usually:
  • 4am-7am: low volume
  • 7am-8am: moderate volume
  • 8am-9:30am: moderate to high volume
FWIIW, yesterday 7am-8am there was a weak bear attempt trying to push from $510 and getting to $507, only to be blown away by the 8am bullish price action.

(Or it might have been a clever and cheap head fake by a bullish fund, or a pessimistic investor. We'll never know. :D)
Ah, this explains why yesterday's pre-market looked like a step function! Thanks for knowing this!
 
Toyota's strategy at the moment seems to be to concentrate on plug-in hybrids whilst they wait for a breakthrough in solid-state batteries (good luck with that!). They're coming out with the Toyota RAV4 Prime in 2021:

2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime

I guess they're hoping to keep selling enough of these to meet emissions targets over the next few years.

The trouble with that strategy IMO is that BEVs will continue to get better and cheaper during that time and a complicated PHEV will make less and less sense.

All the Japanese auto makers seem to have a similar strategy.