Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

SpaceX about to launch starlink, and on the brink of becoming “extremely cash flow positive”.

And I’m seeing my low strike TSLA calls rising while high strike ones drifting down.

Is market expecting a takeover?

 

[Driver Dave]

1) fast and spirited driving -- This one
2) FSD/AP -- The average consumer won't believe until it really happens and is common
3) environment / emission -- The average consumer doesn't care/doesn't believe there is a problem (at least not where I live)
4) cost of ownership - The average consumer doesn't believe.
5) reliability -- The average consumer doesn't believe (Remember "Quality was job one" only it wasn't)
6) OTA/ tech -- This one
7) American auto taking back the lead after many decades -- This one, maybe
8) spacex package in roadster -- This one
9) mobile servicing -- This one

10) No scheduled maintenance required. -- This one

Basically the message is convenience and cool factor.

Never deal with a dealer again.

That might be good enough...

 

[elasalle]

Never deal with a dealer again.

That might be good enough...

One more - Safest Car

 

[Nocturnal]

1) fast and spirited driving -- This one
2) FSD/AP -- The average consumer won't believe until it really happens and is common
3) environment / emission -- The average consumer doesn't care/doesn't believe there is a problem (at least not where I live)
4) cost of ownership - The average consumer doesn't believe.
5) reliability -- The average consumer doesn't believe (Remember "Quality was job one" only it wasn't)
6) OTA/ tech -- This one
7) American auto taking back the lead after many decades -- This one, maybe
8) spacex package in roadster -- This one
9) mobile servicing -- This one

10) No scheduled maintenance required. -- This one

Basically the message is convenience and cool factor.

You are forgetting the biggest one, charging vs gassing up. This is the biggest block for most consumers. They don't get it. Maybe show somebody stopping at a gas station in the cold, then show another person warming their car up from the app and just driving to work.

I hope this doesn't sound sexist (it shouldn't?) but some marketing with the eye for what women care about would be great. The above example is a good one. Women are less likely to care about speed than men, but more likely to complain about standing in the cold. Heck, you could take a nice shot at sleazy car salesman and it would fit the bill. They could do this in a way that wouldn't be pandering or condescending.

And to overly virtue signal here, not having to stand in the cold while I fill up my gas tank is certainly something I enjoy about the car. One of the best parts TBH.

Edit +1 on safety. When I bought my Tesla even I didn't realize how friggin safe they are. I assumed they were in the ballpark of other performance sedans. No clue that they are safer than Volvos.

 

[canoemore]

Sorry if this 49 second long video was already posted. Once again the most successful solution may simply be to mimic the intelligence that nature has already perfected (this time for autonomous driving patterns)

Evolution is just the coolest thing. Maybe Douglas Adams wasn't too far off with the notion of Earth as a giant computer...

 

[Remus]

The motors are in front and behind the axle and there is a big differential/transmission in between them. Nothing eliminated there.

View attachment 407591

Why do you need differential when you have each wheel driven by a separate motor?

Why does it matter the motors not on the same axle with the wheel it drives? All the gears in the gearbox do not have to be co-axil.

 

[EVNow]

Do we know when/how the Fiat money will be hitting Tesla's books? I assume it's spread out over time but that's a huge chunk of cash no matter how you book it.

Flat as in profit/loss. If they can pull it back to a small loss that would a pretty good scenario I think.

Break even would require > 100k delivery and improved margins, so, we shouldn't expect that. Any improvement in delivery numbers would improve P&L. My optimistic rough estimate is for 95 million in loss with 94k delivery and 22% margin. With a delivery of more realistic 80k and same margin we get 280M in losses.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Panasonic Corporation President Kazuhiro Tsuga effectively debunked speculations alleging that the Japanese company’s relationship with American electric car maker Tesla is on the rocks. During a recent Q&A session, Tsuga explained the dynamic between Tesla and Panasonic, as well as his insights about the idea of the electric car maker utilizing another battery supplier for Gigafactory 3.

Tesla battery partner Panasonic debunks rumors about alleged Gigafactory 1 conflicts

 

[Todd Burch]

They might have to step up their Canadian version production somewhat. I suspect Quebec is similar. If so that would put about 15 to 20 percent of Tesla production going to Canada.

There's a Canadian version? Is that where the horn goes "Excuse me, may I pass?" instead of "HONK!"?

 

[Nocturnal]

Evolution is just the coolest thing. Maybe Douglas Adams wasn't too far off with the notion of Earth as a giant computer...

Well, ignoring the plausible theories that we are living in a simulation, I don't that reality is all that different. What's a computer program? A set of rules that interact based on data, at it's root 1s and 0s. How does our reality work? Electrons and Protons mostly (1s and 0s analogue?). A set of rules where if certain conditions are met then a set result occurs.

