Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SmokyPeat]

Up 4.19% today. Just missed. 200, here we come.

 

[GhostSkater]

Clearly propaganda.

It's working

 

[Artful Dodger]

What’s more nuts is how ants now think what they say or do makes any difference. Ants used to be aware of this.

Antman comes to grip with the larger universe...

 

[Artful Dodger]

My parents get theirs on Thursday.

How do they like it? Have they had a Tesla before?

Ask again on Freitag.

 

[lafrisbee]

I think it's generally understood things announced several years ahead of production and attempting to do based on where technical progress is anticipated to be at the release date are projections and not promises (as many people love to say).

The nature of fully refundable deposits is that if what was anticipated when announced is not what was could ultimately be delivered, you aren't obligated to buy when they disclose what the final product is. They did update you before you had to commit to purchase... to say they "withheld truth" because you didn't get the news on your schedule seems a bit of a stretch...

The returnable deposit has nothing to do with Elon's consistent decision to tell the public that his team was working and improving the vehicle when he was asked about it. He made a conscious decision to withhold the true "progress" regarding the failure to meet the continuously stated goals.
HAHA, I I just thought of one action Tesla took which predicated the failures of Tesla. Remember when they took down the "level" that those that reserved a vehicle had made. Yeah, they knew then, but were not forthcoming with the information? Smoove move. Milton.

 

[Krugerrand]

because they unveiled a diagram of a Tesla killler and WS went wild

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750213943573012671

Yes, I noted that in my first post on the subject. I thought (it seems erroneously) that something else I missed/couldn’t find was the *real* reason for the huge bump in SP and thus valuation.

So, you couldn’t find anything worth a pile of dirty drawers either, huh?

 

[jerry33]

Interesting, seems like Chinese Tesla fans noted that the Cybertruck´s name in Chinese does not include the word truck and take it as a hint it might come to China after all..

I wonder why do they show it around in China but not in Europe if the regulatory environment is similar (not easy)?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752012058726453601

My guess would be that it will be much faster to implement in China than in Europe (assumes local manufacturing). Also politically exporting the CT to China helps balance of payments (assumes they will not be made in China).

 

[jerry33]

They do seem to use a very high quality paper/envelope for the recall notices than what is necessary. (At least it seems high quality to me, and I would think it is more expensive than necessary.)

But I don't think that can account for multiple hundreds of dollars per vehicle.

Might be the cost on the government side.

 

[Krugerrand]

So nobody mentioned yet that we’re up more than 4%?

Shhhhhhhh ‍

Don’t say anything until we’re up 100%, pls and tx.

 

[elasalle]

My guess would be that it will be much faster to implement in China than in Europe (assumes local manufacturing). Also politically exporting the CT to China helps balance of payments (assumes they will not be made in China).

Like S/X CT will be shipped from US if at all
With just the $100 deposits (hoping to lock in FSD rates) , I guess there are a large number of CT orders from China(x times EU orders ...)
CT is also a segment by it's self, no other Chinese competition has something like it ... I think there are gonna be wedding processions in CT in China if it gets approved

China can't get enough of Tesla, Elon, Maye, Hanz ....CT ....

 

[joh01652]

What is Lucid doing to get a 26% SP bump today? All I see is a shrouded outline of a new vehicle Lucid won’t make for ‘a few years’. (If they’re still around)

Please remember to use the /s so newbies here who don't know you know you're being sarcastic.

That being said, for the newbies, these continually perpetuating manufactured bubbles allow for a lot more stealing/fleecing to occur before the bubble finally pops; the longer these bubbles continue, the better chance normal people have of going bankrupt, losing their homes, their savings, jobs, kids' college funds, etc, and those of us know how the sausage is made can retire early. This is great fun and is why the stock market is the greatest game show on Earth.

 

[Krugerrand]

Please remember to use the /s so newbies here who don't know you know you're being sarcastic.

You’re not a newbie and if you feel you are, fyi, the cat doesn’t care about newbies. /s just this one time for the newbies I don’t care about.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I saw a Cadillac Lyric for the first time about an hour ago: fuuuugleeeee...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think he now has an addiction.

He's one of us now!

 

[H Mak]

Things can change very quickly in Tesla World, and the world generally, so who knows what might happen in 2024

If Tesla could add $1,000 to the ASP, and reduce average COGS by $1,000 then combined, based on sales of 2m cars, that would add $4bn to net income.
Net income in 2023 was $11bn. So there is your growth in earnings, without the need for a big increase in deliveries.

I'm not saying those two things will happen, just demonstrating how relatively small changes can alter the earnings outlook. Volume growth is not the sole source of earnings growth.

 

[Mengy]

Things can change very quickly in Tesla World, and the world generally, so who knows what might happen in 2024

If Tesla could add $1,000 to the ASP, and reduce average COGS by $1,000 then combined, based on sales of 2m cars, that would add $4bn to net income.
Net income in 2023 was $11bn. So there is your growth in earnings, without the need for a big increase in deliveries.

I'm not saying those two things will happen, just demonstrating how relatively small changes can alter the earnings outlook. Volume growth is not the sole source of earnings growth.

Yep, that is one way we could increase earnings quite nicely with lower than usual production growth. It would be great if that's how it plays out for this year.

 

[cliff harris]

Things can change very quickly in Tesla World, and the world generally, so who knows what might happen in 2024

If Tesla could add $1,000 to the ASP, and reduce average COGS by $1,000 then combined, based on sales of 2m cars, that would add $4bn to net income.
Net income in 2023 was $11bn. So there is your growth in earnings, without the need for a big increase in deliveries.

I'm not saying those two things will happen, just demonstrating how relatively small changes can alter the earnings outlook. Volume growth is not the sole source of earnings growth.

Another way to look at this:
Tesla would need to earn an extra $2,000 per car. Thats per car sold so... over the lifetime of the car right?
Combine premium connectivity, with supercharging profits, with a higher take up of FSD... thats trivially easy to do.
I sold my model S after 7 years which had lifetime free supercharging. That car no doubt still exists, and suddenly its earning supercharging revenue for the first time, for Tesla. I also had lifetime premium connectivity which again,.. is suddenly generating income for Tesla. Its out of warranty now, and I expect the new owner will do the CCS upgrade for it (UK model), so yet more income for Tesla. Also AFAIK my autopilot wont transfer to the new owner, so I guess there is an opportunity for yet more revenue for Tesla.

Wall st is oblivious to all this. They still think cars are one-and-done sales. Nobody has made a decent business from car software subscription fees yet.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No one say anything about the AH movement please

 

[MP3Mike]

That car no doubt still exists, and suddenly its earning supercharging revenue for the first time, for Tesla.

Or maybe not. I haven't used any Superchargers in over two years. I have gotten by on home, and destination, charging. I'm sure there are lots of people in a similar situation. (And of course, some that have no home charging and live completely on Superchargers.)

 

[kabin]

Things can change very quickly in Tesla World, and the world generally, so who knows what might happen in 2024

If Tesla could add $1,000 to the ASP, and reduce average COGS by $1,000 then combined, based on sales of 2m cars, that would add $4bn to net income.
Net income in 2023 was $11bn. So there is your growth in earnings, without the need for a big increase in deliveries.

I'm not saying those two things will happen, just demonstrating how relatively small changes can alter the earnings outlook. Volume growth is not the sole source of earnings growth.

Sounds good but with mature designs most of the cost has been wrung out and production ramped up. Tesla is talking about cost savings on the order of pennies.