Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
So much global power - both geopolitical and economic - is derived from fossil fuels. At the end of the day, power is inevitably used to maintain and protect the source of that power. People/organizations don’t have power because they hold office (for the most part) - they hold office because they have power. Whether there’s some kind of cabal of actors that intentionally cultivates this power or whether it’s the organic outcome of market and social forces doesn’t really matter. Either way, it means that the only really comprehensive and sure-fire solution to a systemic problem like climate change is to make fossil fuels useless so that they’re no longer a source of power worth protecting.

I suppose I’m preaching to the choir here, but I didn’t get this until I started paying attention to Tesla (maybe reading Dune helped too…). I used to be more optimistic about the role of governments to mobilize resources for the effort to fight climate change, and I certainly still think they need to play a big role. It’s just that now I’m of the opinion that before we can mobilize those resources at the required scale, we need to take away the source of power from the folks currently standing in the way.

That’s why Tesla makes me so optimistic. It seems like the first effort that really strikes at the wellspring of the power that has set us on this course, and that has resisted any and all efforts to avoid the catastrophe that we now face.
What you said. I came to the same conclusion: the fossil fuel interests are using the economic importance of fossil fuels to control governments. We have to break the economic value of fossil fuels in order to remove their control over governments. Tesla is doing more to break the economic value of fossil fuels than anything else I could invest in, and on top of that, has somehow put itself in a market-leading or near-monopoly position in most of its markets. (Which is why it's a better investment than, say, solar panels.)
 
Our moderators owe us an explanation of why those posts are unacceptable.

It's uncommon for moderators to explain their decisions, but since this one seems to be causing some ripples I think it's ok to make an exception and explain some things (although this should not become a habit).

SoGA Fan Club is correct in noting that the Ferrari luxury/exclusivity discussion has no place in this thread. We try to remove or curb as many of those off topic discussions as we can. But we also have lives to live, and we are in different time zones, so we cannot track everything. Also, I don't think mods want to act like cops all the time. The thread has to remain a pleasant place for exchange of thoughts and information, not a police state.

I liked that you started contributing to the thread and encourage you to keep doing so. I also liked that you gave an update on the number of superchargers under construction being the highest in a long time or even ever. That is very useful information. So is knowing that the stock of unsold Teslas is at a very low level. But what the thread does not need is a daily shoutout about the number of superchargers under construction or the number of cars in stock. As there is little change from day to day it does not add useful information to the conversation. Even if it is just 1 post on 400 posts (of which many contain no useful information either). It will still soon become a nuisance to many, even if there are a lot of people who now mark the posts as informative (that number would probably go down over time, once the updates become repetitive).

So there is no problem with sharing those numbers once every 1-2 weeks, which allows for any trends to be detected, but a daily update will get on everyone's nerves pretty quickly.

You can always start a dedicated thread for these updates, as suggested by some.

Future remarks or questions about moderation can be sent via PM.

Mod
 
There seems to be a perception that no other car manufacturer in the world is actually close to producing EVs.

---

No, we are all aware that there are countless announcements of impending BEVs from almost all manufacturers and /or joint ventures to build battery cell factories but nobody seems to have committed to either 300,000 annual output of the promised BEV or a Gigafactory capable of 25 gWh per year. This Tesla is already doing.

Yeah, I routinely keep track of all the other BEVs manufactured. Thank you Jose Pontes! Here's a brief summary:
-- 2018 BEV+PHEV sales: 2,018,247 (about 2 million)
-- 2018 Chinese sales: 1,102,375 (54% of entire world sales)
-- 2018 Tesla sales: 245,240 (12% of entire world sales)

2018 Tesla China sales weren't very large. So we can safely say that Tesla is over 20% of the non-Chinese sales.

Excluding PHEVs, the global manufacturer rankigns are
#1 Tesla
#2 BAIC
#3 Renault + Nissan if you count them as one company (which you should not)
#4 BYD
#5 Chery (who only make "city cars")

The next five includes Hyundai-Kia and four more Chinese companies.

Recall that this is 2018, and Tesla was only ramped up for half the year. 2019 is going to be a blowout.