 

[JRP3]

This source says Model S motor+ inverter are 350lbs https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-the-Tesla-Model-S-motor-weigh
This one says 295 lbs for rear drive unit and inverter Tesla Model S Drive Unit - Complete - Ready to Run, EV West - Electric Vehicle Parts, Components, EVSE Charging Stations, Electric Car Conversion Kits
I multiplied 350 by 4 and round up to 1500.

They are using Model 3 motors, not Model S. Model 3 motor/inverter less than 200lbs.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I am talking about city streets in which nav on auto pilot doesn't work. I have the FSD package and know it's limitations. I am just wondering how Tesla is training the "city streets" Ai if no one can give it feedback via disengagements except a few Tesla employee.

Shadow mode. They still run the network when the human is driving and collect sequences in particular detected sequences. At the autonomy day event, Karpathy mentioned them doing exactly this for left turns(which, obviously, customer cars aren’t actually doing yet).

 

[acoste]

Yep, Model 3 motor core and inverter tech with a custom drive unit/ housing. Model 3 drive unit weighs less than 200 lbs. Maybe 350 per semi drive unit ×4, minus 400 pounds or so per differential removed. Net 1,000 pounds if starting from 2WD. Also drop the weight of a driveshaft.

Then drop the extra steel mass since there isn't an engine trying to pretzel the frame.

1500 lbs is reasonable for 4 motors, gears, inverter, cooling system and charging cables.

The engine is not that heavy compared to the 80000lb weight of the total vehicle so the frame is not going to get lighter, specially that the frame still has to carry the batteries.

Why do you need differential when you have each wheel driven by a separate motor?

Why does it matter the motors not on the same axle with the wheel it drives? All the gears in the gearbox do not have to be co-axil.

It's not a differential, it's a single gear transmission on both wheels. I just call it diff/tranny because I'm talking about weight. These single gears should have similar weights than the diesel's differential.

 

[Tslynk67]

Panasonic Corporation President Kazuhiro Tsuga effectively debunked speculations alleging that the Japanese company’s relationship with American electric car maker Tesla is on the rocks. During a recent Q&A session, Tsuga explained the dynamic between Tesla and Panasonic, as well as his insights about the idea of the electric car maker utilizing another battery supplier for Gigafactory 3.

Tesla battery partner Panasonic debunks rumors about alleged Gigafactory 1 conflicts

So, can we have the 5% back that was stolen from us that day?

Incredible isn't it...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

There's a Canadian version? Is that where the horn goes "Excuse me, may I pass?" instead of "HONK!"?

Yah. Not sure what the differences are but American versions can’t come into Canada.

 

[ruralectric]

1500 lbs is reasonable for 4 motors, gears, inverter, cooling system and charging cables.

The engine is not that heavy compared to the 80000lb weight of the total vehicle so the frame is not going to get lighter, specially that the frame still has to carry the batteries.



It's not a differential, it's a single gear transmission on both wheels. I just call it diff/tranny because I'm talking about weight. These single gears should have similar weights than the diesel's differential.

Someone already asked nicely for this discussion to be continued in another thread. Continuing to do so here is just rude.

 

[JohnDinger]

Dave are you talking GAAP cost number or straight up cash cost? One is about sustainable cash flow with investments in expansion of infrastructure and the other makes WS feel warm and fuzzy and conforms to their traditional valuation models.

What??

I am also curious how Dave came up with the $37,900 number.

But GAAP cost and cash cost do reconcile in the long run. For example, how would you report the "cash cost" of the stamping equipment with a car made 3 years later?

 

[WarpedOne]

The motors are in front and behind the axle and there is a big differential/transmission in between them. Nothing eliminated there.

View attachment 407591

No, there is no differential between them, Tesla just uses (buys) common axle casing that has room for one and fills it with reduction gears.

 

[Nocturnal]

So, can we have the 5% back that was stolen from us that day?

Incredible isn't it...

Sure you can. You just need to hold.

 

[Krugerrand]

Most Americans don't know Tesla is a company that makes electric cars.

Most people under 35 that live in cities on West Coast,Northeast,and Florida know Tesla is a company that makes electric cars. In these areas Tesla also has good awareness among people under 60.

Most new cars are purchased by people over 35.

From Idaho to Georgia and from Minnesota to Louisiana Tesla could use a brand awareness boost.

Tesla doesn't need more demand for $40k Model 3s but it could use more demand for $60k Model 3s in the USA. More demand for long range and performance Model S would also be helpful.

Tesla doesn't need to boost brand awareness from people that live on Youtube or listen to NPR.

Tesla could use a boost to brand awareness among people who live the NFL and participate in NFL Fantasy Leagues. And their high Holy Day is Super Bowl Sunday, watching the Super Bowl on TV is a religious obligation.

Under the age of 25, if they are connected to social media at all, they know all about Elon Musk (and thusly Tesla and SpaceX) and they love him. Even in the Midwest, the South etc...