Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

If you venture quickly over to the TSLAQ side, you’ll see that they’re excited about the SP going to $270 or so, perfect re-entry point!

Well that's no different than people here claiming "don't worry about the CR report, SP is on sale!"..or "thanks SEC, I have some dry powder, thanks for the sale".

So fanatics on both sides..but I feel like there's one side that's less delusional than the other.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Whoa! I feel good, I knew that I would, now
I feel good, I knew that I would, now
So good, so good, I got you

Whoa! I feel nice, like sugar and spice
I feel nice, like sugar and spice
So nice, so nice, I got you

When I hold you in my arms
I know that I can't do no wrong
And when I hold you in my arms
My love won't do you no harm

And I feel nice, like sugar and spice
I feel nice, like sugar and spice
So nice, so nice, I got you

When I hold you in my arms
I know that I can't do no wrong
And when I hold you in my arms
My love can't do me no harm

And I feel nice, like sugar and spice
I feel nice, like sugar and spice
So nice, so nice, well I got you

Whoa! I feel good, I knew that I would, now
I feel good, I knew that I would
So good, so good, 'cause I got you
So good, so good, 'cause I got you
So good, so good, 'cause I got you

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Deliveries were much higher than production for the quarter, which is probably explained by a large number of cars in transit at the end of Q1. Would this not also suggest that, just as cash flow in Q1 was significantly tightened by the number of cars in transit, cash flow for Q2 will be significantly enhanced by delivery of those cars? This, combined with stable cap-ex, belt-tightening measures, and purported logistics efficiencies gained, could be indication of REALLY positive cashflow for the quarter? Could SP500 still be on the table this year, with an equally strong Q3?
Missing something?

There were 10k in transit at the end of Q1 and 7k at the end of Q2. Certainly fewer this time around, but not by any huge amount. Remove those 3k from Q2’s total and you’re still at 92k, still beating expectations.

 

[Pras]

These demand / delivery hardly reflects China potential. Also we haven’t seen much or SR+ in EU. Last the RHD delivery and potential S refresh will sustain the lift.

 

[JRP3]

Next stop 400k.

420k

 

[RobStark]

And the US Women's Soccer team just beat the Brits!

No, the Englishwomen

 

[ZsoZso]

Nice update of guidance for Q3:

"Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog. We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3."​

There you go Shorties, Demand Problem confirmed!
As in: demand keeps outpacing supply, poor factory workers can never catch a break!

 

[wipster]

No, the Englishwomen

My apologies... should have said the British Women's team. I'll try hard to be more PC when I'm OT in the future.

But this afternoon I have other things on my mind. Anybody know when the 2nd qtr. financial conference call is planned or has it not yet been announced? CNBC mentioned 2 weeks, that sounds too soon by about 2 weeks.

 

[AlMc]

Let us not get ahead of ourselves with talk off $400 SP. I want $300 first......then let's talk.

BIG congrats to all LONGS!

 

[Fact Checking]

There were 10k in transit at the end of Q1 and 7k at the end of Q2. Certainly fewer this time around, but not by any huge amount. Remove those 3k from Q2’s total and you’re still at 92k, still beating expectations.

Note that while this is true, Q2 deliveries outpaced production by 8,152 units, but since delivery paperwork is still trickling in and Tesla released the numbers early, the final reduction in inventory was probably ~500 units more, i.e. 8,650 units.

Also note that the gap is particularly significant in the S/X space: 3,133 units, probably the final number will be around 3,500.

That's a lot of extra cash and recognized revenue, which also has an effect on revenue and marging: production levels are 10% lower than delivery levels, which means that all the fixed costs that are not tied to units in cost of goods will be distributed among 10% more units delivered.

I.e. both Model 3 and S/X margins should be boosted by this effect alone.

While @EVNow and @luvb2b are probably right that the baseline Q2 GAAP profit scenario is probably a "small loss" in the -$200m range, there's a few wildcards such as:

• deferred revenue recognition,
• FCA deal and other ZEV credit sales,
• uptick in Tesla Energy income perhaps, due to them reducing their PowerWall/PowerPack backlog,
• cost savings and layoffs will eventually reduce opex and CoGs as well,
• depreciation and amortization (a non-cash GAAP expense) has been on a steady downwards trend as well,
  
• plus 'stock compensation', which is usually a $100m-$200m GAAP expense, might have been significantly lower in Q2 due to the very low TSLA price levels. (Note the irony here...)

... one or more of these wildcard items could push GAAP income into slightly positive territory.

Probability that GAAP profits reach the ~$252m level that is required for immediate S&P 500 inclusion has increased, but is probably still well below 50% I think.

Not advice.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Here's the problem with shorting and disinformation. Eventually there's a breakout and we're a looooooong way from ATH.

Best of luck Chanos....I'll be on the beach.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla stock surges after record quarter, but there is still a long way to go - Markewatch

 

[dc_h]

Damn, I missed a couple call option Aug 2 lottory tickets at the close.

Hooray, my cash balance is way up in the after market.

Congrats to all longs today. Enjoy your victory. The shorts and pundits will have their knives out soon enough.

 

[Silentk]

happy 16th tesla. you’re doing great despite your perpetual imminent death

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Analyst : this is disappointing because we were expecting N+1

 

[Tslynk67]

My apologies... should have said the British Women's team. I'll try hard to be more PC when I'm OT in the future.

But this afternoon I have other things on my mind. Anybody know when the 2nd qtr. financial conference call is planned or has it not yet been announced? CNBC mentioned 2 weeks, that sounds too soon by about 2 weeks.

No, no, no - it's the English women's team, there's no "British Women's" football team, there's English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland.

 

[elasalle]

So 3Q orders already in place.
2 Q's?
.. what about them short margin calls?
.. what are chances for S&P ?

 

[Swampgator]

Tesla, with 3 models for sale, is coming close to beating BMW USA ( with 17 models). 2019

Tesla June 2019 US sales: 25,975 (est)
BMW June 2019 US sales: 31,627

I think Tesla gets them in Q3, especially with the Raven refresh now in full production.

 

[RobStark]

My apologies... should have said the British Women's team. I'll try hard to be more PC when I'm OT in the future.

Again not the British Women's team.

Scotland had a team at the Women's World Cup.

Wales also has a team but did not make the World Cup.

The US beat England.

Britain does not send a unified team in soccer.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Great numbers. Solid demand and good work on logistics. Model 3 production ramp QoQ is particularly impressive given they had to ramp the new SR+ battery module/pack lines from close to 0 per week at the end of Q1. I presume S/X production run rate ramped up significantly in June with Raven up and running so they should be well positioned to significantly increase S/X production in Q3.

Cash balance is going to look very strong at Q2 with likely positive cash flow before working capital, significant reduction in inventory and the huge cap raise/bond issuance.