Tesla is in a position of market dominance which cannot be broken for years outside China. Their competition in volume production is BAIC and BYD, and BAIC doesn't export. Nobody else is anywhere close.
 
‘Unwinding the wave’ is not happening like I expected. Instead of an extra ship in the last month of the quarter, it seems all ships for this quarter have already left San Francisco.The last ship heading towards EU left 3 days earlier than in Q1.
I wonder why in Q2 the first EU ship only departed the 17th of the first month? At a production rate of 1000/day, Tesla only needs 4 days of production to fill the first ship. Even if Tesla keeps producing USA cars untill 30/6, we should see a ship leave for Europe at the latest at the end of the first week of Q3, if not, not a lot of wave unwinding will happen.
BTW: The Benelux FB groups are currently flooded with pictures of proud people taking delivery of their Model 3.
 
‘Unwinding the wave’ is not happening like I expected. Instead of an extra ship in the last month of the quarter, it seems all ships for this quarter have already left San Francisco.The last ship heading towards EU left 3 days earlier than in Q1.
I wonder why in Q2 the first EU ship only departed the 17th of the first month? At a production rate of 1000/day, Tesla only needs 4 days of production to fill the first ship. Even if Tesla keeps producing USA cars untill 30/6, we should see a ship leave for Europe at the latest at the end of the first week of Q3, if not, not a lot of wave unwinding will happen.
BTW: The Benelux FB groups are currently flooded with pictures of proud people taking delivery of their Model 3.

Due to the tax credit expiration, I do think they'll be producing all out for the US for June. (OK, maybe also Canada given the credits there.) I expect an immediate switch back to Europe right at the start of Q3, so I would also expect a ship to leave for Europe at the end of the first week of Q3 (maybe a day or two late if the switchover causes delays).
 
I believe you are correct that it is likely a combination of the explanations you outlined. I recently had a conversation with a former colleague who is part of delivery leadership at Tesla and he confirmed that business has been steady all quarter. This is positive news for many reasons but two of the more important ones, IMO, is that 1) it's evidence of the shift away from the "wave" delivery approach and 2) indicates high FUD tolerance on the part of the customer base. He also mentioned that the most positive delivery experiences now tend to be those where the customer has little to no interaction with a person at Tesla and instead utilizes the self guided flow in the Tesla app to order, secure financing, and arrange delivery of their Tesla.
That's a meaningless statement. Obviously, the ones where anything goes wrong are the ones where the customer has to phone someone up. The test of whether Tesla's communications are improving are how they deal with these "unusual cases", not how the "easy cases" work.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fact Checking
‘Unwinding the wave’ is not happening like I expected. Instead of an extra ship in the last month of the quarter, it seems all ships for this quarter have already left San Francisco.The last ship heading towards EU left 3 days earlier than in Q1.
I wonder why in Q2 the first EU ship only departed the 17th of the first month? At a production rate of 1000/day, Tesla only needs 4 days of production to fill the first ship. Even if Tesla keeps producing USA cars untill 30/6, we should see a ship leave for Europe at the latest at the end of the first week of Q3, if not, not a lot of wave unwinding will happen.
BTW: The Benelux FB groups are currently flooded with pictures of proud people taking delivery of their Model 3.

They may be unwinding in terms of not trying to get all the cars delivered this quarter. Batching overseas production (which may require some changeover time and line maintenance) together still makes sense as does filling the ships. The down side is the number of days from build to sale.


It's uncommon for moderators to explain their decisions, but since this one seems to be causing some ripples I think it's ok to make an exception and explain some things (although this should not become a habit).

SoGA Fan Club is correct in noting that the Ferrari luxury/exclusivity discussion has no place in this thread. We try to remove or curb as many of those off topic discussions as we can. But we also have lives to live, and we are in different time zones, so we cannot track everything. Also, I don't think mods want to act like cops all the time. The thread has to remain a pleasant place for exchange of thoughts and information, not a police state.

I liked that you started contributing to the thread and encourage you to keep doing so. I also liked that you gave an update on the number of superchargers under construction being the highest in a long time or even ever. That is very useful information. So is knowing that the stock of unsold Teslas is at a very low level. But what the thread does not need is a daily shoutout about the number of superchargers under construction or the number of cars in stock. As there is little change from day to day it does not add useful information to the conversation. Even if it is just 1 post on 400 posts (of which many contain no useful information either). It will still soon become a nuisance to many, even if there are a lot of people who now mark the posts as informative (that number would probably go down over time, once the updates become repetitive).

