Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

I'm sure with time we will find some disadvantages of stainless steel - such as lower scratch resistance unless made really hard with chromium - but those are solvable IMHO and all the advantages are stacked up a mile high already...

Thanks for the great write-up.

I have a "little" experience with SS from it's use in medical applications. From a service standpoint, it is a fastener issue. To avoid dissimilar metals issues, the fastening system needs to be carefully planned.

SS screws and bolts don't tolerate sloppy procedures like steel will. SS breaks and/or can bind up through galling when fastening is required. Anything that might require servicing or replacement must be planned out where fastening is concerned. Tesla has experience with dissimilar metals issues when working with Aluminum so this is familiar ground and it will be interesting to see what they work out.

SS will corrode but it takes a LOT salt exposure to do it.

It is going to be exciting to see how Tesla innovation moves this technology forward because it has so much potential.

 

[jerry33]

And how many are from 5 reservations from a single member of this board?

Mine went through the first time, as I imagine most did. Of course, the exceptions are the ones that posted about it.

 

[Unpilot]

So now that we had the chance to sleep

Ha ha....sleep...that's cute .......you said you sleep.

 

[VValleyEV]

there are innovative solutions to any problem

A stunt I could not resist a few years back. Friend parked his 5th wheel in my driveway for a visit, and moved his (big noisy diesel) truck out to the street, so I had to position my Prius in front to look like it was towing it. FYI what looks like a dent int the front hood is just a shadow.

 

[Creekstalker]

I was taught to count to 10 before reacting in a negative way to something, and I'm glad I did in this case. Elon gave us EXACTLY what he promised, after all.

I drive 80 miles a day for work (Toyota Corolla) and also have an old F-150 I use for hunting, canoeing, camping, hauling. The F-150 is on it's last legs.

Like many, I was initially horrified at the looks of the Cybertruck. But the price and the specs are everything I could possibly want. I could replace two vehicles with one. Suddenly the Cybertruck isn't quite as ugly.

I've gone from "This is an absolute disaster and nobody will buy this thing" to "I don't really like it, but I bet a lot of other people will".

Karen (I think) made a great observation about the Overton Window and how the freakish transforms into commonplace through a combination of providing utility and increasing familiarity.

As of this moment, I'd probably buy the Rivian truck (at least $20,000 more to get close to the mid-level Cybertruck's specs). The thing is though, I can't take delivery of either for at least 18 months or so.

I'm going to let the Overton Window work on me for a bit. I've already moved from "Hell No" to "Never Say Never" in a day. From a shareholder's perspective I've done the same. A lot will happen in the electric truck market between now and late 2021, but I suspect (and hope) that what changes is my aesthetic sensibility.

For now though, I'm convinced that there will be enough buyers to make the Cybertruck a net positive and we'll see how consumer tastes adapt between now and production in a couple years.

 

[kbM3]

I believe evidence is piling up that CYBRTK is going to be a runaway smash. My worry from quite a few comments, is that it will actually cannibalize SEXY, as unbelievable as that sounds. Why would a pickup cannibalize a sports sedan? It sounds absurd on the surface, but it seems to be occurring. I’ve always been a sports sedan or sports car fan, but there’s just something so compelling about CYBRTK. I believe part of it is literally the “having your cake and eating it too” aspect. I mean seriously, something with all the utility of a Pickup, faster than a 911 and more efficient than a Prius!

Are you kidding me?
5 close pals already bought this. Something is happening. : teslainvestorsclub

P.S. Re Cannibalization, It will expand the market far more than it will cannibalize,

 

[Unpilot]

Screw it, going to order one!

Anyone else going to do the same? If so, PM me and we can synch out order timing and see if there’s any correspondence in the RNs

My res number is in my sig...I ordered about 5pm eastern

 

[ZachF]

Perhaps black iron oxide like they do with guns? There's plenty of matte black stainless used in architecture and outside art. I believe it is more resistant to corrosion than plain stainless.

Cybertruck Glock edition?

 

[DFibRL8R]

SS will corrode but it takes a LOT salt exposure to do it.

I Keep picturing the rusted stainless steel grills I see at the beach (salt air) and wonder if that’s just an issue with a lower quality SS?

 

[ZachF]

I Keep picturing the rusted stainless steel grills I see at the beach (salt air) and wonder if that’s just an issue with a lower quality SS?

