Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
So you think Deliveries will decrease vs 2023 Q4? BTW 2.1M is a 17% increase in volume, not 0%. Potter is a shark, just like the rest of them.

It's very early to try and predict deliveries for 2024, however if we say the gross range is between 0% and 50% growth over 2023, thats

2023 Deliveries : 1,808,581
2024 @ 0% Growth : 1,808,581
2024 @ 50% Growth: 2,712,871

I think we can agree 0% and 50% growth are very unlikely and given Tesla said the growth would be lower this year on the CC, however some people read this as no growth or single figures. In 2022 Tesla deliveries grew 40% vs 2021 and 2023 grew 38% over 2022, so I would guess the range would be between 20%-30% which means

2024 @ 20% : 2,170,297
2024 @ 30% : 2,351,155

These numbers fit with the cadence of the last few years and take into account the lower growth prediction from the conference call. My conservative estimate is around 2.25 million.
 
It's very early to try and predict deliveries for 2024, however if we say the gross range is between 0% and 50% growth over 2023, thats

2023 Deliveries : 1,808,581
2024 @ 0% Growth : 1,808,581
2024 @ 50% Growth: 2,712,871

I think we can agree 0% and 50% growth are very unlikely and given Tesla said the growth would be lower this year on the CC, however some people read this as no growth or single figures. In 2022 Tesla deliveries grew 40% vs 2021 and 2023 grew 38% over 2022, so I would guess the range would be between 20%-30% which means

2024 @ 20% : 2,170,297
2024 @ 30% : 2,351,155

These numbers fit with the cadence of the last few years and take into account the lower growth prediction from the conference call. My conservative estimate is around 2.25 million.

+1 for the maths. Don't let @Mengy see this... :p

Separately, I've calcuated Tesla's likely max. prod. capacity for 2024 at ~2.5M cars. How many they actually make will depend upon the least luckiest process, as Elon frequently reminds us....

Lower growth percentage than 2023 implies ~2.4M prod. But Tesla's CFO did say that "may happen" not "will happen" so again we'er down to events.

Cheers!
 
How can Tesla deliveries possibly be flat in 2024? Are people seriously thinking that cybertruck ramp PLUS entry into new markets in South America (and who knows where else) plus starting to market properly to Japan...will result in no more sales?
@unk45 probably has his Chilean contacts sourcing a flock of Teslas as we speak. @GhostSkater avidly planning Chile>Brazil road trip(s), not realising that it will end up as a 10 mile convoy. Slightly compromised by the AC charging required in one charging desert.

Supply or Demand constrained?

Supply


M3 Refresh ramp should increase production capacity. Anything similar for Model Y (Juniper) will have short downtime plus faster production afterwards.

If I recall correctly, Elon said less than 37% growth and someone on the last call said run-rate of 2 million now.

1.8 million production goes to
10% > ~2 million
20% > ~2.16 million
30% > ~2.34 million


Demand

+ M3 Refresh/Highland
+ M3 Performance/Ludicrous/Plaid
+ MY Juniper
+ more countries, fulfilling demand in underserved ones
+ costs lowering by around 10% per year according to many - out-competing ICE alternatives, larger Total Addressable market - especially if word of mouth or advertising educates on fuel savings.
+ greater movement to tax ICE or encourage EVs in more markets

- competition (BYD seem to have big plans but only MG4 seems to have done well in Europe, will watch Australian market)
- economy/China/Red Sea etc - but could be +ve
 
BYD massively down in January compared to December - maybe an attempt at headline grabbing by reducing price of BYD's 420 models/variants. Geely are bigger than BYD in January, but that probably includes all power types - reporting is confused.

Tesla controls pricing in China to a large degree (within their segments).
To be honest, it seems seasonal: look at the whole chart and how it's growing from Jan to Dic but then restarts lower the next year on a new plateau. I don't know why it's like that, but it's growing YOY.
1707224060449.png
 
To be honest, it seems seasonal: look at the whole chart and how it's growing from Jan to Dic but then restarts lower the next year on a new plateau. I don't know why it's like that, but it's growing YOY.
View attachment 1015822

China/BYD - I've heard that January is normally slow due to holidays, going back to villages/relatives, so perhaps not surprising. Strange that Geely have been reported to have grown in January vs December. Perhaps THEY are channel-stuffing?

As Tesla is direct with little physical inventory kept, it's more transparent. Others can buffer to a huge extent.

Also, Chinese/Hong Kong stock markets for Chinese car makers might start having some kind of effect on (especially) the smaller Chinese players. If this is true, there may be fewer competitors to Tesla in China.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: wipster
It's really simple to understand: Wall St. was positioned for the Economy to get worse. So now the Government and especially the Federal Reserve Bank will make that happen (or pretend its happening) until such time that Wall St. has repositioned itself.

