Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Hmm, interesting implications, if the sales associate (SA) is correct:

• at max 250K/yr CT prod rate, that implies the backlog is over 750K, or
• alternatively at 200K/yr, that imples a 600K backlog
• if only 90K in 2024 (per Brian White) then 200K, that implies 500K backlog

So the above may mean there were substantial cancellations in the order book earlier this month when Tesla told speculators they wouldn't be cashing in on their (sometimes up to 100) pre-orders / reservations for CT. This is good.

Alternately, if we assume 1 or 2M existing reservations, that may impact the total production capacity Tesla builds (the underlying idea is that each GA line is a module w. 250K/yr rated capacity)

• 90K (2024) + 250K (2025) +500K (2026) = 850K cumulative production by 2027, before the backlog is cleared and 500K/yr capacity, or
• 850K (2026) + 750K (2027) = 1.5M cumulative production in 2028, and 750K/yr capacity
• ie: Tesla builds out production capacity until it matches demand

This implies that 2 or 3 GA lines produce CT variants in this order:

• tri-motor (beast mode)
• dual-motor (350 mile range)
• single motor (Std Rge @ $40K in 2019 dollars is ~48K in 2023)

Cybertruck will be a major product in N. America, and will shake the business models of Ford, GM, and RAM to their (ICE)core. This is also good.

FWIW, I think the tri-motor CT will be under $80K to squeek under the IRA limit ($8K vinyl wraps and $12K FSD software FTW). Also, I think dual-motor will be $62K given inflation (Gary Black hopes for $60K).

Cheers to the Longs!

I don't know how much detail we could rely on from a sales assistant. I'd assume there has been some agreement on how to message the backlog that confirms there are no opportunities now but will be in a period of time soon enough to keep the punters interested. If the sales assistant had said come back in 2028 it would likely make the potential customer start thinking about another vehicle.

Alternatively if the timeline is accurate, I have a CT reservation and it's not likely to turn up in London any time soon - there could be a reasonable number of those reservations from outside North America - shortening the NA delivery timeline

 

[insaneoctane]

Attended the LA autoshow today. There sure is a lot of EV emphasis from EVERYONE present considering the "lack of demand" and reduced model output from legacy. I think of the dozen or so models available to test drive, 99% were EVs. I always feel like Tesla should attend these events to educate the general public about their vehicles. A CT, roadster, or semi would create plenty of buzz, but, admittedly, I don't know the cost for Tesla to attend. At least the advertising dollars wouldn't go to the evil mainstream media...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cherry-picked plot.. why is BYD missing?

That was explained up thread (you should read it). BYD builds a combination of ICE, hybrid, and BEV cars, but does not separate out their earnings on BEV, so they can't be placed accurately on this chart.

Ford, however, does separate out their BEV business results. A better question might be why Ford Model E isn't on this chart?

 

[Xepa777]

Whole mars is a clown bull version of Gordon Johnson. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-pack-on-cybertruck-reported.9885/post-199238

 

[Alphacrux]

What size are the tires if you could tell? The integration of the tires with the wheel covers seems to suggest some coordinated function? Any feel for that?

Integrated air inflation system? Hidden under the wheel cover.

 

[jerry33]

Attended the LA autoshow today. There sure is a lot of EV emphasis from EVERYONE present considering the "lack of demand" and reduced model output from legacy. I think of the dozen or so models available to test drive, 99% were EVs. I always feel like Tesla should attend these events to educate the general public about their vehicles. A CT, roadster, or semi would create plenty of buzz, but, admittedly, I don't know the cost for Tesla to attend. At least the advertising dollars wouldn't go to the evil mainstream media...

Most auto shows are dealer auto shows. They don't allow Tesla to attend.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Whole mars is a clown bull version of Gordon Johnson. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-pack-on-cybertruck-reported.9885/post-199238

This forum is mostly composed of bull versions of Gordo. Everything you linked from WholeMars seemed reasonable to me. So, wrong audience and weak point. Why did you even bother posting this?

 

[2daMoon]

SMR provides a compelling presentation of the future for AI development/deployment.

The potential for AGI being developed first by a consortium of Tesla, X.AI, and X.COM through the pooling of AI resources (data, compute, etc.) seems like a logical step forward.

Further, he explores the idea of a Tesla investment via a share purchase in X.AI and speculation of how this could be be very lucrative for TSLA shareholders over the remainder of this decade.

I'm hoping that the Tesla BOD are presented with a compelling argument for getting a slice of the AI development pie for Tesla investors to share in this opportunity. Reaping the potential benefits from the financial boon practical applications coming from such a juggernaut of an AI powerhouse this collaboration would bring staggers the imagination.

 

[scaesare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728422552052097143

For those without X:

That post, nor any replies, contain your quoted text?

 

[Buckminster]

SMR provides a compelling presentation of the future for AI development/deployment.

The potential for AGI being developed first by a consortium of Tesla, X.AI, and X.COM through the pooling of AI resources (data, compute, etc.) seems like a logical step forward.