So there is no problem with sharing those numbers once every 1-2 weeks, which allows for any trends to be detected, but a daily update will get on everyone's nerves pretty quickly.

You can always start a dedicated thread for these updates, as suggested by some.

Future remarks or questions about moderation can be sent via PM.

Mod

And here I though it was because unsold inventory as reported on-line is not necessarily accurate...
 
At the Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car site the Model S inventory in the US has dropped substantially.

6/4/19 - 574
6/5/19 - 556
6/6/19 - 410

X and 3 inventory remain virtually nonexistent.

Looks plausible that Tesla will end Q2 with virtually no inventory.
EV-CPO shows Model S new inventory down by about 140 since I last checked last week; they are doing well at clearing out the old Model S inventory. At this rate they will get it mostly cleared by the end of the month. (The tax credit expiration probably helps.) There is a small burst of X and 3 inventory, but I'm assuming that's just due to normal fluctuation, since the numbers are still under 100 each.
 
Horribly it actually is. I believe they are still unable to make more than about 26,000 per year. They have shown zero interest in expanding.
They are perfectly able. They don't want to. Never did. That car has been a compliance car all along, with the release timed to hopefully blunt the Model 3 effect. #fail
 
Congratulations!

So if I jump on the ferry - from Norway - can I charge my TMX or do you use US standards?

The icons are grey, so they haven't been built yet**. But we're European here :) Non-EU, but EFTA.

** I don't know the Supercharger construction status, but I stop by the service centre every couple days to check on its progress :)
 
EV-CPO shows Model S new inventory down by about 140 since I last checked last week; they are doing well at clearing out the old Model S inventory. At this rate they will get it mostly cleared by the end of the month. (The tax credit expiration probably helps.) There is a small burst of X and 3 inventory, but I'm assuming that's just due to normal fluctuation, since the numbers are still under 100 each.
In Belgium, clearing out the pre-raven cars doesn’t go well. The last week only 1 car disappeared from the 16 available.
 
In Belgium, clearing out the pre-raven cars doesn’t go well. The last week only 1 car disappeared from the 16 available.
Well, there's about 156 to clear in Europe, about 41 in Asia-Pacific, about 58 in Canada, and about 343 in the US. If they can clear out the US pre-Raven S inventory, I'm not particularly worried about their ability to clear out the rest-of-world inventory. Further discounts may be necessary in some markets, but it's just a small number of cars.
 
Musk and Tesla in general are *remarkably difficult* to reach, in my personal experience. I doubt either a letter or a phone call would work. Filing a federal lawsuit or getting a news story onto Bloomberg seem to be two ways to get their attention. Or asking at the stockholders' meeting, maybe.

The communications problems at Tesla are SERIOUS. I am not kidding. Really really serious.

Not wrong. There’s still no official word on the yellowing screens. Or, rather, there’s about 40 different words, many of which contradict each other.
 
Due to the tax credit expiration, I do think they'll be producing all out for the US for June. (OK, maybe also Canada given the credits there.) I expect an immediate switch back to Europe right at the start of Q3, so I would also expect a ship to leave for Europe at the end of the first week of Q3 (maybe a day or two late if the switchover causes delays).
Cars produced the last week (or two) will have problems getting delivered in NA so we may see more ships being loaded starting then.
 
That is a poor article because it completely ignores Raven.

Yes, S & X pre-raven sales are lower. Esp S (he actually thinks the otherway round because he thinks S interior refresh will happen). And he completely ignored the drivetrain refresh people actually care about. I'm not even sure the people actually want S interior refreshed to look like 3.

Long term I expect S+X sales to be about 15k to 20k per quarter instead of 25k from earlier years.
I think it will go back to 25K, but I think the mix is going to be much more towards the X -- the S is similar to the 3 but the X isn't similar to the Y. X only just passed S in US deliveries in 2018.
I'm guessing we'll see a shift from the current 12.5K S / 12.5K X to more like 10K S / 15K X.