Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Let us not get ahead of ourselves with talk off $400 SP. I want $300 first......then let's talk.

BIG congrats to all LONGS!

The SP will pass $400. The only grey area is the date. A switch has been flipped. Tesla are not going away. The only remaining path is mega success. (Because Musk doesn’t know stop).

 

[Pras]

I'm so sad... I'm in the process of moving my 401k into an IRA and the transfer didn't complete until today.. AFTER the market closed!

Of course, then again, considering I'm already pretty heavily invested in TSLA, I'm happy that it's majorly up as well.

My average is 290, so you are still in a better situation. Go for it.

 

[Navin]

Today Elon Musk called out wsj reporter Charley Grant for potential ties to Jim Chanos.

Everyone who tracks Tesla closely knows the history of Charley and his negative narrative on TSLA. What was interesting to see if there was some truth to being linked to Jim Chanos and serving as his mouthpiece to the financial community.

Let’s go down the rabbit hole....

——

Check out this article:
How Jim Chanos Uses Cynicism, Chutzpah — and a Secret Twitter Account — to Take on Markets (and Elon Musk)

Chanos can appear world-weary and somewhat guarded — but, as the saying goes, in every cynic beats the bleeding heart of an idealist. “There’s more than a little of the crusader in him,” says longtime friend Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. “He would like to clean up Wall Street. He would like to improve the quality of corporate reporting. He would like to rid Wall Street of the scoundrels and clean up corporate management.”

Charley’s Dad’s BFF - a little sloppy quote they probably regret

——
Jim Chanos has been short other very specific stocks:

—-
Caterpillar

Charley writes about it - helps out
Why Caterpillar Rolled Over

——

Valeant

No way - guess whose back caddying for Mr chanos on the back nine:
Valeant assets good, but debt burden an issue: Grant

——-
Jimbo shorts Mallinckrodt

Charley lends a hand
These Drug Companies Are Too Frail to Cure

——-

Jim calls out Uber
Legendary short vendor Jim Chanos: Uber and Lyft went public because they’d to, now not because they wished to – BrowseDesk

Charley calls out Uber and Jim responds via Twitter handle
Charley Grant on Twitter


Could go on and on...

Whoa. Thanks for all of the likes.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tea-leaf analysis, worth precisely what you pay for it:

It's quite a big deal for Tesla to report some record numbers this quarter. If they were significantly over that mark, they would have reported the numbers today in pre-market hours, the way they did in their good quarters (Q3 and Q4 2018).

The report being delayed* until after hours today or pre-market tomorrow makes me think that either a) they are really close to record numbers, and they want to confirm every delivery report from every branch, or b) they didn't get there, they know it will be spun negatively, and they're looking for a way to make the report sound positive. Releasing the report in the after hours today would indicate to me that they want to give investors time to get over the initial disappointment and see the bigger picture by next day.

*I know it's not "technically" delayed, but they already have a good idea of what the numbers are.

You can’t make this stuff up. Sometimes it’s a good idea to step away from the keyboard and just wait a minute.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Ok, I think the situation in Great Britain is pretty clear to everone now. Until Brexit ofcourse. So no more posts on that subject.

 

[Prunesquallor]

View attachment 425710 Sorry if this has been posted before. I love xkcd (even if I only “get” about half of them),



Mod: Please remember to credit and link to the original when posting content like this.
xkcd: Short Selling
I will also remind people that there's always mouseover text that is usually worth reading if you go to the original. For example:

--ggr

Sorry mod. Ya know, I’ve read about 1000 of these on my iPad, and now you’re telling me I need to go back and read them all over again on my MacBook so I can appreciate the mouseovers????

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is there any public information about Yale's investments

Yale Investments Office

Here's their historical 30 year Asset Allocation chart as of 2018:

Looks like the biggest change is getting out of "Domestic Equity" (I presume that means NYSE stocks). There's also a move to venture capital and natural resources. Read the section of the webpage titled "Asset Allocation":

"The heavy allocation to non-traditional asset classes stems from their return potential and diversifying power. Today's actual and target portfolios have significantly higher expected returns and lower volatility than the 1985 portfolio. Alternative assets, by their very nature, tend to be less efficiently priced than traditional marketable securities, providing an opportunity to exploit market inefficiencies through active management.

"The Endowment's long time horizon is well suited to exploiting illiquid, less efficient markets such as venture capital, leveraged buyouts, oil and gas, timber, and real estate."​

So yeah, there's oil and gas in the mix.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm trying to read this but there's a storm here with heavy rain and hail. The power keeps flickering but is still on. I wonder if someone is offering an opinion.

You need a PowerWall. So you can read about Tesla.

 

[mtndrew1]

SEC - not an issue
Shanghai Gigafactory - real and on schedule
Demand - not an issue
Tax credit halving - not a problem
EU homologation - happened
Parking lot truthers - nuts
Martin Tripp - actual potential sabotage
Skabooshka - completely insane
LA Times - Koch?
Ability to raise capital - remains
Debt payoff in cash - happened (twice)

Am I missing any? I’ve been reading about this company going bankrupt for about a decade now and it’s beginning to get tedious.

 

[LJS22]

Seems like Q3 will be a nice climate to reveal the cyberpunk truck, and while he’s at it show off the SpaceX Roadster package. Who wouldn’t want to invest in this company haha

 

[mtndrew1]

Seems like Q3 will be a nice climate to reveal the cyberpunk truck, and while he’s at it show off the SpaceX Roadster package. Who wouldn’t want to invest in this company haha

Plus S/X refresh, smart summon, and some tangible progress on FSD features. Throw in a CR reliability upgrade or two and an end to cash burn and things could really get colorful.

 

[Swampgator]

Plus S/X refresh, smart summon, and some tangible progress on FSD features. Throw in a CR reliability upgrade or two and an end to cash burn and things could really get colorful.

Don't forget the powertrain and battery day.

 

[X Fan]

If you want a laugh....read this article from the 29th....

Is Tesla about to report record sales? Some on Wall Street say no

 

[VValleyEV]

Sorry mod. Ya know, I’ve read about 1000 of these on my iPad, and now you’re telling me I need to go back and read them all over again on my MacBook so I can appreciate the mouseovers????

Another vote for a tablet-friendly interface here. Please especially no features that only show up with a “mouse over”. I don’t want to have to drive a gasoline-powered car to get from A to B, and I don’t want to have to lug around a laptop to know what is going on here.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

"The Information reporter Amir Efrati noted that the internal org chart "helped to confirm" that Gil Passin, head of manufacturing for years, was also gone from the company." As Top Executives Leave Tesla, Elon Musk Is Left With 29 Direct Reports

Elon has lots of direct reports : "ELON HAS TOO MANY DIRECT REPORTS, MANAGEMENT INCOMPETENCE"

Elon has fewer direct reports : "MASS EXODUS OF TOP LEVEL EXECS INDICATE SINKING SHIP, MANAGEMENT INCOMPETENCE"

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Record quarter? Just imagine how many they will deliver once they solve the demand issue the shorts have assured us is crippling the company.

 

[Driver Dave]

 

[tivoboy]

Tomorrow I'll build my model with puts, thesis being we'll be back under 220$ by next week. Love a good horse race.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tomorrow I'll build my model with puts, thesis being we'll be back under 220$ by next week. Love a good horse race.

Your last bearish prediction of $150-$160 price levels during the big fall was a big miss though:

I don’t see any safety here. I think we’re probably ultimately going to get even lower levels.

If you don’t want to see my new prediction. STOP READING

16X/15X

Or:

We’re so far below any semblance of support it’s pretty scary.

I’m lowering any new entry point to nearly 20% below these levels. Unless we somehow get confidently over 225$ with volume. Which frankly I do not see happening anytime soon

Which you wrote on June 3 when we reached the all time low of $177 - and 20% below those levels would have been ~$140 levels...

That's the problem with technical analysis that ignores the fundamentals.

 

[Artful Dodger]

they need batteries!
- they need to figure out with panasonic how to get those processes operating like greased lightning
- they need to integrate maxwell into a proprietary product

I don't think that's Tesla move on batteries. Here's what I see:

• Build their own Giant-cubed battery cell machine*
• compete with Panasonic on GF1 output, cost
• buy out Panasonic at GF1 at reduced cost
• upgrade GF1 with Maxwell/Grohmann tech

* We'll know more after "Battery and Powertrain Day", hopefully coming this Summer.

Easy-peasy, Lemon-squeezy.

P.S. I think they build 2 (2nd one in the new "Industrial Park" adjacent to GF3). Then of course, 1 per new GF going forward.