TL;dr Wall St pulls the strings in the Gov't and OWNS the Federal Reserve Bank.
"wall street" does NOT OWN the "Federal Reserve Bank"
There are twelve Federal Reserve Banks, each owned by Member Banks it it's district.
The New York Federal Reserve Bank differs from all others because it execrates the direction of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Check out "about the Fed" in this link:

All this is quite important to us as shareholders of TSLA in large part because clear understanding of the factual processes, especially of the FOMC, help to optimize instant of that nearly $30 billion cash.
It's even more important to stop the political debates and concentrate on facts. In the case of the FED, for the most part they have, since their inception done a generally excellent job of managing the money supply while trying vinyl to avoid political morass. That nearly every President has complained about them probably shows how well they actually have done. Even the makeup of the Board of Governors does tend to minimize immediate political control.
Only Franklin Roosevelt was President long enough to bring about major alterations, and he, oddly enough, was fairly restrained. Possibly he might have been distracted by a war(s)?/s

So ,please! Rail about the SEC, the DTC, the Madoff Rule and exchanges, especially Market Makers or even custodians. Just don't think about equating the Federal Reserve System with the rampant corrupt motives behind the US securities world. They are entirely different worlds.

That said, post 2008 things did change, from GM becoming Government Motors to mass abandonment of the vestiges of Glass Stegall and McFadden Acts (except for the Federal Reserve Banks part) that merged most major brokerage firms with banks and converted most of the remaining ones into Bank Holding Companies.

All of this is very relevant to Tesla because the consequences began just as Tesla was entering the world fo mass production. Because of earlier Musk foray into financial services with X.com and successors, regulation, specifically the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, was something he knew well and understood, although he rarely even talked about that.

The conservatism of Tesla finances dates back to those events and the continuing challenges for both SpaceX and Tesla. Those of who argue for more aggressive risk-taking are ones who never knew the acute existential threats of both 2008 and the succeeding crises.

Now we're facing different issues, but the risks remain.
 
Having a conversation through text with Tesla regarding transferring my FSD and Free unlimited supercharging.

I have a 2017 MS with the above, and I am thinking of getting a M3 or MY or another MS....if I can transfer the above.

I also own a 2020 Jeep Wrangler....yesterday I got a letter asking me if I would like to bring it in and have the Nav database updated for $179

I say all that to say ...after owning a Tesla and other makes through the years.... I can't imagine a universe where I would even consider anything other than a Tesla.

p.s. the nav system on the Jeep is laughably bad....so bad I can't see how anyone uses it.

To tie this to investing...ask yourself this....how many of the 1.8 million Teslas sold last year result in new lifelong customers who will NEVER buy another brand.

I bet a large percentage.
 
"wall street" does NOT OWN the "Federal Reserve Bank"
There are twelve Federal Reserve Banks, each owned by Member Banks it it's district.

We've been around the block on this on several occasions. Suffice to say I find your explanations unconvincing, as the banks chain of ownship always leads back to the same small group, the same society which also owns Wall St. investment banks.

Having worked inside the system for much of your career, please do explain why the FED is making irrational interest rate decisions, harming the economy. Meanwhile they pretend the remaining inflation (housing) is a problem they can solve, when if fact they are themselves causing this inflation with interest rate hikes? Inexplicable? No, it's 'splicable (just unseemly).

Routinely, Chairman Powell has jaw-boned down the stock market in seeming response to the needs of hedge funds, who eagerly pounce on his hand-wringing (again, not supported by data). Twice is coincidence, three times is trend. There was literally a press conference when the SP started to go up during his remarks, a media article appeared, and he inexplicabley change gears to overwhelmingly negative for the rest of his talk. You can only say that doesn't happen if you don't look at it happening right in front of your eyes.

All are rhetorical questions, as there is no public information to provide definative evidence of this control. Such restrictions CAN NOT exist in a democracy without undue influence by powerful factions. Just because something is unseen, or unexplained, doesn't mean that its not true.

For example: explain gravity (I'll weight). ;)
 
Last edited:
On Sep 12, 2020, I wrote:



Still applies 4 years later. No changes. ;)

Cheers to the Longs!

I have sized my investment appropriately, and will continue to HODL, knowing full well where this is going in 2 years. My investment horizon is still 7 years.

If TSLA volatility 'ruins your day', you have sized your investment improperly.

Question: if one only holds, how does one rightly size their investment if said investment is now 15x larger (or more)?

I can't imagine anyone seeing 7x their original investment evaporate (or 10x+ from 400 to 100) and not having some opportunity cost thoughts enter their mind.

Might AD actually be advocating for *clutches pearls* selling?
 
