Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[pyromatter]

Tesla rolls out improved Model S/X battery thermal management software amid HK fire investigation


“We currently have well over half a million vehicles on the road, which is more than double the number that we had at the beginning of last year, and Tesla’s team of battery experts uses that data to thoroughly investigate incidents that occur and understand the root cause. Although fire incidents involving Tesla vehicles are already extremely rare and our cars are 10 times less likely to experience a fire than a gas car, we believe the right number of incidents to aspire to is zero.

“As we continue our investigation of the root cause, out of an abundance of caution, we are revising charge and thermal management settings on Model S and Model X vehicles via an over-the-air software update that will begin rolling out today, to help further protect the battery and improve battery longevity,” the spokesperson said.

 

[Pezpunk]

im in NOVA/DC area and i see easily 15+ everyday. theres typically 10 or so in my work garage by its self. they are all over. a healthy mix of S/3/X too, not just 3's

confirmed, they are becoming one of the most common vehicles on my commute. and although i don't count, i seem to see almost as many S/X as Model 3. it's a pretty affluent area, though.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yes, targeted web ads - that are also very cheap. Just to follow up with people who visit their site, search for Tesla on the web or Youtube etc.

ps : Everytime this comes up somehow people don't like the idea. I think people are confusing "demand" and actual sales. Ads are to convert existing demand to sales - more a sales tool than a demand gen. There is a nice post by @jhm in this thread on this.

Tell me about it. There is great confusion and lack of agreement on what "demand" means. My view is that the demand for any product is how many potential buyers both know what the product offers, desire it and have the means to purchase it fairly soon. Advertising, of whatever mode, serves to increase the number who know the product and increase their desire. I suspect many confuse appeal with demand. That millions of teenagers 'get' Tesla and dream to one day own one doesn't equal large "demand" because they cannot purchase one for years. When demand is where you want it, no extra price reductions are necessary to meet your sales goals.
Targeted web ads, as you suggest, would be a good, inexpensive place to start. There are surely other creative marketing approaches that for modest amounts can widen the pool of those who know the product and want it. A portion of that pool will develop into 'demand' and
eventually sales. For a product as compelling as world beating EVs, a tipping point should be reached in few more years and advertising will again be unnecessary to sustain rapid growth.

 

[Fred42]

Harvard Business Review article "Tesla’s Strong Brand Gives It Unusual Expansion Potential"
Saying that if the auto insurance do well then there are more profit to be had by expanding to life insurance.

Interesting quote:
In 2017, Gerber baby food generated $900 million in life insurance premiums; that’s 75% the size of its core baby food business.

"What if Tesla could raise debt financing platforms like Yieldstreet from retail consumers or Tesla enthusiasts who love them?"
Tesla Savings Bonds. Previously I thought this might seem like an act of desperation that could be used against Tesla. Now I think they might as well do it.

 

[Tslynk67]

In other words, despite his training, his many years in the field and his hundreds of research projects, he’s average at best at what he does.

I'll disagree with that statement. He's responsible for a lot of EC funded research in a wide number of areas and is very highly respected. As a scientist you challenge everything until you have proof, and then you challenge it more. Given that Li-ion batteries have quite well-known degradation parameters over time and charging cycles I can understand doubts over the longevity of Tesla battery packs. In fact there are any number of tricks you could pull that would be easier than actually coming up with newer chemistries and super-efficient thermal management that would improve the life of the pack.

I hasten to add that I disagree with him, but it's based more on belief than knowledge. I believe Tesla has superior chemistry and thermal management, plus other sh1t we don't know about...

 

[Electroman]

Just a quick comment from Sunny Southern CA.

It’s unbelievable to me how many Tesla’s I see here on a daily basis. If Tesla could sell cars around the rest of the US like they do here it would be fantastic. I just spent a month in Dallas last January and would spot one occasionally.... not sure what the rest of the country is like but the statistics I’ve seen show that a huge majority of their cars are sold here in CA.

Just a matter of time before it happens ... IMHO.

I see a ton of them here in North DFW area now compared to just say 6 months. I see alteast 5 or 6 every day. Most of them Model 3.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, today’s SP action was much ado about nothing...

 

[Duffer]

I think it's because Elon is afraid of losing control. He trusts himself but doesn't trust dumb investors like us, and REALLY doesn't trust the Wall St Institutions. But he can't keep up with dilution either.

GREEN! just now.

This. (re Capital Raise)
1. He knows that if given a chance they would take control and Tesla's mission would end.
2. The FUD from W/S banks, and other attacks (SEC, lawsuits) won't stop.
3. It's just another liability

Here in Menlo Park I literally see 15 on a 1.2 mile commute to Starbucks and a different 15 on the way back. ;-)

Well they are called the Palo Alto Camery for a reason...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

As a scientist you challenge everything until you have proof, and then you challenge it more

True, but you don’t usually try to spread unfounded doubt about direct observations and data. What you’ve described him doing sounds awfully similar to the climate change deniers and antivaxxers.

