How many lives has FSD, FSD Beta, and FSD Supervised saved, compared to Waymo?
This is the metric that will determine how effective either system is over time. Neither will be perfect. Caca occurs.
If you define it as a ratio of events / miles driven, I'd guess it's comparable. Do you have any reason to believe it's not?
Most "FSD saved my life events" that I've seen are available in cars today. Happy to be proven wrong though. My BMW has automatic emergency braking, cross traffic detection and a bunch of other safety systems that can prevent a lot of incidents or at the very least reduce their impact.
But you haven't replied to the "driver present" Waymo data. It still only shows ~200 disengagements over 3.7 million miles. I'd say that's pretty good, isn't it?
When a system is operational at a level that beneficially surpasses the injury, death, collision, etc. rates of human drivers, that will be the system that gets a green light. Regardless of "meaningful progress..." as you define it.
Insurance companies already place their bets based upon the statistics. If the rates of liability-related costs are reduced, the taking the risk for that liability will be less than it is for human drivers.
Whatever that cost is will be built into the cost of an FSD subscription, and it will be less than a human driver will pay for the same coverage. It will be as balanced a risk as any other insurance policy will be, based on actuarial data.
Who has the most data?
I don't disagree with any of that. It's just the question of "when" and "who". That's where we are in disagreement (and that's not a problem)
Last edited: