Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

3 is built more towards efficiency and has RWD varieties, so the single efficient smaller motor goes in back.

Is that true? Wikipedia says this about the Model 3 motors:

• AWD: 346 hp (258 kW) total
• 252 hp (188 kW) rear
• 197 hp (147 kW) front

I.e. the rear PM motor is more powerful and is in the back of the 3 - and it's poweful enough to provide a nice performance and efficiency bump as the FWD motor of the S/X.

I do not follow, for the reasons above. Motor guts are the same, but I would guess the driveunit overall is geared/ packaged differently.

See above.

Also, isn't most of the cost and the manufacturing overhead in the motor guts (winding, magnets, cooling, precise low tolerance gaps, high current power electronics, etc.), i.e. isn't it impressive that they are now sharing the same motor between the 3, the Y, the S, the X and the Semi?

 

[brian45011]

Doesn't Tesla have an obligation to purchase a certain number of batteries from Panasonic?

The 18650 Supply Agreement with Panasonic ran through December 2017. EX-10.35A

There is a paucity of information about what replaced that Agreement, and whether it too was structured as a Take or Pay obligation.

 

[bhtooefr]

Model 3 rear motor is rated at 211 kW in Performance models, which I suspect is the "real" power rating. (IIRC, there's three rear drive unit replacement parts - SR/MR with an IGBT inverter, LR RWD with a SiC inverter, and AWD with a SiC inverter and Performance burn-in.)

That's a healthy upgrade over the 193 kW S/X small motor used in the front of all S/X (and it actually may mean that a non-Performance S/X is now nominally FWD-biased, especially considering that Tesla said the non-Performance cars get a performance upgrade from this).

 

[shlokavica22]

As much as I want to believe that along with statements like “Elon playing 4-D chess with the shorts”, I’d prefer it if he kept quiet until people can actually buy something the next day, currently using taxis in the wild or the short squeeze ACTUALLY happens. Revenge is a dish best served cold.

He also doesn’t experience time the way we perceive it. Maybe he’s operating on another plain of existence. Or his simulation instance is operating at a different clock speed. Regardless, his timing is pretty bad too often. In the long run, it does work out and we end up with something really great. So I don’t want to diss on him too bad. I’m extremely grateful for what he has done. But like his brother has said to him, he brings on quite a bit of this pain himself.

LYFT IPO didn't go well (Carl Icahn was smart to unload his share before the IPO). UBER is yet to go public.
The Autonomy event was not a fluke. The bears might try to spin it as much as they want, but the chances are- any big investor will proceed very carefully when considering putting money in TSLA competitor. Moreover- the "horse comparison" seed was planted in potential customer's minds. If until now people were choosing ICE vs EV, now the choice becomes FSD ready vs "horse'.

Then we have context between the lines that was not discussed- if the value of Model 3 + FSD jumps to 300K, what about the Semi + FSD3/4/5? If you are in the transportation business, do you wait for TSLA to decide eating your pie, or you act while you can and join forces? Did TSLA purchase transportation company just because of the short term delivery problems, or there is longer game in play here?

 

[lascavarian]

Microtubials seem to be a curious suspect.

 

[brian45011]

What am I missing?

" In most jurisdictions, we generally self-insure against the risk of product liability claims for vehicle exposure, meaning that any product liability claims will likely have to be paid from company funds, not by insurance." Yuge risk!

 

[Boomer19]

I am such an idiot. Deleveraged yesterday in advance of earnings. Yesterday morning, during that low. And now they do the refresh unveil before earnings? UGH. Market is going to jump today. This is an event I really wanted to be in for!

Being right about the motor changes and the lack of battery pack changes are great, but they don't make up for being unleveraged when the changes get unveiled....

it sucks
not to be a broken record, but just train your thought process to never be fully invested/divested so you have some position to absorb gains, cash to absorb dips

 

[Artful Dodger]

They have Back-EMF both when powered and due the magnets when not.

OT:

We've literally been through this many times. Switched reluctance motors operate by displacing the EM field path to be internal to the composite magnet when they are turned off. That's what allows them to operate at high speed. No back EMF when turned off.

https://www.researchgate.net/public...Speed_500000_rpm_1_kW_Electrical_Drive_System

This is the ONLY way Tesla can achieve a 250+ mph top speed AND a 8.8 sec quarter mile in the new Roadster with a fixed ration gearbox. There is no back EMF effect to limit the top speed of SRPM motors.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Roadster needs a dual motor rear drive setup. Gearing/ packaging is likely different also due to top speed being 50+% higher.

