I’m guessing Next month if the earnings call goes bad and numbers are low.Your timeframe?
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I’m guessing Next month if the earnings call goes bad and numbers are low.Your timeframe?
Damnit you Ninja'd my entire post. My sheep had maybe wandered into my neighbors and they are city folks easily scared by man eating sheep. Not sure why they are bothersome but there you go, I called them home and came in to finish my post. You had already written it.Keep in mind even a 10% car loan at current prices is a lower monthly payment than when loans were 2% but Teslas prices were much higher.
So the "OMG car loan rates" thing continues to be a red herring. Price cuts have far outrun rate hikes.
She also anticipates them selling 5-10 million cars, which is outside the realm of possibility.
She also antipicates 50% gross margin, which is outside the realm of possibility.
She's got market cap at 1.5 to 4 trillion too. How likely do you think that is in 2025?
Even her model of the original target price years ago Tesla DID hit, the actual model was insanely wrong, she just got lucky, once, picking a target # that hit.
Her financial results of her funds ever since, and how far off any detailed items in her models turn out each year, continually prove this was a single lucky guess, not any actual competence at financial modeling.
The fact people still view her as a guru is insane.... For all the mocking Michael Burry gets here at least the one time HE was right also had accurate financial modeling to get there instead of a lucky guess.
That's her in 2017-- telling us how her 2020 price is based on Tesla having a significant share of the robotaxi market.
Burry has been right multiple times and across many industries and for the reasons he modeled.Keep in mind even a 10% car loan at current prices is a lower monthly payment than when loans were 2% but Teslas prices were much higher.
So the "OMG car loan rates" thing continues to be a red herring. Price cuts have far outrun rate hikes.
She also anticipates them selling 5-10 million cars, which is outside the realm of possibility.
She also antipicates 50% gross margin, which is outside the realm of possibility.
She's got market cap at 1.5 to 4 trillion too. How likely do you think that is in 2025?
Even her model of the original target price years ago Tesla DID hit, the actual model was insanely wrong, she just got lucky, once, picking a target # that hit.
Her financial results of her funds ever since, and how far off any detailed items in her models turn out each year, continually prove this was a single lucky guess, not any actual competence at financial modeling.
The fact people still view her as a guru is insane.... For all the mocking Michael Burry gets here at least the one time HE was right also had accurate financial modeling to get there instead of a lucky guess.
That's her in 2017-- telling us how her 2020 price is based on Tesla having a significant share of the robotaxi market.
Again. You and others said the same thing the first time around when she had a ‘ridiculous’ valuation. And yet - it happened. As it happened when everyone was laughing and pointing fingers at Andrea James, calling for bankruptcy. It’s not relevant how close ‘they’ got to being right. They were serially dead wrong in the end.
I’ve no idea if Cathy is correct again or not. But she’s already been more correct than the dozens of vocal analysts who shouted her down before TSLA got to $6,000 (pre splits). Believe Jonas, Black, Gerber, et al at your own risk. Explain it all away as logically as you want and to your heart’s content. I’ll just continue to stand on the other side of the fence and wait patiently another decade.
People are still probably waiting for rates to go down, since it's predicted they will fairly soon. They are probably also waiting for the economy to look better too. Are overall new vehicle sales down for ICE and EV?Keep in mind even a 10% car loan at current prices is a lower monthly payment than when loans were 2% but Teslas prices were much higher.
So the "OMG car loan rates" thing continues to be a red herring. Price cuts have far outrun rate hikes.
She also anticipates them selling 5-10 million cars, which is outside the realm of possibility.
She also antipicates 50% gross margin, which is outside the realm of possibility.
She's got market cap at 1.5 to 4 trillion too. How likely do you think that is in 2025?
Even her model of the original target price years ago Tesla DID hit, the actual model was insanely wrong, she just got lucky, once, picking a target # that hit.
Her financial results of her funds ever since, and how far off any detailed items in her models turn out each year, continually prove this was a single lucky guess, not any actual competence at financial modeling.
The fact people still view her as a guru is insane.... For all the mocking Michael Burry gets here at least the one time HE was right also had accurate financial modeling to get there instead of a lucky guess.
That's her in 2017-- telling us how her 2020 price is based on Tesla having a significant share of the robotaxi market.
It's a selfish position but my target is buy 1,000 shares if price approaches $100/share. High interest rates killing car loans. Small inexpensive Tesla 3 years away in volume.
As a recent (2019) but long term investor I'm looking for major appreciation towards decade's end. Why so long? Because I'm a FSD pessimist. Optimistic on Optimus $$$ revenue but that's not starting any year soon; huge by decade's end. First Optibots will be factory non-union employees.
That's like eternity from now!!! It could hit both 160 and 180 twice by earnings. Still... it's a fun bet see who wins.I’m guessing Next month if the earnings call goes bad and numbers are low.
Keep in mind even a 10% car loan at current prices is a lower monthly payment than when loans were 2% but Teslas prices were much higher.
So the "OMG car loan rates" thing continues to be a red herring. Price cuts have far outrun rate hikes.
Q - how does the "free" market re-align after the Paris Climate Accord ends in 2024?...after signed into fruition around 11/2015?
Could driving towards sustainable solutions become a country-by-country thing? Maybe some more aggressive than the others?
e.g. Here's a Purdue study on macroeconomics impacts, citing inflation, back in 2021 due to the Paris Climate Accord.
U.S. Climate Policy Revisited: Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of the Paris Agreement
With the U.S. re-entering the Paris Agreement on Climate, Purdue researchers consider the economic consequences for the US economy.ag.purdue.edu
People are still probably waiting for rates to go down, since it's predicted they will fairly soon. They are probably also waiting for the economy to look better too. Are overall new vehicle sales down for ICE and EV?
Many young people live in urban areas with multi family housing and no good way to charge can't help. I agree with Knightshade that the price cuts have easily offset finance costs. I think that there is just only so much market for luxury cars and a tesla is still a luxury car. Also it is surprising that Tesla Insurance is not making profit. Repair costs have soared and as the pool of drivers expanded the numbers are not looking better. How long will they continue to subsidize the insurance division?People are still probably waiting for rates to go down, since it's predicted they will fairly soon. They are probably also waiting for the economy to look better too. Are overall new vehicle sales down for ICE and EV?
I feel your need. I love my Lightning but a F350 dually replacement it is not. Buy a good used one? Wait 2 years and the pricing and capabilities will increase.On the Loyal Shareholder CT incentive:
One general and one specific question/comment.
First, what does “receive it early” mean? I am in a time crunch at present and if I don’t receive it before the end of April it doesn’t make sense - or logistical reason - to want it before summer’s end….and the Founder version’s premium had d*mned well better have disappeared by then or Tesla is in real trouble.
Second, I already bought two more Teslas in December, and right now I really need a replacement F-350 dually. Like - right away. Which a Cybertruck is NOT, the more is the shameful pity. Not even close. Hauling my excavator the 200 miles over the Alaska Range into Fairbanks should not have to take me 2+ days.
So although I am really aching to have a CT, it’s either *now*, or wait yet ~one more year.
You like bringing this up, but the C19 pricings were higher than the cars used to be.
10% interest instead of 2% cuts buying power by 18% for the same payment on a 60 month loan.
Rather than a $40k loan, a person would only get $33k.
$30k becomes $25k.
Prices haven't dropped that much since 2019 (yes, ignoring inflation)
While reading the concerns of many who repeatedly view Tesla's future with a bias leaning toward the negative, a quote came to mind from the movie, 2010: The Year We Make Contact.
HAL-9000: What is going to happen, Dave?Dave Bowman: Something wonderful.HAL-9000: I'm afraid.Dave Bowman: Don't be. We'll be together.HAL-9000: Where will we be?Dave Bowman: Where I am now.
When all things are considered (which many people don't do), the inevitable growth from the convergence of these several disruptive technologies will be astounding, and they will be adopted, regardless of those attempting to thwart it.
Things like the Paris Accord ending may give some nations the opportunity to move quicker and set an example that the transition to renewable energy is a slam dunk because it costs less on all levels, and dismantles the shackles the current energy regime has placed upon the world's population who have become dependent upon their products.
Once these examples of success and prosperity become more evident the tide will carry the transition faster and to greater heights. That is the very nature of why an S-curve repeats for every such disruption through history. A clever oil company could as easily invest their insane profits into battery, solar, and wind technologies at a faster pace, instead of spending it on FUD.
The more the powers try to hold on to their positions based in the old technology, the longer it may take for their influence to falter. Those nations where that leverage is greatest will lag in the race, until enough of their population demand that they catch up with the boons other nations are enjoying. I'm pretty sure the US could be one of those lagging, as we have the most experienced spin-doctors and concentration of fossil energy leverage over government and media. Though there is nothing that says it has to be that way. Maybe by educating folks Tesla will further hasten the transition, both in the US and elsewhere.
Eventually, something wonderful is going to happen as the trajectory of the curve turns upward. Those riding the TSLA train will have front row seats in the first-class car.
HODL
I agree, BUT, I also feel this "something wonderful" is going to happen quite a bit later now than most of us expected it would. Meaning robotaxis of course.
I honestly do expect Optimus to start contributing substantially to revenues before robotaxi's do, but still not for a few years.