Further, he explores the idea of a Tesla investment via a share purchase in X.AI and speculation of how this could be be very lucrative for TSLA shareholders over the remainder of this decade.

I'm hoping that the Tesla BOD are presented with a compelling argument for getting a slice of the AI development pie for Tesla investors to share in this opportunity. Reaping the potential benefits from the financial boon practical applications coming from such a juggernaut of an AI powerhouse this collaboration would bring staggers the imagination.

Relevant threads:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1727215522910253397

Relevant threads:
X App Discussion Already owns 25% of xAI
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/xai-grök-general-discussion.299608/page-3
Future Tesla UI Integrations Grok to vehicle integration likely

Also:
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product?

ps:

Pre advent countdown

 

[scaesare]

People keep saying this, yet available data keeps showing the vast majority of pickups tow 0-1 times a year.

Again, the value a vehicle represents is the product of the frequency of a given task and vehicle applicability.

You commute daily or get groceries weekly, however many vehicles are capable of that task, so the value of a truck in that application is not very high.

You may only tow or carry substantial loads in the bed a few times a year, but there are NO other vehicles capable of that task, so the value of a truck in that situation may be quite high.

I think is misleading to conflate frequency with value.

 

[scaesare]

Looks like the Santana Row Cybertruck isn't the only one with excellent build quality!

Article with more coverage, details, videos and photos about the "immaculate build quality" of the Cybertrucks that are on display in various showrooms.

Tesla silences critics with Cybertruck's immaculate build quality and perfect panel gaps, delivers it to more showrooms before Black Friday - Tesla Oracle

Tesla silences its critics with Cybertruck's build quality, immaculate fit and finish, and perfect panel gaps. Tesla puts it on display at more showrooms in California.

www.teslaoracle.com

I wonder if laser-scoring & sheet bending (or whichever construction methods were used in place of the prototype build method) less part variance than traditional body panel metal-stamping that is known to have some "spring back" involved... with Aluminum being trickier to work with.

Are these hand-finished show-trucks, or representative of the standard production process?

 

[Xepa777]

This forum is mostly composed of bull versions of Gordo. Everything you linked from WholeMars seemed reasonable to me. So, wrong audience and weak point. Why did you even bother posting this?

Because flagrantly changing your stance on everything to fit corporate narrative makes you as intellectually bankrupt as a politician. I thought this was a place for valid analysis, not vapid cheerleading that makes you no better than a nikola or lucid “investor.”

Goes to show how many here got lucky rather than got right with their Tesla position

 

[betstarship]

Reminder: v12 is out to employees! The markets are back tomorrow!

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder if laser-scoring & sheet bending (or whichever construction methods were used in place of the prototype build method) less part variance than traditional body panel metal-stamping that is known to have some "spring back" involved... with Aluminum being trickier to work with.

Are these hand-finished show-trucks, or representative of the standard production process?

These will be predominantly hand built and likely still contain a percentage of prototype parts until they’re pumping out dozens and dozens per day.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Because flagrantly changing your stance on everything to fit corporate narrative makes you as intellectually bankrupt as a politician. I thought this was a place for valid analysis, not vapid cheerleading that makes you no better than a nikola or lucid “investor.”

Goes to show how many here got lucky rather than got right with their Tesla position

Those posts are only at odds with each other if you're a total cynic. Or you have a bug up your a$$.

 

[scaesare]

It does make sense based on hand/ steering wheel movement in videos. Plus:
Normal China production, red = brake, blue = steering pass through
View attachment 993646
Cybertruck: red = brake, blue ? = pass-through, either they combined a lot of stuff (efficient) or there isn't a steering shaft. I haven't seen a low enough interior shot to tell for sure... They could also have an intermediate motor+gear box which allows variable ratio steering and mechanical redundancy.

View attachment 993647
Investor Engineering Discussions

Interesting pic of the CT firewall,,,

Connecting the Dots had a video on CY "Diamond Steering" where he talked about possible electronic steering. In it, the graphic depicted a steering input unit that appears short enough to fit inside the dash side of the firewall, and hence not need the traditional pass-through hole for a shaft:

There was also some discussion of Brembo's electric braking system they developed and tested with a Tesla for CT. Although there's electro-hydraulic actuators at each wheel, the actual control mechanism is electronic/wiring rather than fluid lines, and the pedal still pushes a hydraulic cylinder for feel and. It appears it would bolt into that hole on the firewall:

I wonder if that's what we are seeing evidence of here....

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Goes to show how many here got lucky rather than got right with their Tesla position

So, you're saying people held strong with their position for up to four years before the breakout, just got lucky?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This forum is mostly composed of bull versions of Gordo. Everything you linked from WholeMars seemed reasonable to me. So, wrong audience and weak point. Why did you even bother posting this?

My first ever 'Like' from Krugerrand!

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought this was a place for valid analysis, not vapid cheerleading that makes you no better than a nikola or lucid “investor.”

So you calling the guy a was your definition of valid analysis?

Goes to show how many here got lucky rather than got right with their Tesla position

Don’t be jealous when you were told to bend over you got a pickle and not a horseshoe.