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Slightly off-topic - meaning I will gladly move this to a more appropriate thread if asked to do so, and told how - earlier this morning I listened to the Call You and Yours podcast on BBC Radio 4, originally broadcast yesterday. The topic - and my reason for listening to it: What's it like to buy and run an EV in the UK? So here's a quick synopsis of this 40-minute broadcast (note: much of this is strictly relevant to the UK market):
  • listeners would call in to describe their experience owning an EV in the UK; without exception they all love driving an EV vs. a petrol car... mmm, ok, great! But...
  • most of them complained about the limited range, and their reaction varied from "not for long drives, city driving only, it's a commuter car really; they're not there yet with the technology / not ready to become your only driver" to "well you just need to plan ahead, and I now know exactly how many miles there are to my office, my kid's school, etc."
  • it quickly emerges that many of the callers own either 1st gen. Leafs (my grammar-loving brain wants me to type Leaves, but I know I shouldn't) or Zoes, or a Mitsubishi PHEV, or various other hybrids with very low electric range, up to 100 miles;
  • on the topic of hybrids: funny / cringey comment from a guy who just bought a Toyota Auris hybrid this March and, when asked how often he needs to charge, he replies "oh, no, mine is what's known as a self-charging hybrid" - completely unchallenged, in spite of him admitting seconds earlier that the petrol engine charges the battery! So many things wrong here, but moving on...
  • the real barrier to a smooth transition to EVs is the insufficient charging infrastructure in cities and on motorways, the fact that many charging points are either not working or are ICEd (although nobody actually used that word) and also the multiple charging networks, each requiring a separate membership and its own card or phone app, and it should be more straightforward, be able to pay with your debit / credit card
  • prices are still too high, it is expected that by 2025 there will be price parity with ICEVs as battery technology improves
  • living in a flat is a non-starter for owning an EV if there is insufficient public charging in a city, says a fellow who lives in a flat in London and owns an EV, admitting he paid £2000 for getting a connection to a charging system installed in his building by the management company, which charging system cost £3000 to install (and for which he had to also pay his share)
  • it occurred to me that any person interested in the actual practical benefits of buying or owning an EV in the UK and listening to this would get the impression that it's just a bunch of weird tree-huggers buying these cars in spite of how difficult it is to own one (most owners mentioned buying an EV because they wanted to "go green" and they enjoyed the "silence", and diesels stink, literally): EVs are expensive to buy, difficult to charge due to poor or inexistent infrastructure, and they have limited range, according to owners!
  • I kept waiting to hear someone mention Tesla, not because I'm an investor, but because I would have thought that one of the world's largest EV-only car companies, making the EVs with the longest range and the best performance, is relevant to this topic... the word was only uttered once, in the absolute final minute of the show, in connection to the moral implications of Li-ion batteries requiring cobalt, which is mined by child labor in the DR Congo (yeah... that came up!), and the expert invited on the show, Prof. David Bailey from Birmingham Business School, said that Tesla is "looking at alternative options" to reduce Co content in the batteries, and BMW has made a big effort on this!
  • there's clearly a lot of demand for EVs, because VW just took 10,000 preorders in the first 24h for the ID3 "which costs £26,000", and the Opel Ampera (?) has 4000 preorders! Wow! Any other... car company or model you might... want to mention on the topic of large preorder numbers? No? Mmmkay then...
  • things like the large EV ownership in Norway were mentioned, along with the benefits the local government provided for increased adoption, although it might have been relevant to mention that more than half of new cars purchased there are now EVs... but no.
My take: this is a good cross-section of how the general population (again, in the UK) views the experience of owning and driving an EV. People who own old-ish non-Tesla EVs will complain about range, people looking into buying new EVs will complain about price, and everyone will complain about the charging infrastructure. The big take-away is that it's a big headache and you'd better be prepared to completely change your driving habits!

And there's your lack of demand! People may hear about new EV models and performance numbers, but unless they really decide to start reading into the whole experience of owning one and trying to get as much info on the topic, they will just live with prejudiced views and stupid soundbites and won't consider it.

