Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Always thought an excavator would be a good application for conversion to EV since they use a huge counterweight. Replace some of that with batteries and there would be no weight penalty.

Heavy machinery that doesn't move far is perfect for electric. Much more torque and you can have it solar charging for all down time(and perhaps operation time as well).

 

[EVNow]

Stock seems to be shrugging it off.

Considering the macros (Nasdaq down 0.2%) - TSLA is doing well at +0.1%.

 

[30seconds]

I heard that there are multiple crews, each with 2 people, going around performing the upgrades. Each person can do 2 stalls in a day, so usually they convert 4 stalls and then move on to the next Super Charger the next day. Hopefully this way they can upgrade a couple of stalls in each location before the Model 3 arrives.

I test drove the P3D today. At the Düsseldorf Service Center they had one Model 3 registered in Germany (Munich) and another one registered in Netherlands for test drives. Only a few more weeks to a month until first customer deliveries.

Well, what did you think about it?

 

[Krugerrand]

I like that I asked this literally the day before the biggest drop in multiple years and I got zero traction up or down. That's a lesson methinks that people need to be wary about relying on one forum. Shorts may end up being wrong in the long run but in my experience they have brought to the surface a large number of things that ended up right.

edit: btw I lost 800k$ the next day after that comment with zero responses.

What exactly do you want us to say about it? They discontinued that battery size (an event that’s happened before) and we’ll find out what they have planned in a little over 24 hours.

Must everything they do be a cause for panic? Or a cause to dissect to the molecular level, which actually DID happen? Rhetorical questions.

Sorry for your losses. You shouldn’t have sold or gambled on options - whichever caused the loss. I’ve seen my trading account go up and down so many times in the last 6 1/2 years, I’m quite sure when added all up I could have paid off several national debts around the world.

 

[Tslynk67]

Model 3 is already the largest of the "affordable" EVs by interior space. What EV would you choose instead? You mention the Model X. What other passenger EV is as large as a Model X in terms of interior space, or even close, at any price point?

And Tesla does have plans for an affordable, larger EV: its called the Model Y. You've probably heard of it It's their top priority new EV right now. Just about to be unveiled, with lots of money getting poured into tooling right after that.

Arguably eliminating the 75D versions contributes to this, and not just simply by improving Tesla's margins. Now they have the lines down at night. Which means at the very least that they could work on line modifications to help improve their efficiency, but even more interestingly, they could now try to merge the old (inefficient) S body line onto the X line. Which would free up the S line. Which could then potentially be retooled for the Y, if Tesla wants to have it at Fremont.

That's in no way saying that this "will" happen. But it is a possibility now that S/X production is reduced and there's some line downtime - a possibility which didn't previously exist.

(Other things that eliminating the 75Ds does: it also frees up more spare part capacity to improve service, and frees up more paint shop and stamping capacity for the Model 3. It also removes Tesla's shortest-range high-end vehicles, which has the effect of making all of the "competition"'s ranges look pathetic)

Exactly, there is no other EV suitable for larger families at the 75D price-point, so I really don't get why Telsa has dropped it.

 

[Matias]

Um, so Tesla's Autopilot page advertises the new chip. That seems pretty significant and could means it is shipping with new orders. Otherwise, why advertise?

Autopilot

I dont see any mention of the new chip, at least in the U.S. or Finland page. If you’re referring to “
Processing Power Increased 40x”
that refers to the AP2 and has been there since the AP2 introduction.

 

[ggr]

Traditionally white is predominantly the color of mourning in China.....

And it's black in the US and Europe... what is your point?

 

[KarenRei]

This could be a helpful technology for Tesla if it pans out.

Engineers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have now made a camera that closely copies the crustacean’s impressive visual system. The device, described last October in Optica, is a one-inch cube, and researchers say it could be made in bulk for $10 apiece. They believe it could ultimately be used to help cars detect hazards, to let military drones see camouflaged or shadowed targets, and to enable surgeons to perform more accurately.

Credit: Brown Bird Design; Source: “Bioinspired Polarization Imager with High Dynamic Range,” by Missael Garcia et al., in Optica, Vol. 5, No. 10; October 20, 2018

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/camera-mimics-mantis-shrimps-astounding-vision/

Not sure how car-specific that is, but HDR CCDs would be a pretty neat tech. Polarization seems to be a totally different issue, but hey, the more data the better. My dream for cameras and data formats would be that intensity and polarization are recorded in multispectral images (arbitrary of bands, no limits to wavelength), along with Z-buffer data if the hardware allows, and videos ditch the concept of frames for time-tagged updates for specific pixels, whose data is stored as splines rather than specific values - with the pixels indexed in absolute polar coordinates rather than relative rectilinear coordinates, with the camera's angle and position stored in the video file.

 

[FS_FRA]

And it's black in the US and Europe... what is your point?