Semi already exists.

 

[Hock1]

I am such an idiot. Deleveraged yesterday in advance of earnings. Yesterday morning, during that low. And now they do the refresh unveil before earnings? UGH. Market is going to jump today. This is an event I really wanted to be in for!

Being right about the motor changes and the lack of battery pack changes are great, but they don't make up for being unleveraged when the changes get unveiled....

Maybe you should consider the concept of long term investing. It would be a shame to, in the end, be right about so many things Tesla, and fail to build wealth because you thought you could outfox the market. JMO.

 

[Mike Smith]

Ford to invest $500 million in electric truck maker Rivian

 

[mongo]

Is that true? Wikipedia says this about the Model 3 motors:

• AWD: 346 hp (258 kW) total
• 252 hp (188 kW) rear
• 197 hp (147 kW) front

I.e. the rear PM motor is more powerful and is in the back of the 3 - and it's poweful enough to provide a nice performance and efficiency bump as the FWD motor of the S/X.



See above.

Also, isn't most of the cost and the manufacturing overhead in the motor guts (winding, magnets, cooling, precise low tolerance gaps, high current power electronics, etc.), i.e. isn't it impressive that they are now sharing the same motor between the 3, the Y, the S, the X and the Semi?

Bad phasing on my part, the 3 PMSR is smaller than the S/X AC motors, and is in the front there. On the 3, it is larger than the front AC motor. In both cases it is the primary motive source due to efficency. So it does fit both roles, but I think there was a wide range of values that would. Big enought to drive a 3, and smaller than what you would use to drive an S/X.

The motor core (staor, rotor, and electronics) is the manufacturing R&D intensive part. The drive unit overall (packaging and gearing) is the part that varies based on application especially since Tesla tends to bias the motor core to the center of the vehicle). The stator is press fit in the drive unit which allows it to be practically drop in.

The core has a power rating that works for different setups:
Main/ RWD on 3
Front on S/X
Main (in quanties of 4) for semi.
(Front on Roadster?)
Which is cool that they could find a power number than worked for all those (with propper gearing).

So yah, very impressive it is so versatile, but want to avoid confusion that it is the same drive unit.

Semi already exists.

I may be off on the back EMF issue (SR can regen using the field change, but that may be a different phenomenon), but I'm positive the Roadster is not going to use a solid rear axle...
Motor core is different from drive unit implemtation.

Edit: What am i thinking? Roadster prototypes already exist...

 

[Pras]

Ford to invest $500 million in electric truck maker Rivian

It is a good indication that Ford doesn’t have a sound EV program. Also good to know that they will create EV awareness.

 

[Fact Checking]

The core has a power rating that works for different setups:
Main/ RWD on 3
Front on S/X
Main (in quanties of 4) for semi.
(Front on Roadster?)
Which is cool that they could find a power number than worked for all those (with propper gearing).

Yes, and that was my entire point - I found it cool too.

Motor core is probably around 80% of the cost and overhead, right? So Tesla managed to share a very significant, high performance motor core over a wide range of products. I don't think any such example of modularity exists for ICE powertrains - they are effectively built to size and not shared between such wildly different vehicle classes.

One of the architectural advantages of EVs.

The 'continuous upgrade' that Tesla has implemented both in the vehicle hardware and software space, over a 7 year time span, is also pretty much unprecedented, to the best of my knowledge.

 

[Fact Checking]

Ford to invest $500 million in electric truck maker Rivian

Cool - so Ford will have to stop attacking EVs as a general class as well - which should indirectly help Tesla as well.

~100 million EVs per year need to be manufactured for a 10 year period just to replace the 1 billion ICE vehicles - there's enough of demand for both Tesla and Rivian.

The flip side is that Tesla will have to execute well in the premium class, to protect their U.S. market share from Rivian. (But for years the main competition should be ICE makes, not other EV makers.)

This also probably removes Ford from the list of mystery ICE manufacturers that could partner with Tesla as per the rumor @KarenRei heard from a reliable source. Pretty much only GM and FCA are left as candidates, and both are plausible candidates as eventual partners to Tesla.

 

[nursebee]

I am not worried about q1, no matter what the numbers say.
Everything the bears try and stir up was put forth by the company in the Q1 outlooks comments in the last update letter.
Excerpts:

While the number of Model 3 vehicles produced should increase sequentially in Q1, deliveries in North America during Q1 will be lower than the prior quarter as we start delivering cars in Europe and China for the first time. As a result of the start of Model 3 expansion into Europe and China, deliveries will be lower than production by about 10,000 units due to vehicle transit times to these markets.

Because of the first scheduled reduction of the federal EV tax credit on January 1, 2019, we likely saw a pull-forward of demand in the US for Model S and Model X into 2018. Both Model S and Model X reached all-time high market shares in the US in the second half of 2018. Model S, for example, accounted for 38% of its segment in the US. Because this high level of demand presumably represented a pull-forward, we are expecting our Model S and Model X deliveries in Q1 2019 to be slightly below Q1 2018.

We expect that the restructuring actions taken in Q1 will reduce our costs by about $400 million annually. Our Q1 financials will reflect a one-time restructuring cost. The gap between production and deliveries in Q1 will create a temporary but predictable dip in our revenues and earnings. As a result, our optimistic target is to achieve a very small GAAP net income in Q1, but that will require us to successfully execute on many fronts including handling logistics and delivery challenges in Europe and China. The higher in-transit inventory will also negatively impact operating cash flows in Q1.

 

[Fact Checking]

Because this high level of demand presumably represented a pull-forward, we are expecting our Model S and Model X deliveries in Q1 2019 to be slightly below Q1 2018.

Well, those Q1'19 S+X deliveries of 12.1k managed to be a lot more than 'slightly' below Q1'18 levels, which were 21.8k deliveries - but the revenue and income effects of that should be reasonably well understood based in the Q1 deliveries report. We saw a run-up to $350 after the Q1'19 delivery report - so the -$90 correction since then should have mostly priced in the bad Q1 results that are a consequence.

What is uncertain (to me) are the shorting shenanigans after today's ER report, and the usual media hyperventilation that might affect retail shareholders.

 

[jerry33]

Motor Trend drove 359 miles and said that they had 11% left.

If you calculate that out they would have been able to drive ~403 miles.

This means I can avoid most Interstate driving--on my most frequent trip--and save about fifty miles to boot.

 

[bhtooefr]

I don't think any such example of modularity exists for ICE powertrains - they are effectively built to size and not shared between such wildly different vehicle classes.

Eh, the Germans actually do it to an extent, especially with hybridization (where a smaller engine taken from the top performance model of a smaller vehicle can work adequately in a large vehicle) and with downsizing and turbocharging.

You can get the same 2.0 4-cylinder engine in a Mini Cooper S and a BMW 730i (although at different states of tune).

You used to be able to get the same 2.0 4-cylinder engine in an Audi A1 and an Audi A8 (although the A8 only had it with a hybrid system), and you can still get that engine in an Audi Q7 (in some markets, even without a hybrid system).

There is also some emphasis on modular engine families, though, especially with BMW - the 1.5 3-cylinder used in a base Mini and the 3.0 6-cylinder used in... basically everything BMW makes (as well as the aforementioned BMW 2.0 3-cylinder) is the same engine family.

That's actually a wider spread than Tesla's usage of one motor (not the whole powertrain) from a smaller luxury sedan (competing with the BMW 3 Series/Audi A4/Mercedes-Benz C-Class) in a larger luxury sedan (competing with 5/A6/E) and SUV (competing with X7 (X5 doesn't have three rows IIRC)/Q7/GLE). (However, the Semi is something else entirely. Roadster... well, the BMW i8 uses the 3-cylinder out of the Mini, but that's so not the same thing.)

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I am such an idiot. Deleveraged yesterday in advance of earnings. Yesterday morning, during that low. And now they do the refresh unveil before earnings? UGH. Market is going to jump today. This is an event I really wanted to be in for!

Being right about the motor changes and the lack of battery pack changes are great, but they don't make up for being unleveraged when the changes get unveiled....

It's down right now, so it's not too late.