Demand will grow organically as more people understand that these barriers are being knocked down one after another - and most of these barriers don't even exist anymore! I believe Europe will be a HUGE market for EVs, and the transition will be fairly sudden, but it's people's awareness and attitudes that will first need to change.

This is not to far from “the rest of the US”. Generally, it seems as though the vast majority of media presentation re EV ownership ends up talking to a Volt/Bolt/Nissan/Prius and some other PHEV owner who all echo what you saw. Even the “skeptic” media folks do the same thing. If Tesla gets referenced, it’s by someone who: 1. Does not own one. 2. Makes an offhanded remark about Elon Musk(most recent John Oliver HBO gig) or 3. Parrots some Koch bros./PetroChem FUD that EV’s have same carbon FP as hybrids(Adam Ruins Everything,NetFlix). Same thing for renewable/battery combo, not there yet, not available, never scalable etc. (Skeptics Guide to Universe Podcast).

Now I know that Tesla remains production constrained and adverts are attracting buyers for unavailable products, but, there definitely needs to be a concerted effort add facts to the media narrative, especially the “factual, objective/skeptical ones” as folks expect that at least these are the go to for “the real story”.

I expect and hope that someone at Tesla is allocated to build future goodwill and the customers that follow and slightly in advance of the production wave so that supply always at least seems to be very tight.

My wife and I have given test rides, been to EV events to demo to public, given rides to our Congress people and have even got a few pieces into the local press that were objective and favorable. This needs to be a priority going forward that has to go a bit beyond word of mouth.

Fire Away!
 
I do not think so as you never want to mix cells. Because so many are used in parallel one is limited by the weakest cell.

In the parallel groups, it is the total capacity of the group that matters. If you have one cell fail open, then the group loses that percentage of capacity and become the limiting part of the pack. Adding a weaker cell in addition to the existing capacity still increases capacity and the cells in that group self balance based on voltage.
 
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I’ve heard the number of 1,500 workers in India needed to manually sort through about 1 billion frames to end up with 3 million labeled images. This is per year and not low-skilled workers so at a significant cost.

Interesting, thank you. Where are your numbers from? Is this relating to Tesla or a general rule of thumb you’ve heard in the industry?
I heard Tesla largely outsources data labelling, but I’d be interested to know where to and how many hours of manual labelling work per year they are paying for.

Your numbers imply c.400 images reviewed per person per hour with c.1.25 useful labelled images per hour.
I would have expected Tesla’s selective data collection/automatic filtering to result in much more than a 0.3% acceptance rate at the level of the human labellers.
 
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Meanwhile you get people like EVNow who spend inordinate amount of time here acting like they know something but for some reason can't level up and do actual math.
LOL. Show us your math (BTW, go back and read, I came pretty close to S+X delivery for Q1). BTW, your ASP & COGS for Q1 don't really hold up. I've posted my estimates in the finance thread, pls post yours.

BTW, what's up with repeatedly saying I spend a lot of time here ? I actually spend quite a bit less time than others, but that should be none of your business anyway.
 
Equipping cars that collect 360 video and car speed, steering, acceleration and braking input, and uploading all those data reliability is hard, and you have to pay wireless carrier.
Well, if someone like Waymo can spend $100k per car, they can definitely spend some money to upload data (or they can use WiFi). I don't think that is the hard part. They can also write stuff to filter out data like Tesla does (but in a bigger computer in the trunk).

I think no one has tried this because they think simulation with a few hundred cars is enough. We'll see.
 
Have a look around and see who else has a Gigafactory laying about to scale the technology almost immediately.

This can’t be emphasized enough. Many of us have read the reports, seen the executive interviews stating how such and such OEM was/would be investing hundreds of millions/billions in battery technology and mfging. Some even before that putting together committees to discuss plans to invest in battery tech/battery mfging.

In the meantime, Tesla just went and did it. Where are the weekly videos of the other Gigafactories being built around the world? Oh, that’s right. Still talking about it or taking their sweet time.

Not only did Tesla somehow do yet another thing thought impossible; make a deal with the Chinese government to fully own their own car mfging business IN China?! What up with that?? But they even managed to convince the Chinese to build it as if all our lives depended on it, yesterday. That deal was only finalized in December 2018, construction started early THIS January. Cars are going to be being built in there in no more than a year’s time. Are you kidding me?! That right there - impossible. Has to be because not a single other OEM has managed to do it anywhere in the world.

Yeah, I scoff at all of you who doubt TN will be a reality sooner rather than later. Tesla will do it and it will be a compressed deadline like every other thing they do even if/when the original compressed timeline is missed.
 
This can’t be emphasized enough. Many of us have read the reports, seen the executive interviews stating how such and such OEM was/would be investing hundreds of millions/billions in battery technology and mfging. Some even before that putting together committees to discuss plans to invest in battery tech/battery mfging.

In the meantime, Tesla just went and did it. Where are the weekly videos of the other Gigafactories being built around the world? Oh, that’s right. Still talking about it or taking their sweet time.

Not only did Tesla somehow do yet another thing thought impossible; make a deal with the Chinese government to fully own their own car mfging business IN China?! What up with that?? But they even managed to convince the Chinese to build it as if all our lives depended on it, yesterday. That deal was only finalized in December 2018, construction started early THIS January. Cars are going to be being built in there in no more than a year’s time. Are you kidding me?! That right there - impossible. Has to be because not a single other OEM has managed to do it anywhere in the world.

Yeah, I scoff at all of you who doubt TN will be a reality sooner rather than later. Tesla will do it and it will be a compressed deadline like every other thing they do even if/when the original compressed timeline is missed.
But..but..power point this...spreadsheet that...company press release the other./S
 
Not possible. Cell energy original spec is known. Count of cells in pack is known. It would be possible to fake the onscreen readout of energy/range, but you can’t fake actual range. Owners would know if the car stopped short.

"That's my move!"
2219.png
 
Now I'd add that he's very pessimistic on timescales and on Tesla in general, he just doesn't believe that battery packs have enough charge cycles to be viable and that Tesla are somehow gaming the system to show such good degradation over time.

In other words, despite his training, his many years in the field and his hundreds of research projects, he’s average at best at what he does.
 
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I was writing deep learning code 10 years ago. I know far better than rationalizing robots like FC don't. The lidar v. vision subject is dead. Tesla wins that. The subject of planning and logic is not solved. Tesla has no idea and is nowhere close to solving that.

You were writing deep learning code before GPUs were and before they were deep? Uh, not the same.
 
Well, it's very easy to pivot...

Is it? When a company has invested all its money and sunk all its personnel and brain power into a single direction, it’s easy to just give that all up, let if go down the toilet, and change direction and start all over?

No, it’s not.

Elon Musk and his companies have mastered the pivot despite getting crucified every single time, by many people thinking they know better. Most other companies, not so much.
 
This can’t be emphasized enough. Many of us have read the reports, seen the executive interviews stating how such and such OEM was/would be investing hundreds of millions/billions in battery technology and mfging. Some even before that putting together committees to discuss plans to invest in battery tech/battery mfging.

In the meantime, Tesla just went and did it. Where are the weekly videos of the other Gigafactories being built around the world? Oh, that’s right. Still talking about it or taking their sweet time.

Not only did Tesla somehow do yet another thing thought impossible; make a deal with the Chinese government to fully own their own car mfging business IN China?! What up with that?? But they even managed to convince the Chinese to build it as if all our lives depended on it, yesterday. That deal was only finalized in December 2018, construction started early THIS January. Cars are going to be being built in there in no more than a year’s time. Are you kidding me?! That right there - impossible. Has to be because not a single other OEM has managed to do it anywhere in the world.

Yeah, I scoff at all of you who doubt TN will be a reality sooner rather than later. Tesla will do it and it will be a compressed deadline like every other thing they do even if/when the original compressed timeline is missed.
The Chinese realize that their peoples health and the future of life on earth is at stake ... unlike the clowns running our country .... Ever notice the Tesla vehicles have a distinct Asian look and feel to them... I predict Tesla will be widely successful in Asia regardless of the geopolitics dujour....they will figure out a way to make it work because it is what they want to have happen similar to Tesla ... keep the GF3 updates coming