As mentioned up-thread....forget about it

 

[KarenRei]

Crazy thought: an electric excavator could *regen* if the hydraulic pump is reversible (or there's a hydraulic generator included). You lift up some heavy object with the bucket, then set it back down.... and get 80% of the energy back. And even if you dump the bucket while it's elevated (and thus can't regen from the mass of what you lifted), you still regen the mass of the bucket and arm on the way back down.

 

[Matias]

Processing Power Increased 40x
To make sense of all of this data, a new onboard computer with over 40 times the computing power of the previous generation runs the new Tesla-developed neural net for vision, sonar and radar processing software. Together, this system provides a view of the world that a driver alone cannot access, seeing in every direction simultaneously, and on wavelengths that go far beyond the human senses.

That refers to AP1 vs AP2, has been there since the introduction of AP2.

 

[Krugerrand]

Full agree! 2 kids, no dogs, but many activities requiring space....

I for one have to say that the removal of the 75D has seriously kabboshed my plans for next company car. It fit perfectly in the sweet spot for lease provided by company and 50% reduced tax in Germany for me (which would put it lower than my current car)..... if there is no price reduction in future 100D / Standard Range, then im outta the Tesla market until another model comes along that fits my purpose / financials as the 75D.

That’s what happens when you sit and wait and wait and wait. Tesla moves like the wind. If something fits your criteria, you ought to buy it since waiting is likely to see it go bye-bye sooner rather than later. Don’t make me list all the versions and options that have gone by the way.

 

[Buckminster]

Well if they are producing 7 8 or 9 thousand a week and announce that at ER. What would that do to the stock ?

Confirmation of 6k sustained would be a good starting baseline. 7k is the target for Freemont M3s so we are not expecting higher - or did you mean including S/X?

Exactly, there is no other EV suitable for larger families at the 75D price-point, so I really don't get why Telsa has dropped it.

Are you not interested in Y at all or not interested yet, given that you won't be able to buy in Brussels for years?

 

[humbaba]

Not sure how car-specific that is, but HDR CCDs would be a pretty neat tech. Polarization seems to be a totally different issue, but hey, the more data the better. My dream for cameras and data formats would be that intensity and polarization are recorded in multispectral images (arbitrary of bands, no limits to wavelength), and videos ditch the concept of frames for time-tagged updates for specific pixels, whose data is stored as splines rather than specific values - with the pixels indexed in absolute polar coordinates rather than relative rectilinear coordinates, with the camera's angle and position stored in the video file.

My concern is that using an exponential response will prevent discrimination of close values. The article is brief and very short on details, but the one quote comparing the research camera to a conventional one only mentioned that it had better contrast range. In HDR the value range of the format is sufficient, but this is an issue with the signal from the sensor.

Put another way, if you can only discriminate eight values from the sensor but the output is linear for 0..7 you get less range but better discrimination within the range than if your range is 10^(0..7). Yeah, there's going to be quite a bit better than eight possible values, but current responses still produce banding. I'd expect even worse banding with this. An improvement in some applications, worse in others.

 

[Buckminster]

‘Metallic wood’ is as strong as titanium, but much lighter
The things Elon could do with this...

 

[ZeApelido]

Not sure how car-specific that is, but HDR CCDs would be a pretty neat tech. Polarization seems to be a totally different issue, but hey, the more data the better. My dream for cameras and data formats would be that intensity and polarization are recorded in multispectral images (arbitrary of bands, no limits to wavelength), along with Z-buffer data if the hardware allows, and videos ditch the concept of frames for time-tagged updates for specific pixels, whose data is stored as splines rather than specific values - with the pixels indexed in absolute polar coordinates rather than relative rectilinear coordinates, with the camera's angle and position stored in the video file.

Convolutional neural networks would hate you.

 

[EVNow]

So, a day before the ER - there is hardly any interest in the stock ? The stock is following Nasdaq, almost tick by tick, showing the bots have taken over.

BTW, apparently its not just the big boys who have bots. Even your low 100 stocks trader/programmer.

Algorithmic Trading

May be I'll start looking into this some day.

 

[Tslynk67]

Very cool: A Norwegian company worked together with Caterpillar to make the world's first large-scale electric excavator. 26 tonne, 300kWh:

SNIKTITT: Caterpillar 323F Z-line (zero emission) Verdens første av sitt slag - og den er bygget i Norge

In this case, a big heavy battery is an asset!

 

[adaptabl]

Well if they are producing 7 8 or 9 thousand a week and announce that at ER. What would that do to the stock ?

The issue would be who to sell them to. The only way to sustain that volume of production for any length of time is to have the 35K model (actually the $31,250K model to make up for the tax rebate reduction).

 

[Tslynk67]

You have trouble believing that UBS would do that? Really?

Stock seems to be shrugging it off.

Yep, following NASDAQ so far today, with the usual magnifier-effect. Waiting for tomorrow, basically.

Let's hope Apple ER isn't too bad and dumps macros - normally it's priced-in as they gave the profit warning a few weeks back.