JupiterMan
Active Member
Shanghai production volume has consistently been sandbaged over many quarters.
for a longtime it was >750k capacity, then recently jumped to >950k
That's the only one I can think of, but it has happened.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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for a longtime it was >750k capacity, then recently jumped to >950k
That's the only one I can think of, but it has happened.
Who said it would be year one?
That's like saying Model 3/Y isn't cleaning up simply because they only sold 100,000 units year 1:
jhm
Well-Known Member
So how does GM look as a short target?
It's easy to view this "return of capital" as a desperate attempt to extract cash before insolvency sets in. From our perspective, any automaker that cannot make the transition to profitable EV making will not be a going concern for long. However, many financiers and investors may still lack the foresight to see this clearly. So there remains an open window for loading up on more debt.
Additionally, there is a history of the US government bailing out GM whenever it gets into trouble. Auto sector jobs are politically sensitive. So it is plausible that lenders assume that the government will backstop any potential losses. This too keeps the debt window open. Private greed and socialized risk.
What about timing? How quickly does the market discern that GM fails as a going concern? Does a bailout happen before the next presidential election? Or is it much later like 2028?
I know that I am not a good short seller. This has enough complexity that even though GM is clearly on a path to ruin, a premature short position could be a big flop.
Oh, yeah, when it comes to government bailouts, Tesla is at risk. Specifically, the government could compel Tesla to absorb troubled parts of GM. If Tesla is too aggressive in taking market share, the political risks go up.
It's easy to view this "return of capital" as a desperate attempt to extract cash before insolvency sets in. From our perspective, any automaker that cannot make the transition to profitable EV making will not be a going concern for long. However, many financiers and investors may still lack the foresight to see this clearly. So there remains an open window for loading up on more debt.
Additionally, there is a history of the US government bailing out GM whenever it gets into trouble. Auto sector jobs are politically sensitive. So it is plausible that lenders assume that the government will backstop any potential losses. This too keeps the debt window open. Private greed and socialized risk.
What about timing? How quickly does the market discern that GM fails as a going concern? Does a bailout happen before the next presidential election? Or is it much later like 2028?
I know that I am not a good short seller. This has enough complexity that even though GM is clearly on a path to ruin, a premature short position could be a big flop.
Oh, yeah, when it comes to government bailouts, Tesla is at risk. Specifically, the government could compel Tesla to absorb troubled parts of GM. If Tesla is too aggressive in taking market share, the political risks go up.
Cybertruck confirmed to have a solar roof accessory from the Tesla app code! This is literally a the #1 thing my mom Wants and why she wants the Cybertruckamazing.
The solar charging canopy and top light bar sound cool...
GM is saddled with "activist investors" who have been forcing dividends and buybacks for a number of years.
For the moment TSLA is about the future, so TSLA investors tolerate their shares not giving them a share of profits.
But also, the GM/Toyota debt thing is overblown. Their position allows them to have had access to cheap debt, so it makes sense to borrow and no sense to pay back. Their debt isn't really used as a weapon against them, either.
Light truck sales includes SUVs. Pickup sales are around 3 million
JupiterMan
Active Member
Government could not compel a private company to absorb another, could they? including employees, liabilities, debt?
I agree. There should have been a few more strings attached to those loans. The IRA did impose a 1% tax on buybacks. So at least there is that.
It's pretty clear that Mary is trying to pad the landing of her golden parachute. GM is toast.
MartinAustin
Active Member
They had to "unsell" the Model X in the run-up to its first deliveries. Elon described demand using phrases like "the fish are jumping into the boat." Tesla did not sandbag on the Roadster, or the Model S, or the Model 3. They have been sandbagging on the Model Y, the Model X, and the Cybertruck. I think there's a pattern there.
Yeah, for Cybertruck it's all about production ramp. I think Elon is still worried about hitting volume production. I am confident they will figure it out.
I'm still skeptical that we will see a solar canopy any time soon. But it's way up there on the coolness scale, so I hope I'm wrong.
I can see them releasing it, but it's likely expensive for a minimal charge amount. Maybe 7 miles per day in great sunlight. At least that's what Elon said in the past. Good for keeping a charge while camping.
Looks like the rumors of ~300 miles of range are confirmed by Marques Brownlee.
Calls Option keep pushing ahead of price (past several days). Now looks like 260 is in play.
I have zero options this round... and regretting my skepticism due to the Macro risks. Until more news tomorrow, I think this is about the peak. And if like last time, the sell off happened a bit early as ARK pulled out some shares before last Earnings as I recall.
Meanwhile, this is what happened the day of Q3 earnings 10/18/23, sellers jumped the selloff a day early. It's anyone's guess if this happens again, curious to see what ARK does today and tomorrow.
I have zero options this round... and regretting my skepticism due to the Macro risks. Until more news tomorrow, I think this is about the peak. And if like last time, the sell off happened a bit early as ARK pulled out some shares before last Earnings as I recall.
Meanwhile, this is what happened the day of Q3 earnings 10/18/23, sellers jumped the selloff a day early. It's anyone's guess if this happens again, curious to see what ARK does today and tomorrow.
In terms of practicality, a canopy sounds more feasible than the typical "why not just put solar on the roof?".
You'd be lucky to get much more than a usable square meter on an auto roof that has any sort of panoramic feature, which is seems to be desired/standard these days.
A canopy that can be deployed in stationary situations (camping, etc...) could easily be the entire footprint of the truck. That's ~12 M^2.
Given that flexible solar panels are only about 15% efficient. that's still 1.8KW of generation. At 5 hrs/day, over the course of a weekend camping you could put upwards of 18KWh back into the pack. Or offset using your bed mounted 120/240VAC outlets for goodies...
Not to mention it keeps you in the shade
OT... My escape to Canada might be slow then... ~215 (sunny) days! We could get stuck in Washington State...
Trailer full of solar would be nice, self unfolding like a satellite even better! Extra camping space underneath it.
Agreed. You can see an almost fully depleted 10th bar in that photo.
As I recall, there were certain mergers in the defense industry forced by the government. I don't know of any in the private sector. So it might be SpaceX that's forced to take parts of GM.
It wouldn't surprise me if the battery meter went to 11
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