I used to work marine construction (freshwater lake, not salt water though), and SS would rust if it was low quality.

The rusting part would look like a tooth cavity, like the metals that didn't mix all of the way rusted and nothing else.

I suspect Cybertruck will be sourcing metal from the supplier that SpaceX is, if anything for advertisint purposes, so this shouldn't be a problem.

 

[jerry33]

View attachment 480349


They couldn't resist pointing out a Tesla failure.

I know the theory of all publicity is good publicity but.....

A knee-jerk reaction is a knee-jerk reaction. Not only does it not mean anything, the presentation would not nearly so talked about if it wasn't for the unintentional glitch. Once a person thinks about what would happen to a normal window will realize that not penetrating is better even with the cracks. Having had this happen to me (not with a steel ball, thankfully) it's really a positive.

 

[jerry33]

It's not a mistake it's Magick.

They knew what they were doing dropping the reservation fee that low. People who told all their friends they pre-ordered one now have to follow through.

Maybe 1/3 will refund. Maybe even half. There are plenty of other people who will take their place. It's 100 bucks BECAUSE everyone can afford that. It's a psychological game.

And it locks in the FSD price, which might go up by several thousand by the time the truck is released.

 

[Rashomon]

Without knowing the whole feature set, it's hard to pull costs out, but it's interesting there's only $20k difference between the dual-motor 300-mile EPA range truck, and the three-motor 500-mile range truck. There may be an 80kWh difference in the pack size. Slightly educated guesses for the pack sizes are 90kWh, 120kWh, and 200kWh (Take with large grain of salt). None of this pricing makes any sense unless Tesla thinks their battery cost at the pack level starts approaching $100/kWh by the time the 3-motor truck is released. This is very much ahead of any battery cost reduction projections from Bloomberg, MIT, or the US DOE.
It's also wildly different from what you can buy cells and packs if you're buying mere millions of cells a year (I'm living this). Cell cost if you're only buying a few million cells a year is 50 percent or more above Tesla's current cost as discussed in conference calls, etc. I suspect automakers who are trying to do a small percentage of their fleet as compliance vehicles will never catch up with Tesla's (or VW's for that matter) battery cost. They will likely have to sell their EVs for a loss just for the CO2 credits on their fleet averages, and won't be in a position to challenge Tesla on pricing. The game over the next several years is going to be who can scale their battery sourcing and ride the cost curve down the quickest. As I've said before, not everyone is going to survive this transition.

 

[jerry33]

Perhaps black iron oxide like they do with guns? There's plenty of matte black stainless used in architecture and outside art. I believe it is more resistant to corrosion than plain stainless.

At least in kitchen appliances, the black tends to scratch so the scratches stand out.

 

[JusRelax]

And the vast majority still won't be buying $40k plus pickups.

They don't need $40k now, they need it at the end of 2021, which also changes the number who can afford it when considering 20-yr olds vs 22-yr olds.

 

[JusRelax]

Incidentally, my instagram profile views are up by an order of magnitude today after all my raving about the cybertruck yesterday

We have a true cultural phenomenon on our hands. SP will double the current ATH some time in the next few months not advice

I hope you're right -- bought a $670 Jan 2021 call yesterday on the dip.

 

[jerry33]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, it's been hard to keep up with this thread recently. Some people are raising concerns about the safety aspects of the Cybertruck and how economical any repairs would be. With the panels being very costly and difficult to replace (insurance cost concerns) and a lack of crumple zones. The vehicle perhaps being too damaging to others in a crash? Any thoughts on this?

Run any pickup into a car and it could be classified as too damaging to others, or any Semi.
Just needs special techniques to repair (No , I don't know what they are, not my area of expertise). Aluminum was though to be too expensive to repair as well, until it wasn't.

 

[SpaceCash]

I hope you're right -- bought a $670 Jan 2021 call yesterday on the dip.

Bro me too I want the SP to hit ~680 so I can have the truck for free tbh

 

[anthonyj]

My RN for reference. Ordered within one minute of launch

 

[Chickenlittle]

There will be no "cOnVeNtIoNaL rElEaSe"

Conventional trucks look like unadulterated garbage now. This is your new truck. Get with the times.

A small 10% share as a starting point of a 1.5 million market is huge and will grow