How could we get any better deal than that? Haha, well Elon has to pay the company $23.33 per share to execute his options (that's cash back to us).
That's not so much cash back to Tesla as it is a really bad stock offering.
Stock offering: $180 a share (as of nowish)
Elon exercising: $23.33 a share
Opportunity cost: $156.67 a share

304M shares on 2,860M to 3,164M (2023 numbers).
$7.1B paid
Share value dilution of 9% based on cash gain vs share increase
SP 180 -> 165
SP 400 -> 364
SP 800 -> 725
 
  • Informative
Reactions: wipster
"wall street" does NOT OWN the "Federal Reserve Bank"
There are twelve Federal Reserve Banks, each owned by Member Banks it it's district.
The New York Federal Reserve Bank differs from all others because it execrates the direction of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Check out "about the Fed" in this link:

All this is quite important to us as shareholders of TSLA in large part because clear understanding of the factual processes, especially of the FOMC, help to optimize instant of that nearly $30 billion cash.
It's even more important to stop the political debates and concentrate on facts. In the case of the FED, for the most part they have, since their inception done a generally excellent job of managing the money supply while trying vinyl to avoid political morass. That nearly every President has complained about them probably shows how well they actually have done. Even the makeup of the Board of Governors does tend to minimize immediate political control.
Only Franklin Roosevelt was President long enough to bring about major alterations, and he, oddly enough, was fairly restrained. Possibly he might have been distracted by a war(s)?/s

So ,please! Rail about the SEC, the DTC, the Madoff Rule and exchanges, especially Market Makers or even custodians. Just don't think about equating the Federal Reserve System with the rampant corrupt motives behind the US securities world. They are entirely different worlds.

That said, post 2008 things did change, from GM becoming Government Motors to mass abandonment of the vestiges of Glass Stegall and McFadden Acts (except for the Federal Reserve Banks part) that merged most major brokerage firms with banks and converted most of the remaining ones into Bank Holding Companies.

All of this is very relevant to Tesla because the consequences began just as Tesla was entering the world fo mass production. Because of earlier Musk foray into financial services with X.com and successors, regulation, specifically the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, was something he knew well and understood, although he rarely even talked about that.

The conservatism of Tesla finances dates back to those events and the continuing challenges for both SpaceX and Tesla. Those of who argue for more aggressive risk-taking are ones who never knew the acute existential threats of both 2008 and the succeeding crises.

Now we're facing different issues, but the risks remain.

I suspect that was a typo, and if so, a funny one:

execrates (third person present)
  1. feel or express great loathing for:
    "they were execrated as dangerous and corrupt"
 
Last edited:
Question: if one only holds, how does one rightly size their investment if said investment is now 15x larger (or more)?

I can't imagine anyone seeing 7x their original investment evaporate (or 10x+ from 400 to 100) and not having some opportunity cost thoughts enter their mind.

Might AD actually be advocating for *clutches pearls* selling?
My TSLA self balances with each drop!

Seriously though, at this moment I am roughly 30% TSLA with remaining in various SP500 products. I hope this flips in the next 5 years but if not, I am OK just helping a company that helps Mother Earth
 
How can Tesla deliveries possibly be flat in 2024? Are people seriously thinking that cybertruck ramp PLUS entry into new markets in South America (and who knows where else) plus starting to market properly to Japan...will result in no more sales?
Cybertruck will be what? ~60k units *maybe* in 2024 ? rounding error imho for total deliveries

South America? *check notes* ... the continent with ZERO superchargers...
 
Question: if one only holds, how does one rightly size their investment if said investment is now 15x larger (or more)?

I can't imagine anyone seeing 7x their original investment evaporate (or 10x+ from 400 to 100) and not having some opportunity cost thoughts enter their mind.

Might AD actually be advocating for *clutches pearls* selling?

Haha, no. I explained this here in detail years ago. My investment was intended for an 8-10 yr horizon based on my values, priorities, and assessment of the company (esp. mgmt). At today's price, I'm still far ahead of where I expected to be 6 yr ago. Ron Baron doesn't look at macros, or the economy, he only looks at the company. If it's operating well, he holds.

If I had extra money to invest, where would I put it? If I sold, where would I move the money? When do I need that money? It's always the same: 'Volatility is not risk', 'have realistic goals', and 'be honest with yourself'.

So best advice I can offer to folks who are feeling 'squirmy' due to this prolonged and pre-meditated FUD campaign is "you are the short's target. they need to buy your shares because they already sold them, and the waiter is preparing their bill." Emotion is your Enemy; Time is your friend (so long as you avoid margin) and you don't gamble money you need for other things.

Cheers!

P.S. Don't put yourself in a position where the pirates can forcibly separate you from your shares. Fun story: The day I opened my postion, I talked to the trading desk at my broker. As he set up my purcahse order, he asked "do you want to place a 'stop-loss' order?" Luckily, I was smart enough to say "No!" That buy order executed at $17 per share! Then a year later, in May 2019 (during the $EC round 2) the SP dropped to $12 so I would have been stopped out, and I would have missed out on this climb to $180. I am not going to miss out on the climb to $1,800
 
Last edited: