Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustMe]

Holy delivery surge Batman! This is my final international deliveries update for Q4 2019.
This data is taken from the fine work of Franco Mossotto and friends Franco Mossotto on Twitter

The international deliveries were smooth sailing all quarter long. Four more ships are in F. Mossotto's google docs
spreadsheet and are expected for Q1. Vehicle loading days = how much total time each ship was loaded with cars.
I've seen estimates for #cars loaded per day range from 1000 - 1500. For comparison we have total VL days of:
Q2: 24.5, Q3: 30.2, Q4: 45 vehicle loading days. Note that these are only ships going to Europe, China, Japan and Korea.
There have been ships going to New Zealand and Australia that are not on the google docs spreadsheet.
So - taken at face value Tesla may have shipped about 15,000 - 22,000 more cars to EU and Asia in Q4 than Q3.
IF this is true, this would suggest 97 + (15 or 22) = 112,000 - 119,000 deliveries for Q4.

Troy Teslike has been putting out his own estimates of Tesla's shipments each Q.
For Q3, he estimated 55k US + Canada and 46K ROW = 101k. He overestimated by 4k.

Something that puzzles me is that Troy only expects 13k cars shipped to China + other APAC in Q4. But Tesla sent 8 ships to Asia this Q, with vehicle loading days totaling 26.6. So this seems to be grossly underestimated. Taking the lower estimate of 1000 cars/day he may be underestimating Asia deliveries by at least 13000 cars. If we add that to his estimate we get 119,000 deliveries.

Another way of looking at this is his current and final delivery estimate for Q4 is 60,700 US+Canada + 45,300 ROW = 106,000
IF this is true, then Tesla will also deliver 5k more cars in Q4 to the US+Canada, adding 5k more to the 15 - 22k international delivery bump: 117,000 - 124,000 deliveries in Q4?!

Does this pass the smell test? Wow, I have a real hard time believing the top end estimate of 124k, because that would imply a production rate of 10,000 per week and I don't think anyone believes Tesla has reached that in US alone. There's also the complication of not knowing the difference in "vehicles in transit" there will end up being between Q3 and Q4. But I will say this -> it looks like Tesla will easily surpass 360,000 deliveries for 2019 and on that basis there seems to be no reason to rush GF3 shipments this month to make up a shortfall in full year delivery guidance. Good times

 

[Thekiwi]

Found it. Q2 transcript. Was wrong about the greatly exceed.

“And then in terms of deliveries, we expect deliveries to be between 360,000 and 400,000. We expect production to be slightly higher number than that and demand to be slightly higher numbers than that.”

You might be remembering the attempted quick fix to explain the 500,000 in 2019 tweet, which eventually led to SEC & Musk team reclassifying parts of the previous SEC settlement (an attempt to say production might be as high as 500k, but deliveries only 400k, therefore not contradicting guidance).

 

[Thekiwi]

Holy delivery surge Batman! This is my final international deliveries update for Q4 2019.
This data is taken from the fine work of Franco Mossotto and friends Franco Mossotto on Twitter

The international deliveries were smooth sailing all quarter long. Four more ships are in F. Mossotto's google docs
spreadsheet and are expected for Q1. Vehicle loading days = how much total time each ship was loaded with cars.
I've seen estimates for #cars loaded per day range from 1000 - 1500. For comparison we have total VL days of:
Q2: 24.5, Q3: 30.2, Q4: 45 vehicle loading days. Note that these are only ships going to Europe, China, Japan and Korea.
There have been ships going to New Zealand and Australia that are not on the google docs spreadsheet.
So - taken at face value Tesla may have shipped about 15,000 - 22,000 more cars to EU and Asia in Q4 than Q3.
IF this is true, this would suggest 97 + (15 or 22) = 112,000 - 119,000 deliveries for Q4.

Troy Teslike has been putting out his own estimates of Tesla's shipments each Q.
For Q3, he estimated 55k US + Canada and 46K ROW = 101k. He overestimated by 4k.

Something that puzzles me is that Troy only expects 13k cars shipped to China + other APAC in Q4. But Tesla sent 8 ships to Asia this Q, with vehicle loading days totaling 26.6. So this seems to be grossly underestimated. Taking the lower estimate of 1000 cars/day he may be underestimating Asia deliveries by at least 13000 cars. If we add that to his estimate we get 119,000 deliveries.

Another way of looking at this is his current and final delivery estimate for Q4 is 60,700 US+Canada + 45,300 ROW = 106,000
IF this is true, then Tesla will also deliver 5k more cars in Q4 to the US+Canada, adding 5k more to the 15 - 22k international delivery bump: 117,000 - 124,000 deliveries in Q4?!

Does this pass the smell test? Wow, I have a real hard time believing the top end estimate of 124k, because that would imply a production rate of 10,000 per week and I don't think anyone believes Tesla has reached that in US alone. There's also the complication of not knowing the difference in "vehicles in transit" there will end up being between Q3 and Q4. But I will say this -> it looks like Tesla will easily surpass 360,000 deliveries for 2019 and on that basis there seems to be no reason to rush GF3 shipments this month to make up a shortfall in full year delivery guidance. Good times

View attachment 487170

Any idea how S&X deliveries to Europe estimates are calculated, given they go by container ship? (As far as I’m aware). Do Vehicle loading day averages use previous total Europe delivery estimate figures (which include S&X deliveries), or do they only use estimated model 3 deliveries?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I guess it's funny that Porsche is pretending that the EPA rating for gas mileage and EV range has not been lower than the European one since literally forever.

 

[JustMe]

Any idea how S&X deliveries to Europe estimates are calculated, given they go by container ship? (As far as I’m aware). Do Vehicle loading day averages use previous total Europe delivery estimate figures (which include S&X deliveries), or do they only use estimated model 3 deliveries?

The vehicle loading day numbers are taken from the google docs spreadsheet and those ships include some but not all S+X deliveries as I understand it. There are differing opinions on cars loaded per day and I’m not sure where the spread comes from.

 

[wipster]

This implies that only the EPA does the testing. My understanding has always been that the vehicle manufacturer does the testing and submits the numbers to the EPA. The EPA may audit the numbers, but they don't do the initial testing. Porsche must have already known that the numbers would not be the best.
EDIT: Oops, I responded to the wrong one, but the idea is still there.

Actually it was meant to imply that the testing occurred around 4:20 somewhere in Colorado or California...

 

[ZsoZso]

Not wanting to turn this into the taycan’t thread, but thought it worth pointing that even the $35.4k basic model 3 SR has better range:

View attachment 487148

Hmmm, so I can buy 4 Tesla Model 3 SR cars for the price of 1 Porsche Taycan,
each of them has a range of 220miles, so that's a total range of 880 miles instead of 201.

Tempting, but the Taycan can make fake engine noises, so it still wins
Tesla can only make fart noises

 

[mongo]

The vehicle loading day numbers are taken from the google docs spreadsheet and those ships include some but not all S+X deliveries as I understand it. There are differing opinions on cars loaded per day and I’m not sure where the spread comes from.

Knock down S/X that go to Tilburg ship out in containers via Houston. Tracking your Tesla from the factory to the UK

 

[SarahsDad]

Jim Cramer states he’s now a self proclaimed Tesla Zealot on tonight’s CNBC Mad Money episode

 

[Stretch2727]

So Porsche is trying to convince people that the EPA testing does not reflect reality. Maybe its my age, but you'd have no argument from me there -- but it would go in the opposite direction. Few people ever got the sticker mileage and, at least in my neck of the woods, its a running joke.

So either I'm completely out of touch, or Porsche is desperately (but likely uselessly) trying to pull a wizard of Oz routine.

So I have had 5 electric cars. Focus Electric, MB B-class, eGolf and 2 model 3's.

The B-class had far more range than the 84 miles it was rated by the EPA. With the others I could only exceed the rated range on ideal days in ideal conditions. i,e. 45-50 mph, 60-70 degrees F. The real world B-class minimum was 84 miles in the worst conditions (<32 F) and much better in other conditions.

With the B-class in cold the first few miles were sometimes close to 1000 Wh per mile for the first few miles but then it would settle into something more reasonable. If the EPA test cycle has a short mileage cold test loop this could explain the 84 miles rated range, as the cars real world range was much better than this. (not an expert in the EPA test cycle..)

My point is this is a test cycle depending on how the cars software manages the battery thermal management and other consumption you could end up with a low rated range but more range in real life depending on how you drive.

Anyway, Porsche should know the EPA test cycle well and should not have not been surprised by the 201mile range. People will look at the range on the sticker to compare. I don't think they can advertise anything but this.

