.
THAT'S a publication that deserves more subscriptions!!
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Why does Toyota still have a higher market cap than Tesla?
I'm serious, I know they currently do huge volume and are quite profitable but it makes no sense - they are about to fall on harder times. They may be able to extend their ICE business two or three years longer than most big OEM's due to their initial volume, diverse offerings and perhaps their ability to meet emissions by juggling product mix, but they are still dying in terms of growing cash flows and profits. Are their properties around the world highly valuable for other purposes perhaps? Will they become a real estate company?
Just wondering why anyone would think their money was safe there.
Would today be the real start of the squeeze?
First the unicorn guy abandoned his TSLA puts, and was not even trying to double down(smart move on not shorting the stock, have to give him credit on that).
Now POTUS said “going to help” Tesla/Elon. Many shorts would just give up.
I feel many of the shorts based their thesis on conspiracy theories, that no matter how well Tesla does, big oil wants and would be able to kill it. But with the POTUS commenting “Elon is a genius, we have to protect geniuses”, the conspiracy just doesn’t hold up.
For shorts it’s not even a prisoners dilemma anymore. It’s more like “I don’t need to out run the lion, I only need to out run you” situation.
First the unicorn guy abandoned his TSLA puts, and was not even trying to double down(smart move on not shorting the stock, have to give him credit on that).
Now POTUS said “going to help” Tesla/Elon. Many shorts would just give up.
I feel many of the shorts based their thesis on conspiracy theories, that no matter how well Tesla does, big oil wants and would be able to kill it. But with the POTUS commenting “Elon is a genius, we have to protect geniuses”, the conspiracy just doesn’t hold up.
For shorts it’s not even a prisoners dilemma anymore. It’s more like “I don’t need to out run the lion, I only need to out run you” situation.
They seem to be having fun, let’s leave them be.
I think I finally found an easy way to convey to people as to why Tesla is a success and the other EVs are not. I talked to a ICE lover guy today when he asked me if I was worried about Tesla competition. Has been saying that nonsense for years.
I said think of it like baking a cake. There are several key ingredients needed. And if you skimp on one key ingredient, the whole thing is ultimately a flop. Other car companies have been missing at least one or more key ingredients with every competitor vehicle. Whether they are missing a great charging network, looks, performance, autopilot, etc. They need ALL of them to make it a real success to at least maybe come close to meeting Tesla.
I think he finally got it because he realizes that the upcoming competition will still be missing one of the key “ingredients”.
I said think of it like baking a cake. There are several key ingredients needed. And if you skimp on one key ingredient, the whole thing is ultimately a flop. Other car companies have been missing at least one or more key ingredients with every competitor vehicle. Whether they are missing a great charging network, looks, performance, autopilot, etc. They need ALL of them to make it a real success to at least maybe come close to meeting Tesla.
I think he finally got it because he realizes that the upcoming competition will still be missing one of the key “ingredients”.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Predicting the Cybertruck sales rate precisely is easy:
Essentially unlimited. Tesla will sell them as fast as they can make them for years to come at any conceivable ramp rate. Unless it can't get a 5-star safety rating (which is a distinct possibility) or they need to raise the announced pricing (or there are other "catches"), people will be falling all over themselves to get this thing.
I will concede, it won't sell all that well in Europe. But the other markets dwarf Europe for truck sales anyway.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
The indications last year were that FSD HW upgrades would be December (I think the statement was "fourth quarter" but I have no citation). And yet, here we are most of the way through January and there seem to be no meaningful number of upgrades. And, at the same time, persistent rumors about an early start for Model Y sales.
The battery constraints were, I thought, a good argument against Model Y before the official time frame and the apparent lack of assembly completion end of last year, but I have to wonder.
The way I see it is that either:
1. they are scaling the Model Y production earlier than expected and this is consuming the output once intended for upgrades, or
2. production hasn't meet targets. This can happen with poor yields and, while unlikely given the technology they chose to use, can't be ruled out
Am I missing a third option? Because as unlikely as #1 seems to me, it still seems much more probable than #2.
ZachF
Active Member
Maybe the "MAGA" crowd is finally realizing that capitalizing on what we do well (Building electric cars) is the true way to bring back the American Automotive industry?
Krugerrand
Meow
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Not only has Munro been silly wrong on points in interviews (discussed before in this forum), I've noticed Musk taking a "honey is better than vinegar" approach on twitter.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
sounds like you should be shorting them?
(definitely not advice)
@StealthP3D sorry, I forgot to put emoji in there. It was supposed to be a joke. Forgive me
Last edited:
ZachF
Active Member
I think because Toyota and Tesla is still not in the same segment. Upon cost parity, though...
And judging from my experience, Toyota buyers are risk averse. As long as their cars still last, not a care in the world....
ZachF
Active Member
People like to be right.
Perhaps what we are finally witnessing is the preference cascade on EVs, Tesla, climate change, Musk, TSLAQ being losers etc.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
My newb opinion would be either 2, or 3, depending on how well you think the ER ramp will be comparative to after ER. Minimal difference in ramp, 3, large difference, 2.
Just my newb opinion.
larmor
Active Member
They were planning on building 100 starships, using the same material that they are planning for the cyber truck as well. Combined with getting called out for testing the starship when the crew dragon program needed to get off the ground by NASA. So presumably there will be a US-based factory that’s going to put out starships and given the material is the same the cyber truck.
Mod: politics deleted. --ggr.
Mod: politics deleted. --ggr.
Last edited by a moderator:
ZachF
Active Member
It's almost like the stuff we have been called crazy for saying would happen for years is now happening...
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I have a relative at GM and he insisted that in five years none of their vehicles would have steering wheels. Personally, I think he was tweaking me because of my Tesla, but he was rather adamant about it. So maybe its possible that some people at GM actually think they will do this?
I still think Cruise is taking GM for a ride, they are on the investment gravy train.
Its funny how they mention Honda (and GM, as if GM hadn't bought them). I don't recall the details right now, but a lot of Cruise's money from investors was riding on milestones being reached -- and that hasn't been happening. You have to be careful when reading about Cruise and its ties with industry and the amounts of money to differentiate that which Cruise has been paid and that which is pending on them actually having something.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Oh my dear God expect all red tapes melting away in red States!
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
