Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Let us know how that goes.
In my opinion, there's a very good chance TSLA will be well over $352 by then.

I agree with StealthP3D. There is only one thing worse than losing share value on your TSLA investment, and that is watching TSLA climb without you. In the last three months we have gone from extreme fear with a ridiculous $176USD price (August 2013 levels where Tesla was delivering only one model (MS) @ 1,300/month, no GF2, no GF3, no MX, no M3, no Semi, No Roadster 2, no MY, no Cybrtrk, no GF4). Wake up people, we are in 2019 and Tesla is delivering 21,775 /month (M3, MS, MX combined) with enough products in the pipeline to last the next 20 years. The flip side of extreme fear is extreme greed. I see the Cybrtrk reveal as the catalyst for the next step up of TSLA and it would not surprise me for ATH or the illusive $420/share by end of December 2019 before seeing a meaningful pullback, however if F'19 Q4 is also a surprise on the upside, even these estimates will seem low.

The recent 50% drop and 100% recovery for TSLA reminds me of the 2008 housing meltdown in the US. What happened is many were forced out at the bottom and those savy or simply lucky enough to have bought at the bottom reaped the rewards. Real estate was consolidated into a more finite number of owners (due to many Owners forced out of the market became life long Renters having lost their housing equity). I believe this consolidation of holders also happened with TSLA which will make future significant drops of 50% less likely.

Disclaimer. Not an advice.

 

[ReflexFunds]

He does:

"I'm told the current goal at GF1 is 10k batteries/week by the end of the year."​

If we assume that GF1 made 80k+7k packs in Q3 and ramps up to 10k/week in Q4, then the math goes like this, assuming 13 weeks per quarter, and a linear ramp-up both in Q3 and Q4:

• Q4 entry rate: 6.15k+0.54k×2 = 7.2k/week
• Q4 exit rate: 10k/week
• Q4 average: 8.6k/week
• Q4 M3 production: 8.6×13 = 112k

With 20k S+X that's 132k, or 386k for 2019, minus any inventory buildup. Plus the 7k China packs from Q3 - so 393k max.

But I'd agree that 10k/week at Fremont is quite likely optimistic, so the push-back is justified.

Yet the outgoing Model 3 ship capacity appears to be ~60% higher than in Q3, which would map to a Q4 Model 3 production rate of 6.15×1.6 = 9.8k/week.

Intriguing coincidence of numbers.

Carsonight has actually stated that Tesla has a private aspirational goal (read impossible) of 15k packs per week at GF1 before expansion. I can't see this being possible this year though and there is no way Fremont could currently produce anywhere close to this many Model 3s per week. If the 15k pack per week target is true though, then this would seem a likely target for Fremont 3+Y production by sometime next year.
15k packs per week would require around 43GWh cells just for SR+ packs or 53GWh for 50:50 SR+/LR. Perhaps Tesla could get GF1 cell production above 35GWh with an upgrade to cell chemistry, but I can't see how 53GWh is possible in the current footprint. However it is possible that GF1 pack production uses cells from another location or CATL. Of course they also need cells for Tesla Energy.

November 9th:
Carsonight: "I met a group of Tesla employees recently. They told me that Tesla has a private aspirational goal of 15k packs/week, but the employee's general consensus on that one was "uh huh, riiight". They think 10k/week is doable, though."
Me: "Did they have any comment on when Tesla was aspiring for this 15k? Is it a goal for current equipment or only after expansion of GF1?"
Carsonight: "Their goals are before expansion of GF1. I'm told Panasonic came up with a way to increase production from 300k cells/line/day to 400k cells/line/per day, and there are 13 lines. Three lines could do that rate last year, and the rest can be upgraded. I am also told that Tesla's Grohmann lines can produce a battery every 45 seconds, that it's now a question of being able to make all the necessary parts at that rate, everything from cooling tubes to battery pans to the "brains" of the battery. How possible by year's end I have no idea, but will happen eventually."

Carsonight: "The Tesla employees I spoke to tend to agree that 15k/week by year's end is impossible. It's an aspirational goal. If you go back in my posts you will see their skepticism mentioned. I have nothing to "gain". It's just conversation."

 

[Boomer19]

After all of the discussions around how option expiration and max pain is affecting the stock price, I've begun making some tools to visualize how the option market moves, but I'm struggling getting historical option data. Can anyone here hook me up?

that’s going to be tough to get for free.
not sure how much cboe charges
Historical Options Data
but may not be cheap. your broker may be another spot if you’re already paying.

if you have api to your broker you may be able to pull historical data..may be the best bet, economically, to backtest your models

 

[Words of HABIT]

You might very well turn out to be right - the good news is that in a few hours it will probably be over one way or another.

Watch The Ford Mustang Mach-E Livestream Here
See the full reveal live here starting at 8:50 PM EST (5:50 PM PST) on November 17.
I'll make a gentlemen's bet that there will be no collaboration between Ford and Tesla. I do wish Ford all the best in their EV launch, every EV regardless of manufacturer, is one less ICE on the road, and that is a good thing.

 

[SpaceCash]

For the record, I don't actually think F is partnering with TSLA. (VW maybe).

I expect the truck to have airless tires or else Elon is lion about the truck being bulletproof.

I expect the truck to thrill hipsters around the world who won't be able to afford it, and to earn huge market share among people who actually do work (in the scientific, physics sense).

I expect a new trading range to be grasped for on Monday, Wednesday at the latest, and I expect to observe at a markedly different mystique and probably significantly different SP about the TSLA animal 2 weeks from now.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Anyway, seems like 100% of TMC will now be watching F reveal to see if any partnership rumors leak

Sorry about that. I didn't mean to start such a fruitful rumor.

EDIT: ....prediction that is.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla wants the Model E trademark, though Ford will spitefully make sure they don't get it.

Haha! I forgot about that! But I would put that in the past-tense. Now we have the Model 3 and Tesla is not going back to the Model E. They certainly aren't going to trade something of considerable value for the rights to "Model E" or they already would have done it when Ford objected.

 

[M3Rider]

Sorry about that. I didn't mean to start such a fruitful rumor.

EDIT: ....prediction that is.

Is this you?
Alter Viggo on Twitter

Oh, btw this thread says F signed up to VW's MEB EV platform:
Ford and Volkswagen team up on EVs, with Ford the first outside automaker to use VW’s MEB platform – TechCrunch

So, seems like this would put an end to F/Tesla partnership speculations.

 

[PeterJA]

Ok. It's not like Elon has warned us multiple times in interviews and calls that the truck may be so "out there" that he is not sure the masses will love it as much as he does in which case they'll probably make a more conventional truck as well.

Preemptive crippling of the FUD narrative. I think Elon knows that enough people will love Cybertruck to keep Tesla busy for years.

 

[Singuy]

Nope. I'm not going to waste my time.

To be truthful, I'm just sitting here stunned this morning. I feel like I have entered an alternate reality where reality doesn't really matter.

1) Tesla partnering with Ford? Why? This is ridiculousness.
2) If Tesla and Ford partner, TSLA shares shoot to the moon? Why? They might go down with that kind of bearish news.

Both of these ridiculous notions are rooted in the same fallacy, namely, that Ford has something that Tesla wants! Let me make something clear right now:

Ford has absolutely NOTHING that Tesla wants!

This is not going to happen. The specs and timelines Ford has released for their entry into mass-market EV's is a wish list, pure fantasy. I'm shocked people are still getting fooled by these desperate statements.

Ford has $$$ that Tesla wants but more importantly, every drive train Tesla make sold to Ford is one less ICE car shipped out of Ford. Tesla is the only company not dragging their feet. They will put that $$ to more super chargers and more gigafactores. We don't know what Maxwell tech is capable of but if Tesla can scale up cell production by 10x vs today then they absolutely want to start selling power trains vs having all these other companies waiting for LG to give them enough to build compliance cars.

I can't believe you are starting to think Tesla is only a car company. I am rooting for power train partnership with anybody and everybody.

 

[SpaceCash]

That new eMustang IS ugly tho.
If you disagree that's not a differing opinion, you're actually WRONG.

the inny/outty nose cone is godawful

 

[Singuy]

That new eMustang IS ugly tho.
If you disagree that's not a differing opinion, you're actually WRONG.

the inny/outty nose cone is godawful

Model S and the original ModelX prototype looked similar and I argue is even more awful.

 

[EVMeister]

That new eMustang IS ugly tho.

the inny/outty nose cone is godawful

I'm not just saying this as a Tesla fanboy. I mean, I like the styling of various other vehicles as well. But I agree with you on this one.

 

[Intl Professor]

I spent a couple of hours today trying to catch up with TMC which was possible only by skipping two pages at a time. After a long life thinking, teaching, and acting in politics I think I'm pretty good assessing a public mood, though my paranoid bias seems to be dulled by the actual facts emerging during Watergate and now at the national level in the US. Right or wrong, like it or not, here is my assessment of the main thread TMC mood today.

It is somewhere between these two boundary conditions.

1) A runner's high which I experienced once after a three mile jog with my buddy (never repeated since I am by nature a couch potato). In a solo cool down afterward, the campus was never prettier, the foliage greener than that of the greenest jungle, so cool and so relaxing, like today's anticipation of Q4, and the cleverness or the suspected acronyms,.... With all deserved praise to Karen and FC and others too. A nice, clean, organic dopamine high.

Or,

2) Thank God I was never offered nor would I imbibe in lysergic acid, because I'm already flaky about reality. (Too much politics!) Two fraternity brothers at MIT were part of Leary's original Harvard test when we were at MIT. One had no behavioral reaction to the drug because his baseline behavior was already beyond bizarre. (Quadruple B in psychobabble.) The literature foretells more than dopamine effects or vastly unpleasant ones. Like whatever acid the shorts spew.

Not an advice, just a reminder about temperance and moderation.

 

[Fact Checking]

Oh, btw this thread says F signed up to VW's MEB EV platform:
Ford and Volkswagen team up on EVs, with Ford the first outside automaker to use VW’s MEB platform – TechCrunch

So, seems like this would put an end to F/Tesla partnership speculations.

That article says nothing about an exclusive partnership between Ford and VW though, and Ford indeed partnered with Rivian as well.

VW's MEB platform will arrive in the US in 2021 at the earliest - while the Mustang Mach E was announced with end of 2020 availability - so the timing doesn't match. Nor can VW's MEB platform produce the specs Ford announced.

Ford might consider VW the more dangerous partner: VW isn't doing this out of the goodness of their hearts. Ford might want to partner with a company they believe will be less dangerous to them in the future.

So why would it not be possible for Ford to partner with EV market leader Tesla as well, for premium products, if they can come to a mutually beneficial relationship?

I'm not saying it's going to happen, or that the probability is super high - but it's certainly a possibility.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Is this you?
Alter Viggo on Twitter

Oh, btw this thread says F signed up to VW's MEB EV platform:
Ford and Volkswagen team up on EVs, with Ford the first outside automaker to use VW’s MEB platform – TechCrunch

So, seems like this would put an end to F/Tesla partnership speculations.

No, but I wish I had that much hair!!

But that dude was 2 days ahead of even my genius - which isn't saying a whole lot. But hats off to him if it turns out to be true.

 

[Off Shore]

In re: fugly Ford, cada loco con su tema.

 

[jerry33]

I expect the truck to have airless tires or else Elon is lion about the truck being bulletproof.

Bulletproof when referring to vehicles typically does not include the tires. I can't see Elon (or anyone else) giving up that much range.

 

[jerry33]

Ford has $$$ that Tesla wants but more importantly, every drive train Tesla make sold to Ford is one less ICE car shipped out of Ford. Tesla is the only company not dragging their feet. They will put that $$ to more super chargers and more gigafactores. We don't know what Maxwell tech is capable of but if Tesla can scale up cell production by 10x vs today then they absolutely want to start selling power trains vs having all these other companies waiting for LG to give them enough to build compliance cars.

I can't believe you are starting to think Tesla is only a car company. I am rooting for power train partnership with anybody and everybody.

So far Tesla's shipping powertrains to others hasn't worked out that well. Two strikes out of two doesn't bode well for a third.

 

[SpaceCash]

In re: fugly Ford, cada loco con su tema.

I mean you can say that about anything (fat chicks, budweiser, internal combustion engines), fact remains that most discerning people can consistently tell you that certain things are inferior to other things