Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chickenlittle]

I have never seen a more accurate post on this board and 100% agree

 

[Boomer19]

I have never seen a more accurate post on this board and 100% agree

what is it?? it just shows an IMG icon...

 

[Tslynk67]

5:30 eastern
2:30 Cali

Ugh, way past my bedtime here in CET.

did AJ change his tune because of people like Navin pulling accounts at Morgan Stanley?

I thought it was because they'd made enough shorting and decided it was time to go long...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

what is it?? it just shows an IMG icon...

*woosh*

 

[Nocturnal]

Morgan Stanley says investors are undervaluing Tesla's self-driving future

Does anyone still doubt that analysts are just monkey's throwing darts at the wall?

 

[TradingInvest]

did AJ change his tune because of people like Navin pulling accounts?

I think most likely they switched position, maybe closed Puts at the recent low?

During the recent "invitation only investor call", AJ made some comments like: Tesla is a distress and restructuring situation; Don't expect Apple and Amazon to buy Tesla; nobody wants to take the risk that may burn down buildings; worst case is $10 next year... Seems to me his intention for that call was to break down the stock at a critical point. The stock indeed dropped a lot in that week and went below $180.

I don't know how exactly he profits from that manipulation, I have no doubt his recent call was to manipulate the stock, not to give fair analysis.

 

[Curt Renz]

ARK Invest will conduct its monthly webinar today at 1:30 pm EDT.

Tesla is the overall #1 holding in ARK's ETFs. It is usually discussed either in the main presentations, or in the Q&A session during which we can submit questions.

Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7119127061193927937?__hssc=84851910.2.1560188671297&__hstc=84851910.d44ff1ab5a80e7af44b587c15ebbc66a.1560044479377.1560046336997.1560188671297.3&__hsfp=1702352274&hsCtaTracking=caa70d16-06c4-40e4-a27a-9db0f8c90826|9f08ee5a-1609-4afa-8b88-1887f170d8f4

 

[CyberDutchie]

Tesla's twitter account says they're taking questions for the meeting here:

Say

I asked:

There have been rumors in the media about a complete Model S/X interior & exterior refresh coming in September. This could hurt Q2 sales as some buyers decide to wait (the Osborn effect). If this is a false rumor, why doesn’t Tesla make a public statement?

The standard answer of any corporation is “we don’t respond to rumors”, but Elon has debunked rumors many times in the past. So maybe he’ll answer and shed some light on this. After-all, the rumor is said to have come from a Tesla employee.

 

[traxila]

Does anyone still doubt that analysts are just monkey's throwing darts at the wall?

I very much doubt it. I don't understand why everyone here keeps harping on the stupidity of analysts ad nauseam. They are hitmen (and women) with an agenda that is laid out for them by their Overlords. For the most part, they execute flawlessly. It is rare that their assessments of a stock or company are aligned with their interests in that stock.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Does anyone still doubt that analysts are just monkey's throwing darts at the wall?

Monkeys or their own sh*t?

 

[StealthP3D]

Does anyone still doubt that analysts are just monkey's throwing darts at the wall?

You're saying analyst calls are random? You have more faith in them than I.

 

[JRP3]

I asked:

There have been rumors in the media about a complete Model S/X interior & exterior refresh coming in September. This could hurt Q2 sales as some buyers decide to wait (the Osborn effect). If this is a false rumor, why doesn’t Tesla make a public statement?

The standard answer of any corporation is “we don’t respond to rumors”, but Elon has debunked rumors many times in the past. So maybe he’ll answer and shed some light on this. After-all, the rumor is said to have come from a Tesla employee.

And if it's not false then Elon would be Osborning S/X by answering truthfully.

 

[Joe F]

what is it?? it just shows an IMG icon...

Before the post was removed, it was a failed attempt to post what was probably a picture or gif. Problem was, it was just ascii gibberish. Headers matter.

 

[MP3Mike]

And if it's not false then Elon would be Osborning S/X by answering truthfully.

Possibly the opposite. Some people really hate the idea of the single primary horizontal screen, so if he confirmed that was part of the refresh people might rush to buy the current Raven revision while it was still available.

Of course the only reasonable action for a company is to ignore rumors. They can't just go around busting false rumors because then they would end up confirming true rumors. So people would just make up every possible rumor and see which ones they didn't deny to force Tesla to reveal material non-public information.

 

[KarenRei]

Possibly the opposite. Some people really hate the idea of the single primary horizontal screen, so if he confirmed that was part of the refresh people might rush the buy the current Raven revision while it was still available.

Doubt there's many. I've talked to several people who are waiting for the upgrade. Most don't like the horizontal 3 screen, but when I push as to why they're waiting, it's always, "I want the latest tech!" They'll name specific things like range or charge rate, but it really comes down to them seeing what's currently out as "inferior" to what's coming. "Old tech".

Osbourning is a real problem in an industry that changes rapidly.

 

[Doggydogworld]

BTW, any comparisons on NOA on freeways between Waymo & Tesla ?

I've only seen a few Waymo rider reports on freeways, including one night video. Merges are cautious. Excessively so, IMHO. Aggressiveness is a clear Tesla advantage, because you learn more from wrecks (and near misses). Of course it's a two-edged sword.

So my objection to your claim was that you incorrectly generalized from the fact that Waymo is not data limited for unprotected left turns, that self-driving teams are not data limited at all.

Yeah, I see your issue now. I did not intend to claim Waymo will never be data limited. I said:

Self-driving teams today are not limited by data.​

Once Waymo and others solve all the common cases, for which they have ample data, then lack of edge case data may become a show stopper. Or maybe they'll use another approach for rare edge cases. We won't know until they solve all the common cases. So far no one has.

My question is how will Tesla solve these common cases? The answer is not "more data".

But when Waymo modifies their driving software, they have to re-test it with NEW millions of miles of real driving where that new software makes the decisions, to have full confidence in it.

​

That's the least of their worries. They first run new s/w on 15 million fully recorded "old" miles, then on billions of 'fuzzed' old miles, then on a few million new miles with safety drivers. They'll always have a thousand (or more?) trained drivers testing new s/w, mapping new territories, etc. A thousand trained drivers doing 200 miles per shift is a million miles per week. It's a huge expense, relatively speaking, when you only have 500 cars. It's a rounding error when you have 500,000.

 

[JRP3]

Possibly the opposite. Some people really hate the idea of the single primary horizontal screen, so if he confirmed that was part of the refresh people might rush the buy the current Raven revision while it was still available.

No way would he go into detail like that.

 

[mickificki]

Monkeys or their own sh*t?

definitely ones that fling their poo.

 

[StealthP3D]

My question is how will Tesla solve these common cases? The answer is not "more data".

I don't think you understand how neural net training works.

Because the answer to common cases is the same as the answer to edge cases, more data. Lots of it. This is Tesla's biggest advantage and why they will win the race. Because you need massive amounts of real-world data to get enough edge cases to effectively train for edge cases. Tesla has techniques to filter out these edge cases, amplify them and feed them back into the neural net.

You need a lot of imagination to even begin to understand how neural nets work and even then it's not obvious. Some people are too unimaginative to EVER understand. You can tell who these people are because they are the ones saying "It'll never work" or "We are many years away from practical FSD".

 

[NicoV]

Some more Audi recall info: Audi roept 200 e-trons terug in België

So the recall is international, since in Belgium 200 cars are recalled (of the 300 already delivered). It’s all production from the start of volume production untill march, 1650 in total worldwide (so not 1650 in the usa as previously reported).

The article ends with summing up all the bad things that recently happened to Audi, including a drop of sales of 6% worldwide since the begin of the year.