Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

If range extender is a physically attached factory option you'd no longer qualify for the tax credit as those count toward the cap- as things like wheels and paint do now.

SOFTWARE options (or post-delivery add ons) do not.

I'd be shocked if the range extender was attached at the factory. It seems to me that the whole reason they did the range extender was to keep the price/cost down for the base models and still qualify for the tax credit.

Most won't need the range extender, but at least Tesla can offer it and say they have a truck with a longer range than Rivian.

 

[hobbes]

Prediction...

These early models will print money hand over fist for them for around 6 months or however long the early adopters support. Then they drop prices 20% overnight and do exactly what they've done for every other model, rinse and repeat.

They would be foolish not to do this as they have complete control over transfer price. If just 10% convert they have all of 2024 sold out at probably 40% margin. The long range will sell 2X that of the beast given tax credit. Most of these will have "cheap" FSD which is pure profit, so maybe we hit 50% gross margin.

I think the first RWD will roll off the line Dec 2025.

Don´t forget the vehicles are more expensive to produce at a low production rate in the beginning, too, which cancels (at least partly) the higher price they can take from early adopters.

 

[mongo]

That is just V4 posts. The actual chargers are still the same old V3 ones.

Sure, but yhose V3 cabinets charge Semi and have a 1000 VDC input bus. Either they are all already 2kV vompsyoand SW locked, or it's a build time option.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'd be shocked if the range extender was attached at the factory. It seems to me that the whole reason they did the range extender was to keep the price/cost down for the base models and still qualify for the tax credit.

Most won't need the range extender, but at least Tesla can offer it and say they have a truck with a longer range than Rivian.

It says that you need to have it installed at a Service Center. So that would mean not factory, but not self removed (likely due to the HV connection).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Surprised the Cyberbeast's 845 HP is lower HP the Plaid X & S (1,020 HP).

Lol, software... Semi has up to 1,500 hp w. the same 3 carbon-wrapped motors.

BTW, does that wimpy 'lil plaid have over 10,000 lbft of torque at the wheels?!

OOFDAH!

 

[Todd Burch]

I was expecting a flood of reviews a la Motor Trend and Youtube videos a la Marques Brownlee right after the event, yet I see nothing. Kinda odd.

 

[mongo]

Closing the loop on this one...
The three demonstrations:
Bullet resistant panels
Tractor pull
911 Drag race

 

[mongo]

I was expecting a flood of reviews a la Motor Trend and Youtube videos a la Marques Brownlee right after the event, yet I see nothing. Kinda odd.

Marques posted that he is editing his footage, must have gotten new stuff today.

 

[powertoold]

Based on the claim it can charge up to 136 miles in 15 minutes at 250 kW, I am calculating:

460 Wh / mile (414)

or

2.176 miles / kWH efficiency (2.4)


Based on this, the 340 mile range Cybertruck has a ~ 156 kWh (140) battery pack. The 250 range, presumably LFP, would require a 115 kWh (103) battery pack.

Edit: This didn't assume heat losses during charging. If we assume a 10% loss to heat, the number change to what is in the parentheses.

It says this on the Tesla order page:

Cybertruck All-Wheel Drive consumption rating = 42.9 kWh/100mi

340 / 100 * 42.9 = 145.86, with some headroom would make it around 150kWh

 

[Usain]

I'm kind of glad the stock is going down a bit. I buy every two weeks no matter what and tomorrow is the day.

The thing that really matters is FSD V12. I guarantee ~100% that Robotaxi FSD can be achieved with Tesla's current technology. We don't know exactly when it will get that good, but it will. And the only company with enough data to solve this today is Tesla.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'm kind of glad the stock is going down a bit. I buy every two weeks no matter what and tomorrow is the day.

The thing that really matters is FSD V12. I guarantee ~100% that Robotaxi FSD can be achieved with Tesla's current technology. We don't know exactly when it will get that good, but it will. And the only company with enough data to solve this today is Tesla.

Only "two weeks" right?

 

[traxila]

Is this for everyone or just Cybertruck reservation holders?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Is this for everyone or just Cybertruck reservation holders?

View attachment 995246

I got it an hour ago. Not sure.

 

[powertoold]

It says this on the Tesla order page:

Cybertruck All-Wheel Drive consumption rating = 42.9 kWh/100mi

340 / 100 * 42.9 = 145.86, with some headroom would make it around 150kWh

R1T is rated around 48kWh/100mi with a drag coefficient of 0.3: Fuel Economy of the 2022 Rivian R1T

Whereas the CT has a higher drag at 0.335 and has better wh/mi.

Edit: my mistake, the CT is more efficient than the R1T (43kwh vs 48kwh per 100mi, 43kwh for CT)

 

[uscbucsfan]

What's odd is that the Cybertruck seems to be as inefficient as the Rivian R1T:

R1T is rated around 48kWh/100mi with a drag coefficient of 0.3: Fuel Economy of the 2022 Rivian R1T

Whereas the CT has a higher drag at 0.335 and also worse efficiency as a result

Both heavy as *sugar*?

 

[wipster]

You can always tell the bitter people who sold near the bottom. Move on, bud.

I agree with Elon, they should bring in a major league pitcher, perhaps from the world series winner the Texas Rangers, with a 100 mph fastball to show the strength of the window!

 

[mongo]

Is this for everyone or just Cybertruck reservation holders?

View attachment 995246

*Active Cybertruck reservations placed before November 30, 2023, qualify for $1,000 off any new Model S, Model 3, Model X or Model Y ordered by December 31, 2023. Used vehicles are not eligible. Offer is limited to one per customer account, is nontransferable and may be combined with other offers. Terms are subject to change without notice.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

You lose 1/3 of the bed and lose payload/towing capacity.

I’m not sure you would lose towing capacity.

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla gave the answer for the All-Wheel Drive version as 429 Wh/mile. This information is on the website, buried in the See Details explanation of estimated gas savings.

Probably the rear wheel drive version is more efficient, and Cyberbeast is probably about 429*340/320 = 456 Wh/mi.

That's almost 1/2 kWh/mi. Am I alone to have thought Tesla would do better here?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So with 250kw charging I guess the CT uses a 400V architecture? I thought there was an earlier indication it would be 800V?

M

It was right on the presentation.

48 volt
800 volt.

But if charging on a V2 or V3 it would have to use 400 volts.