 

[TradingInvest]

now if only sentry mode wasn't such a drain on the battery:

Two vandals in a gas-guzzler captured on video laughing as they key a Tesla

Sentry mode should take very little energy if properly implemented. They can wake up 5 milliseconds for every second, then stay awake when something is detected.

 

[ruralectric]

Saw this in my news feed. Supercharger cabinets now being build in Buffalo.

Tesla says solar factory will now make EV chargers and other products - Reuters

And a link to a local piece on same. Buffalo News generally leans anti-Tesla.

Tesla is adding new products in Buffalo as its solar business slumps

Edit: The Buffalo News piece is actually pretty informative.

 

[Tslynk67]

Time for you to read the Maxwell presentation from Jan '19, slide 9-10 and be amazed!!
Solid state, no cobalt, higher density and more cycle lifetime

And afterwards you watch this video

I agree with you, Cobbler, but it's easy to make PPT's and hard to make some of the things they're selling a scalable, commercial reality...

 

[ZeApelido]

Production line size due to removing the ovens.

Right, so removing the ovens is going to reduce volume needed to produce cells by a factor of 16?

Originally the Gigafactory 1 was going to eventually produce 150 GWh / year.

Will this allow it to get to 2000 GWh / year if desired?

World's first Terafactory?

 

[Tslynk67]

Harvard Business Review article "Tesla’s Strong Brand Gives It Unusual Expansion Potential"
Saying that if the auto insurance do well then there are more profit to be had by expanding to life insurance.

Interesting quote:
In 2017, Gerber baby food generated $900 million in life insurance premiums; that’s 75% the size of its core baby food business.

Blimey, that Ross bloke pops-up everywhere, doesn't he!

 

[JRP3]

To be more clear, my guess is that the number one and quickest benefit of Maxwell’s technology is to allow for a thicker cathode layer and hence a higher active materials volume ratio and higher cell energy densities even with existing cathode chemistry.

Yes but you're ignoring the other immediate and important benefit, elimination of space taking and time consuming energy wasting drying ovens from the manufacturing process, along with the highly toxic solvent. This provides instant production speed improvements and cost reductions. I think this is the most important positive factor in the near term. Any increase in energy density is of course a welcome bonus on top of that.

It looks like Maxwell is increasing cathode thickness c.50% within the current 18650 cell design. So they must be reducing thickness of the electrolyte, anode or separators etc a corresponding amount (anode thickness reduction would require a new anode chemistry with higher energy density). If they manage to fully utilize the full thickness of this cathode material without adverse impact to power density, safety, cycle life etc, they should get a significant increase in cell energy density without changing the cathode chemistry while remaining viable for quick deployment in EVs.

I think there might also be an increase in energy density even with the same thickness cathode, the old evaporating solvent has to leave empty spaces behind with no active material.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla rolls out improved Model S/X battery thermal management software amid HK fire investigation


“We currently have well over half a million vehicles on the road, which is more than double the number that we had at the beginning of last year, and Tesla’s team of battery experts uses that data to thoroughly investigate incidents that occur and understand the root cause. Although fire incidents involving Tesla vehicles are already extremely rare and our cars are 10 times less likely to experience a fire than a gas car, we believe the right number of incidents to aspire to is zero.

“As we continue our investigation of the root cause, out of an abundance of caution, we are revising charge and thermal management settings on Model S and Model X vehicles via an over-the-air software update that will begin rolling out today, to help further protect the battery and improve battery longevity,” the spokesperson said.

So what does this imply, a longer taper at the end of SuperCharging?

 

[Duffer]

now if only sentry mode wasn't such a drain on the battery:

Two vandals in a gas-guzzler captured on video laughing as they key a Tesla

Sentry mode should take very little energy if properly implemented. They can wake up 5 milliseconds for every second, then stay awake when something is detected.

Monitoring shouldn't use too much energy. However, range might be affected somewhat after applying suitable voltage to the offender(s)

 

[Tslynk67]

True, but you don’t usually try to spread unfounded doubt about direct observations and data. What you’ve described him doing sounds awfully similar to the climate change deniers and antivaxxers.

AFAIK he's not spreading anything, it's just discussions we have over a few beers or when driving to gigs - we share the same fine taste in music, other than his liking for Genesis...

 

[mongo]

Right, so removing the ovens is going to reduce volume needed to produce cells by a factor of 16?

Originally the Gigafactory 1 was going to eventually produce 150 GWh / year.

Will this allow it to get to 2000 GWh / year if desired?

World's first Terafactory?

Perhaps, but they'll still need 16x the equipment (there is also the issue of the numbers for finished pack kWh (including imported cells) vs internally manufactured cells).
If the Maxwell tech works out, that will provide an additional 20%-100% boost in Wh..

 

[DaveT]

I admire Elon, but his predictions/timelines are useless, and have caused tremendous financial harm to believers like myself that trade based on what he says.

I would add his predictions/timelines are most often counter-productive and damaging.