Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

I wonder if laser-scoring & sheet bending (or whichever construction methods were used in place of the prototype build method) less part variance than traditional body panel metal-stamping that is known to have some "spring back" involved... with Aluminum being trickier to work with.

Are these hand-finished show-trucks, or representative of the standard production process?

Agree the sizing and bending process should be pretty repeatable and accurate. On the flip side, the straight lines and flat panels of the CT will show every variation in the build process. Curved lines and the ability to paint can hide a lot of variability and imperfections.

In this case, hand finished/processing would cause more variation. Pretty sure these were made with production tools and likely one of the reasons the fit/finish has improved.

 

[scaesare]

These will be predominantly hand built and likely still contain a percentage of prototype parts until they’re pumping out dozens and dozens per day.

Yeah, likely true...

I guess what I was getting at was: Is the stellar fit and finish being seen indicative of lots of elbow grease to get the panel fit just right, or rather that cut/scored/bent flat panels are inherently higher tolerance? And now that I think about it, is affixing them to a casting made from a single mold going to result in less variance than to a frame made up of 300 parts welded together?

 

[Mengy]

Whole mars is a clown bull version of Gordon Johnson. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-pack-on-cybertruck-reported.9885/post-199238

Hardly. He may be overly bullish at times but your exaggeration is not accurate in the slightest.

He's not even wrong really. Once superchargers are so abundant that "where to charge" is an afterthought due to super convenience, range will indeed be much less important than it is today.

I used to own a Harley Sportster which got 90 miles per tank of range, and I still would take it on multi-state road trips because I could get gas anytime and nearly anywhere I needed it. EV's will someday be the same once chargers are literally all over the place.

 

[dhanson865]

That post, nor any replies, contain your quoted text?

I took it as a reference to the coming CyberTruck event.

The quoted thread was about gas SUVs that used to sell above MSRP now selling below MSRP and the implied days of inventory increasing.

Not a 1 to 1 correlation but not unrelated either.

 

[betstarship]

If you don't mind me interjecting here @Xepa777 and @Featsbeyond50 :

This forum got way more towards the oppo-Gordo lean once/after TSLA ramped in 2020-2021. There's many that left to enjoy the fruits of their Tesla's labor, but many still here are kinda acting a little like they made genius financial decisions and doing victory laps. Heck, I've been doing that myself at times and I find myself having to catch it every once in awhile and re-discipline myself back to a normal, more aggretable/reasonable perspective (in order to help others still on their Tesla journeys). Why not too? I bought in 2012 and in multiple successions over many years before the 2013-2014 and 2020-2021 run-ups. Before and after my health issues. Right now I'm doing a calculation regularly:

Namely, is something worth my time to be a beginner again somewhere else entirely or should I keep paying attention to Tesla and actively manage the investment?

There's confidence there that may breed and does breed moments of hubris now (even with health issues). It's shocking Elon has dealt with this really well even with his wealth and influence the way it is nowadays.

 

[ZeApelido]

The Cybertruck is like my long blonde hair.

Sure, many people in the midwest are afraid of something different.

But it's one of a kind among a sea of same-ol' same-ol'.

And enough people are intrigued that it will capture a large percentage of the people who are willing to think differently.

The math just works.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agree the sizing and bending process should be pretty repeatable and accurate.

Hmmm…depends. One factor is material batch. Every single material batch is different. Every single time. From the same mills, but even more so from different mills. So every new batch of material has to be adjusted for those differences.

Given nobody in the world makes/made SS in the quantity needed by Tesla, batches will be logically smaller than for conventional metals.

Size is a factor but in this case it’s not an advantage. The bigger the panel, the more difficult to get consistency.

On the flip side, the straight lines and flat panels of the CT will show every variation in the build process. Curved lines and the ability to paint can hide a lot of variability and imperfections.

No different than stamped panels. Curves can show imperfections just as easily as straight - the imperfections are just different.

Certain colors of paint hide certain imperfections and certain other colors of paint hide other types of imperfections.

In this case, hand finished/processing would cause more variation. Pretty sure these were made with production tools and likely one of the reasons the fit/finish has improved.

False assumption. Some prototype production tools and prototype parts can be and are quite likely used deep into the ‘start’ of production . I give it a 100% possibility with Tesla.

 

[scaesare]

I took it as a reference to the coming CyberTruck event.

The quoted thread was about gas SUVs that used to sell above MSRP now selling below MSRP and the implied days of inventory increasing.

Not a 1 to 1 correlation but not unrelated either.

Seems odd to put something in quotes that's not a... quote.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah, likely true...

I guess what I was getting at was: Is the stellar fit and finish being seen indicative of lots of elbow grease to get the panel fit just right, or rather that cut/scored/bent flat panels are inherently higher tolerance? And now that I think about it, is affixing them to a casting made from a single mold going to result in less variance than to a frame made up of 300 parts welded together?

Good questions. If I were to guess, and I am, I’d guess someone at the top is standing at the end of the line making sure that the vehicles leaving for the showrooms, YouTubers, and for first customers are perfect. So, I’m leaning toward a lot of elbow grease.

