With SP below $187, SpaceX is now worth more than Tesla
Now we can have a race. First to 1 trillion.
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With SP below $187, SpaceX is now worth more than Tesla
The problem is everything thinks there's a demand issue.
This is an accurate sentence, I'm afraid. "Once Tesla scales up to _______ cars per month, then $$$$" is a thing a lot of us (and the market) have been anticipating and here we are hoping that 90k might bring the quarter to break even. I get the market's reaction and people wondering if it's even possible to make mass market electric cars profitably. Time is on our side though. Every day brings more interest, acceptance, and inevitability on the demand side and Tesla gets better at making the cars on the supply side.
* they were also BMW owners, and understand people that areafraid to change. But Teslas are so much better, they kept saying "it's the future". They also told me: "Germans had a candle, and they improved it until it was perfect. But, at the end of the day, it's still a candle".
Yea make sure to put a SpaceX rocket in the background tooGreat visuals! Please somebody do this
I wasn't sure at first, but every industry expert that doesn't work for a Tesla competitor and now Nissan agree with Tesla's approach.
Each Waymo car has 30k in Lidar equipment. That's an insane cost.
Or every time the price drops, fund managers see more relative value. The price is becoming more and more attractive every day.
The problem is that you an embedded implication that the company is near worthless in the short term - which i disagree with.
You're making the mistake that shorties do by segregating the EV and ICE markets.
Rivian doesn't have to be better then Tesla necessarily, just close enough, but better than ICE.... Something that will be easier and easier to do as time goes on and EV tech get better and batteries get cheaper.
Do you have any concrete reasons to believe that? (Despite many thinking lidar is necessary) Do you watch the recent videos on autopilot on youtube? Progress is really impressive. I like for example the channel Tesla Driver.
The factory paint should match better with the rest of the car.I haven’t needed any repairs, so not sure how the process works (thank goodness). But, are they really pre-painting all body panels? Seems impractical given how they’re streamlining processes. But, if they really are, then definitely good for those needing repairs. Though some paint shops around me do better paint work than factory paint jobs.
Lex Friedman makes a good case for both but agrees with camera based approach for long term solutions in autonomy. I think the chip to camera processing will eventually be able to hold more unique situations that drivers come across Day to Day and improve far past the capabilities of LiDAR. I think the people who agree with Tesla in this approach view LiDAR as a great short term solution but ultimately will be limited. Once camera based approach surpasses LiDAR then it’s essentially a closed case. The question is does the technology pass it in 1,5,10, or 20 years. If you’re Elon the answer needs to be in the next 5 years and he’s betting by rate of improvement it will take place in the next 12-18 months.Um I don't think it's every expert. George Hotz and Anthony Lewandowski may agree with Tesla, but they are also biased in that it is also their approach.
We all know the Lidar used eventually will not cost 30k. It will be peanuts compared to the value added of L4/L5.
I'm not saying Lidar approach is going to win, I'm just saying no way it's near 100% probability that camera-based approach will win right now. Just be reasonable and talk as if its more like 50/50.
the older the car, the more likely it is that the factory paint does not match with the color of the rest of the car, faded due to sunlight etc.The factory paint should match better with the rest of the car.
Study NIO, you might change mind. NIO's EVs are better than ICE vehicles, but Tesla will produce Model 3 and Y in China, which will be better than NIO's EVs and cost less. That's a big problem for NIO. It's difficult for them to price their cars. Buyers are not stupid.
Tesla's lead in EV technology and software is substantial. it's not going to be easy for others to catch up.
If the demand for EV pickup truck is half million a year, and Tesla can only supply 10% of the demand, then your argument would make sense to me.
What type of Model S? Raven or pre-Raven
Some of us who might claim such encyclopedic knowledge of all those subject would be guilty of hubris or worse. Even the most capable and diligent human beings could not justifiably claim such knowledge.
That said, seriously diligent and capable people of normal intelligence are quite capable of making "...pretty accurate predictions..." in a fairly short term. Longer term there are too many variables for any human being to be "pretty accurate" except in an exceedingly narrow respect. Even the famously prescient people and most successful forecasters such as Leonardo da Vinci, Albert Einstein, Thomas Edison and Warren Buffet have had much less accuracy than would be needed to suggest anything other than huge success in some areas.
Honestly it seems almost impossible for anybody to think they know what will happen regarding BEV adoption in general, much less TSLA. All of us probably have deep conviction about what should happen if mankind can thrive. Deep conviction and highly convincing scientific evidence are obviously insufficient.
Personally, I spend most of my time assessing risks. Some people suggest I am quite good at that, and some invest according to my disclosed views. I have consistently been beating most securities market indices for quite a few years. Even so, I'll never suggest that my future results will reflect my past ones.
Thus, the last year has been my worst in two decades, partly because of my TSLA position, partly because of extraneous foreign exchange movements. Despite that I am adjusting very little, because I expect longer term positive results.
However, my own optimism is seriously constrained by my extreme pessimism regarding geopolitical disarray brought about by a quite small number of influential but incompetent government leaders in crucial parts of the world. The previous sentence is beyond my ability to judge, but the effects of that situation are far beyond anything I can conceive to predicting with even minimal accuracy. Therefore I expect to do well enough to survive financially, certainly avoiding personal catastrophe.
All of us investing in TSLA are quite exposed to the consequences of politically-controlled economic decisions. For my part I am quite convinced that Tesla is already making major decisions that will reduce these external negative consequences. GF-3, subsequent GF's and continuing innovation will serve us very well, I think. The primary constraint is certainly how long Tesla will need to decrease the present inordinate dependency on US sales and production.
Dealing with all the issues responsibly and competently still will not assure any reasonably accurate long term forecasts. Such will only reduce the consequences of errors.
Why on earth are people bringing curbed wheels to tesla to deal with?But I will tell you what affects demand. A friend of mine picked up his M3 a month ago and within a few days damaged his wheel on a curb. It has been sitting in the service center for three weeks with no ETA on when parts will arrive.
Correct, there are many wheel repair facilities as well as a good supply of used Tesla wheels of all types on ebay and on this site for sale.Why on earth are people bringing curbed wheels to tesla to deal with?
"This is utter nonsense."
For now. GF3 should make high end cars for China as well. Huge advantages due to tariffs on the higher end models.GF3 only builds SR's for the China "region" (so not just China, but not the world either). EU, NA, etc will be supplied from Fremont still.
Correct, there are many wheel repair facilities as well as a good supply of used Tesla wheels of all types on ebay and on this site for sale.
Um I don't think it's every expert. George Hotz and Anthony Lewandowski may agree with Tesla, but they are also biased in that it is also their approach.
We all know the Lidar used eventually will not cost 30k. It will be peanuts compared to the value added of L4/L5.
I'm not saying Lidar approach is going to win, I'm just saying no way it's near 100% probability that camera-based approach will win right now. Just be reasonable and talk as if its more like 50/50.
WTF? If I had a nearly new car that needed wheel repair, going to the dealer/manufacturer would be my first choice. I would expect Tesla to be able to replace the wheel in a few days. Until the parts supply system gets fixed, we're going to keep hearing about stories like this and they'll continue to give Tesla a black eye. This situation is fodder for the naysayers.Why on earth are people bringing curbed wheels to tesla to deal with?
"This is utter nonsense."