 

[Words of HABIT]

CTV News | News Video - Top National News Headlines - News Videos
"December 10th, 2019 will be remembered as the day the electric aviation age started."
Times are a'changing.

 

[Remus]

Taycan is a Model S competitor not a Model 3 competitor. Model S is not meaningfully impacting the financials because it is not selling 25k plus units per quarter

That Taycan is objectively inferior and has already racked up 10k sales in Europe plus 20k pre-orders/reservations of 2500 Euros a pop should alert people that the auto market is not a rational place.

Audi etron is objectively a worse value than Taycan and yet it still sells well in Europe. Brands matter, interiors matter, distribution and service networks matter, and marketing matters.

ID.3 is coming next summer and ID.4 will come shortly thereafter not years later.

Best car doesn't necessarily win.

I think you missed the big picture.

This clearly shows Tesla wins on efficiency, which would have a huge impact on lower priced market segments that are much much bigger.

Toyota and Honda slaughtered the big three fifty years ago not by brand or interior. They sell better cars.

It just takes some time.

 

[sundaymorning]

Jim Cramer states he’s now a self proclaimed Tesla Zealot on tonight’s CNBC Mad Money episode

We may make fun of Cramer, but these are the things investors should look for as a signal that a stock is about to turn for the better. One by one the most ardent short, bear, non believer becomes a “fanboy”. I would not be surprise if CNBC starts to change their tune by end of next year when both M3 & MY crushes competitors. There just isn’t anything on Wall Street with as much growth potential as Tesla right now.

 

[mtndrew1]

So I have had 5 electric cars. Focus Electric, MB B-class, eGolf and 2 model 3's.

The B-class had far more range than the 84 miles it was rated by the EPA. With the others I could only exceed the rated range on ideal days in ideal conditions. i,e. 45-50 mph, 60-70 degrees F. The real world B-class minimum was 84 miles in the worst conditions (<32 F) and much better in other conditions.

With the B-class in cold the first few miles were sometimes close to 1000 Wh per mile for the first few miles but then it would settle into something more reasonable. If the EPA test cycle has a short mileage cold test loop this could explain the 84 miles rated range, as the cars real world range was much better than this. (not an expert in the EPA test cycle..)

My point is this is a test cycle depending on how the cars software manages the battery thermal management and other consumption you could end up with a low rated range but more range in real life depending on how you drive.

Anyway, Porsche should know the EPA test cycle well and should not have not been surprised by the 201mile range. People will look at the range on the sticker to compare. I don't think they can advertise anything but this.

The B-Class had an artificially locked battery capacity that could be “overcharged” if you paid $400 for the button from the factory, but all of them had a larger battery than advertised.

Might explain some of the excess range you experienced.

 

[adiggs]

Holy delivery surge Batman! ...

So you're at 83,112? That's pretty big

 

[Words of HABIT]

Final vehicle to roll off the assembly line at the GM plant in Oshawa, next week
GM's Oshawa Plant (just East of Toronto) will role out its last car on December 19th, 2019. 300 workers will remain for manufacturing parts for discontinued cars, down from current 2,600 workers. This plant employed >10,000 workers just a few years ago. GM received $2,600,000,000 (that is $2.6 Billion if you have trouble counting the zeros) from Ontario taxpayers a few years ago with expectation that GM would keep up it's employee count. GM, we want our money back.
Times are a'changing.

 

[ZachF]

That Taycan range is going to look extra silly when the Plaid Model S comes out and it doesn't even have half the range of the Tesla.

 

[Stretch2727]

The B-Class had an artificially locked battery capacity that could be “overcharged” if you paid $400 for the button from the factory, but all of them had a larger battery than advertised.

Might explain some of the excess range you experienced.

It was a range extender button to allow 10% more capacity. My car had it. The battery usable would go from 28.5KwH to 31KwH.

Still experienced more than 84 miles real world range without the range extender on.

Again, the point is this is a specific test loop. If they don't optimize the software for the test loop they could end up with EPA < real world.

 

[dc_h]

T

EU get ready for BIG DONG
View attachment 487046

The 8th ship to Europe is RCC Europe and going to Amsterdam. Is this a signal that 420 is back on?

 

[Freder Reeve]

Jim Cramer states he’s now a self proclaimed Tesla Zealot on tonight’s CNBC Mad Money episode

welp, time for a new avatar. ce la vie