 

[dhanson865]

I'd correct that last line to say: Easier EV certification = the same number of EVs available to consumers spread out across more locations.

It sure doesn't change production, and it might not change sales. It will spread the same EVs across more floor plans and allow Ford to stuff the channel in a less obvious fashion.

 

[Xepa777]

So you calling the guy a was your definition of valid analysis?

Don’t be jealous when you were told to bend over you got a pickle and not a horseshoe.

It’s my example of pointing to someone who shouldn’t be taken seriously, like you.

Twitter and solar city was a good litmus test of critical thinking. You could be a Tesla bull and still clearly see the questionable acquisition price of solar city and the questionable fundraising math (and subsequent share sales) for the Twitter acquisition and navigated that appropriately. Or you could do what you do @Krugerrand and just feverishly promote the optimistic corporate narrative then highlight any potential positive / silver lining scenario in any situation on Twitter, which is incredibly easy to do in any valid business scenario.

You're literally the meme of taking every shitty Elon earnings call and spinning it to be either wildly positive or say it doesn’t matter.

For the record I agree that 350 miles is sufficient for most truck buyers including the most lucrative group. But that’s not the point. The point was Mars flipping his narrative 180 from shitting on Lightning’s range to now defending a similar range in the Cybertruck.

If you were…genuine…you’d see that point that I’m obviously making. But you’re not @Krugerrand . You’re using rhetorical quips to sidetrack the point and try and score easy like points in a tesla bull community. Which is exactly what’s wrong with the analysis, or lack of, here.

 

[scaesare]

View attachment 993898

I'd correct that last line to say: Easier EV certification = the same number of EVs available to consumers spread out across more locations.

It sure doesn't change production, and it might not change sales. It will spread the same EVs across more floor plans and allow Ford to stuff the channel in a less obvious fashion.

I also suspect that "Easier EV certification" will lead to dealerships with salesdroids, service centers, overall knowledge/competence even less capable than it is today, which, by all reports, is rather lacking.

Also, reducing the number of chargers at dealerships wouldn't really matter for consumer convenience (the dealership charging model was fraught with issues), but it might mean issues when it comes to their ability to offer test drives, charge service cars, turn around loaners, etc...

Overall, it feels like, instead of increasing educational standards to help students pass the tests, they just dumb down the tests...

 

[betstarship]

For those interested, here's a great set of some generalized thoughts regarding M&A and relating that to Rivian and Tesla:

The Age of Acquisition

Consolidation Is Coming In 2023

investing1012dot0.substack.com

 

[Krugerrand]

It’s my example of pointing to someone who shouldn’t be taken seriously, like you.

Twitter and solar city was a good litmus test of critical thinking. You could be a Tesla bull and still clearly see the questionable acquisition price of solar city and the questionable fundraising math (and subsequent share sales) for the Twitter acquisition and navigated that appropriately. Or you could do what you do @Krugerrand and just feverishly promote the optimistic corporate narrative then highlight any potential positive / silver lining scenario in any situation on Twitter, which is incredibly easy to do in any valid business scenario.

You're literally the meme of taking every shitty Elon earnings call and spinning it to be either wildly positive or say it doesn’t matter.

For the record I agree that 350 miles is sufficient for most truck buyers including the most lucrative group. But that’s not the point. The point was Mars flipping his narrative 180 from shitting on Lightning’s range to now defending a similar range in the Cybertruck.

If you were…genuine…you’d see that point that I’m obviously making. But you’re not @Krugerrand . You’re using rhetorical quips to sidetrack the point and try and score easy like points in a tesla bull community. Which is exactly what’s wrong with the analysis, or lack of, here.

 

[Ipcress]

Hmmm…depends. One factor is material batch. Every single material batch is different. Every single time. From the same mills, but even more so from different mills. So every new batch of material has to be adjusted for those differences.

Given nobody in the world makes/made SS in the quantity needed by Tesla, batches will be logically smaller than for conventional metals.

Size is a factor but in this case it’s not an advantage. The bigger the panel, the more difficult to get consistency.

No different than stamped panels. Curves can show imperfections just as easily as straight - the imperfections are just different.

Certain colors of paint hide certain imperfections and certain other colors of paint hide other types of imperfections.

False assumption. Some prototype production tools and prototype parts can be and are quite likely used deep into the ‘start’ of production . I give it a 100% possibility with Tesla.

We'll know that production equipment is being ramped up for the CT's stainless body panel production when Joe's site videos start showing us recycling bins full of cast-offs that are a result of the production tuning up process.

 

[winfield100]

It’s my example of pointing to someone who shouldn’t be taken seriously, like you.

Twitter and solar city was a good litmus test of critical thinking. You could be a Tesla bull and still clearly see the questionable acquisition price of solar city and the questionable fundraising math (and subsequent share sales) for the Twitter acquisition and navigated that appropriately. Or you could do what you do @Krugerrand and just feverishly promote the optimistic corporate narrative then highlight any potential positive / silver lining scenario in any situation on Twitter, which is incredibly easy to do in any valid business scenario.

You're literally the meme of taking every shitty Elon earnings call and spinning it to be either wildly positive or say it doesn’t matter.

For the record I agree that 350 miles is sufficient for most truck buyers including the most lucrative group. But that’s not the point. The point was Mars flipping his narrative 180 from shitting on Lightning’s range to now defending a similar range in the Cybertruck.

If you were…genuine…you’d see that point that I’m obviously making. But you’re not @Krugerrand . You’re using rhetorical quips to sidetrack the point and try and score easy like points in a tesla bull community. Which is exactly what’s wrong with the analysis, or lack of, here.

i vaguely remember Elon was forced to buy twitter by the courts so _don't_ see using Solar City and twitter as equivalent other than stock symbols of 4 letters

there was a nice out of phase oscillation in TSLA and SCTY stock prices that could be taken advantage of & i have a SCTY tote bag & got a SCTY referral bonus!

may I suggest all sides have a bite of their favorite pies? I love pecan, pumpkin, apple, cherry, etc and rest in a sated torpor.......

 

[Mengy]

It’s my example of pointing to someone who shouldn’t be taken seriously, like you.

Twitter and solar city was a good litmus test of critical thinking. You could be a Tesla bull and still clearly see the questionable acquisition price of solar city and the questionable fundraising math (and subsequent share sales) for the Twitter acquisition and navigated that appropriately. Or you could do what you do @Krugerrand and just feverishly promote the optimistic corporate narrative then highlight any potential positive / silver lining scenario in any situation on Twitter, which is incredibly easy to do in any valid business scenario.

You're literally the meme of taking every shitty Elon earnings call and spinning it to be either wildly positive or say it doesn’t matter.

For the record I agree that 350 miles is sufficient for most truck buyers including the most lucrative group. But that’s not the point. The point was Mars flipping his narrative 180 from shitting on Lightning’s range to now defending a similar range in the Cybertruck.

If you were…genuine…you’d see that point that I’m obviously making. But you’re not @Krugerrand . You’re using rhetorical quips to sidetrack the point and try and score easy like points in a tesla bull community. Which is exactly what’s wrong with the analysis, or lack of, here.

While I do not agree with the tone of your above post, nor you slandering & belittling the Cat and Whole Mars, I honestly do agree a bit with the crux of what you were trying to say: being overly bullish can be blinding sometimes.

I'm more conservative about Tesla and TSLA than most in this thread. Not in the very long term, I too think Tesla will someday be the largest company by market cap in the world, but my expected timeline for it happening is much slower than most here, and the way I expect it to play out is much less grand than most here expect. Also I don't see everything Tesla or Elon does as being super positive nor correct, I feel they make mistakes from time to time and I'm not afraid to say it out loud, even if I'm actually wrong about it being a mistake in the first place.

I question everything in life, constantly.

With regards to investing I've always held the notion that being conservative about expectations is healthy. Surprises to the positive are good while surprises to the negative can be bad, very bad if positioned poorly. So while I too do roll my eyes at the bullish things many Tesla fans sometimes say, I also realize it comes from a place of excitement, and I can appreciate that even if I don't always agree with it.

 

[Krugerrand]

It’s my example of pointing to someone who shouldn’t be taken seriously, like you.

The feeling is mutual, but I’ll take you seriously for a moment.

Twitter and solar city was a good litmus test of critical thinking. You could be a Tesla bull and still clearly see the questionable acquisition price of solar city and the questionable fundraising math (and subsequent share sales) for the Twitter acquisition and navigated that appropriately.

The Solar City acquisition made me money along with a whole bunch of other people, so -

Factually, there was a lot going on with Solar City including a bunch of crooks trying to bankrupt it for their own gain and they almost succeeded. I was and still am totally fine with Elon/Tesla preventing that from happening and saving as many employee’s jobs as they could. Whenever the crooks don’t win, it’s a good day.

While all the goals of the purchase haven’t come to fruition, Tesla made a go of it. Some people have gotten solar tiles on their homes, there’s a Tesla factory in New York employing people etc….

You're literally the meme of taking every shitty Elon earnings call and spinning it to be either wildly positive or say it doesn’t matter.

Factually, I haven’t done either of those things, but I’ve been called a lot worse so try harder.

For the record I agree that 350 miles is sufficient for most truck buyers including the most lucrative group. But that’s not the point. The point was Mars flipping his narrative 180 from shitting on Lightning’s range to now defending a similar range in the Cybertruck.

350 Lightning vs 350 CT are two very different things.

IE. SuperCharger Network and charging rates. Yes, Ford ‘joined’ NACS, but until the Lightning can in fact charge every place a CT can, AND charging rate isn’t hindered by Lightning design/technology/battery inferiority/bms/etc… it’s fantasy.

If you were…genuine…you’d see that point that I’m obviously making. But you’re not

Genuinely, I always know the points you’re making; I happen to not agree with them most times.

 

[betstarship]

While all the goals of the purchase haven’t come to fruition, Tesla made a go of it. Some people have gotten solar tiles on their homes, there’s a Tesla factory in New York employing people etc….

Last I read, the Buffalo factory is now churning out Superchargers en masse

 

[insaneoctane]

Too funny not to share....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728629892718411816