I took a trip down memory lane for you all, and re-read Spiegel's late 2016 'presentation.' It's aged really well. Below, I've listed the predictions/comparisons that were to happen by now. I've left out any 'competition' he listed that wasn't due to be out by now.
-Pricing pressure on Tesla from competing EVs over the next few years (aka through about today) will be intense because those manufacturers can subsidize their EVs with profits from their ICE cars.
-The new Bolt compares to the size of the S but $30k cheaper than the cheapest Tesla and with more range.
-Audi Q6 coming 2018 with 300+ miles range.
-VW's new electric car will cost less than and go farther than the Model 3.
-Jaguar unveils all-electric i-Pace, targets Model X.
-Nissan confirms next Leaf will have 200+ miles of range.
-200-mile Hyundai Ioniq coming 2018.
-Honda will re-enter the electric race in 2017
-Mazda CEO says electric cars coming 2019
-Toyota may mass-produce long-range electric cars.
-New 2017 Renault Zoe with 41 kWh battery
-PSA promise 280-mi EV in 2019
-Lucid launches 300-mi EV
-2017 Karma Revero revealed
-Dyson EV looks more likely than ever
-Tesla is playing catch-up with BYD in nearly every category
Next, he lists a bunch of battery 'competition' after a bullet list of why Tesla's batteries are really Panasonic's, and they're not special, anyway. I won't detail these as there's no point. Battery supply and quality are reflected in the vehicles made by Tesla and others, so when battery advancements by others matter, we'll see it in vehicle sales.
Next, a bunch of press releases about how much battery storage competition is coming. Again, not gonna detail it other than to say that no competitor seems to have nuked Tesla's energy storage deployments.
Next, the bogeymen come for Autopilot:
-Audi to have first fully-autonomous car in 2017.
-GM/Lyft to make autonomous taxis available in early 2019.
Next, up come 120 kW Superchargers and their competition:
-Giant joint-venture 350 kW network coming in Europe.
-Electrify America network coming to the US.
(Both of these networks combined wound up paling in comparison to the Supercharger network, which itself improved drastically in these intervening 3 years both in availability and charge speed)
Next: But what about the $35k 3? Spiegel estimates that the base 3 will cost Tesla *at least* (his words) high $40,000s to make. (Note: nope!)
Then he rags on Tesla service delays. Congrats, Mark! Your random dart-throwing hit something of merit! Here's a cookie!
Finally, he goes on a tirade of headlines knocking Musk for being lame. Including Seeking Alpha articles by Montana Skeptic and Paulo Santos.
Meanwhile, a short summary from me of Tesla's accomplishments in the intervening 3 years:
-4461 Superchargers then to 14,400 now, more than tripling. Also increased power considerably.
-GAAP revenue 2.3B then to 6.3B now.
-25k deliveries then, 97k now.
-550M opex then, 930M now (< 2x, with 4x sales).
-Then: Tesla faced a very difficult bet-the-company ramp of the 3 and the tall task of integrating SolarCity. Now: the 3 basically took over the world. Tesla has a shiny new factory in China about to start production, greatly improving competitiveness in the world's largest car market. The Y is right around the corner. Solar Roof is finally here. Retrofit PV and Tesla Energy storage is finally ramping. The company is far more cost-efficient. And there are about $5.3B in the bank.
This presentation is fairly representative of the quality of analysis put forth by the TSLAQ crowd--hanging on the most charitable possible expectation of every EV-related development from anyone and everyone not named Tesla/Musk, while completely discounting everything Tesla/Musk say or do. This presentation long pre-dated the Twitter block list, but boy--looking at how absolutely terribly off the mark the entirety of Spiegel's presentation was, should we be surprised that the whole cabal resorted to sticking fingers in ears and hiding under the blanket?
It's somewhat remarkable that Spiegel and the rest of their crew refer to happy Tesla customers and investors as 'Teslemmings,' when the quality of analysis and social demeanor of the TSLAQ crew are objectively far closer to those of a lemming.
Keep these results in mind going forward. If we should be so lucky over the next three years as to have Tesla execute half as successfully while Spiegel's predictions are twice as accurate, we're in for a fun time.
Who's selling?
-Pricing pressure on Tesla from competing EVs over the next few years (aka through about today) will be intense because those manufacturers can subsidize their EVs with profits from their ICE cars.
-The new Bolt compares to the size of the S but $30k cheaper than the cheapest Tesla and with more range.
-Audi Q6 coming 2018 with 300+ miles range.
-VW's new electric car will cost less than and go farther than the Model 3.
-Jaguar unveils all-electric i-Pace, targets Model X.
-Nissan confirms next Leaf will have 200+ miles of range.
-200-mile Hyundai Ioniq coming 2018.
-Honda will re-enter the electric race in 2017
-Mazda CEO says electric cars coming 2019
-Toyota may mass-produce long-range electric cars.
-New 2017 Renault Zoe with 41 kWh battery
-PSA promise 280-mi EV in 2019
-Lucid launches 300-mi EV
-2017 Karma Revero revealed
-Dyson EV looks more likely than ever
-Tesla is playing catch-up with BYD in nearly every category
Next, he lists a bunch of battery 'competition' after a bullet list of why Tesla's batteries are really Panasonic's, and they're not special, anyway. I won't detail these as there's no point. Battery supply and quality are reflected in the vehicles made by Tesla and others, so when battery advancements by others matter, we'll see it in vehicle sales.
Next, a bunch of press releases about how much battery storage competition is coming. Again, not gonna detail it other than to say that no competitor seems to have nuked Tesla's energy storage deployments.
Next, the bogeymen come for Autopilot:
-Audi to have first fully-autonomous car in 2017.
-GM/Lyft to make autonomous taxis available in early 2019.
Next, up come 120 kW Superchargers and their competition:
-Giant joint-venture 350 kW network coming in Europe.
-Electrify America network coming to the US.
(Both of these networks combined wound up paling in comparison to the Supercharger network, which itself improved drastically in these intervening 3 years both in availability and charge speed)
Next: But what about the $35k 3? Spiegel estimates that the base 3 will cost Tesla *at least* (his words) high $40,000s to make. (Note: nope!)
Then he rags on Tesla service delays. Congrats, Mark! Your random dart-throwing hit something of merit! Here's a cookie!
Finally, he goes on a tirade of headlines knocking Musk for being lame. Including Seeking Alpha articles by Montana Skeptic and Paulo Santos.
Meanwhile, a short summary from me of Tesla's accomplishments in the intervening 3 years:
-4461 Superchargers then to 14,400 now, more than tripling. Also increased power considerably.
-GAAP revenue 2.3B then to 6.3B now.
-25k deliveries then, 97k now.
-550M opex then, 930M now (< 2x, with 4x sales).
-Then: Tesla faced a very difficult bet-the-company ramp of the 3 and the tall task of integrating SolarCity. Now: the 3 basically took over the world. Tesla has a shiny new factory in China about to start production, greatly improving competitiveness in the world's largest car market. The Y is right around the corner. Solar Roof is finally here. Retrofit PV and Tesla Energy storage is finally ramping. The company is far more cost-efficient. And there are about $5.3B in the bank.
This presentation is fairly representative of the quality of analysis put forth by the TSLAQ crowd--hanging on the most charitable possible expectation of every EV-related development from anyone and everyone not named Tesla/Musk, while completely discounting everything Tesla/Musk say or do. This presentation long pre-dated the Twitter block list, but boy--looking at how absolutely terribly off the mark the entirety of Spiegel's presentation was, should we be surprised that the whole cabal resorted to sticking fingers in ears and hiding under the blanket?
It's somewhat remarkable that Spiegel and the rest of their crew refer to happy Tesla customers and investors as 'Teslemmings,' when the quality of analysis and social demeanor of the TSLAQ crew are objectively far closer to those of a lemming.
Keep these results in mind going forward. If we should be so lucky over the next three years as to have Tesla execute half as successfully while Spiegel's predictions are twice as accurate, we're in for a fun time.
Who's selling?
