Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Olle]

How much would you pay for a Plaid Model 3? You know, 2 carbon-wrapped SRPM motors (no front AC motor). Up to 760 hp (software limited), or 850 hp uncorked (battery limited). Est'd 0-60 mph in 2.9 sec, Quarter mile in 10.3 sec @ 131 mph. Top speed - software limited to max tire speed rating.

Maybe we're seeing a Plaid Model 3 prototype testing on the track at Fremont in this week's video:

Tesla Fremont 01/17 | Met God in Wilderness / YouTube - videos

BTW 830 hp in a 4,200 lb car (w. driver) gives a 10.00 sec Qtr-mile at 135 mph (track mode)

So... wood u pay $70Gs?

Yes! I assume by "2 carbon-wrapped SRPM motors" you mean one front and one rear?

I have been writing in the M3 forum a while ago that exactly this is a no brainer/ free money for Tesla since they already have the main parts for it and the carbon-wrapped motors are by now tried and true.

Two rear motors I don't think are worth it from a production cost perspective since it would require a complete redesign of the rear end and could take years to set up. Look how long the refresh SX took.

These posts from almost a year ago aged pretty well, considering this:

https://x.com/klwtts/status/1715034499808120846?s=20

Will only be carbon in the rear and Ludicrous, but still...

 

[hobbes]

Hmm, interesting... Could this also include broadcasting other info like speed limit signs (not working in Europe right now) to the fleet?!

Tesla to Add Waze-like Reporting, Supercharger Congestion Fees, Better Alternate Routes, Autodial 911

Explore Tesla's 2023.38 update: Supercharger congestion fees, dynamic road alerts, enhanced safety, and real-time alternate routes.

www.notateslaapp.com

 

[thx1139]

Hmm, interesting... Could this also include broadcasting other info like speed limit signs (not working in Europe right now) to the fleet?!

Tesla to Add Waze-like Reporting, Supercharger Congestion Fees, Better Alternate Routes, Autodial 911

Explore Tesla's 2023.38 update: Supercharger congestion fees, dynamic road alerts, enhanced safety, and real-time alternate routes.

www.notateslaapp.com

One thing that I would like to see added to Navigation is way to put in your own preferred routes. There are a few places we go where the Navigation doesnt pick the preferred way we like to go. Say give option to remember the route I drive and then save that.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Hmm, interesting... Could this also include broadcasting other info like speed limit signs (not working in Europe right now) to the fleet?!

Tesla to Add Waze-like Reporting, Supercharger Congestion Fees, Better Alternate Routes, Autodial 911

Explore Tesla's 2023.38 update: Supercharger congestion fees, dynamic road alerts, enhanced safety, and real-time alternate routes.

www.notateslaapp.com

Tesla does this in the US. Speed limits, traffic, road conditions, stop signs, traffic lights, etc.

 

[2daMoon]

WOW!
Another green finish, and this time it is almost 50X yesterday's gain!

That's a lot, isn't it?

 

[AndrewZ]

sounds like Cruise lied to DMV, in that case this seems a reasonable punishment, and hopefully shouldn't impact the rest of the self-driving industry

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716895616742420656

Worth keeping in mind the Cali DMV also lodged formal complaints against Tesla last year around misrepresenting Autopilot / FSD.

Some who follow this closely may also remember the NHTSA sending a letter to Tesla regarding how the Autopilot Quarterly Vehicle Safety Report numbers are derived and compiled, and subsequently Tesla hasn't updated that since the end of 2022:

https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/VehicleSafetyReport

Can't for the life of me find the letter though and I believe it has been scrubbed from many places probably from Tesla citing confidential business information, you also can't find the engineering analysis documents on the NHTSA website.

 

[Usain]

Tesla's global average automotive unit economics are depressed, have been depressed, and will continue to be depressed by the explosive production growth curve, for several reasons. This implies that whenever growth slows down and the automotive business is no longer in startup mode, the latent, underlying economics will show through.

I do wonder when Tesla might slow down. But I think you are essentially right.

1) The new factories constitute a large portion of total production. These factories still haven't reached maturity yet. This was noted on the front page of the Q3 deck: "...production cost at our new factories remained higher than our established factories...". In Q3 this effect was especially pronounced due to Shanghai, the most profitable and efficient plant, being shut down, which removed it from the global production mix, and then beginning low-rate initial production of M3 Highland, which effectively turned it too into a partially new factory with temporarily higher costs per unit.

I'd say Shanghai and Freemont are fairly mature.

If Berlin can find enough workers, I can see that factory ramping in a big way very soon. EVs in Europe are hitting the steep section of the S curve.

I think Austin is going to be a money furnace for a long time. But that's mostly because there is so much R&D and unproved production lines going in there. So it's fine.

2) The fleet is young. As Elon has noted on an earnings call a few years ago, historically most OEMs have made most of their profit not on initial sale, but instead on out-of-warranty replacement parts and financing. Tesla, being new and rapidly growing, does not get this benefit (yet). For the average Tesla car, the total lifetime profit for Services & Other has mostly not occurred yet, but savvy investors should consider the net present value of these expected future cash flows instead of fixating on the economics of the initial sales and early years of vehicle life, which is all that is currently showing in the financial reports. Almost all Tesla vehicles in existence are still under warranty, and the current fleet still has lots of $$ for Supercharging, premium connectivity, insurance and FSD still waiting to accrue over time.

At first glance, it seems that Service and Parts won't be such a big business for Tesla as they don't require a lot of service. But battery replacement might become a big business as cell prices continue to plummet. Margins will be high for battery replacements. So I'm with you here.

3) Tesla's vehicle ASP is continually depressed by competition. Not so much because the competitors are competently competing, but more so because they are willing to sell their EVs for big losses, which are subsidized either by investment capital (e.g. Rivian) or ICE profits (e.g. legacy OEMs). Obviously, this is a transient market situation which is unsustainable in the long run, and therefore not representative of where things are headed in the 2030s and beyond. The competitors are benefitting temporarily from the fact that Tesla is pushing for EV growth much faster than they are willing to. The competition still has not shown anywhere close to the degree of cost control (and the engineering behind it) that Tesla has shown, and the gap is likely to widen with mature 4680 production and with the Gen 3 platform, based on what was disclosed at Investor Day.

I'm not sure I agree with this one. It's true that Tesla is the only one who is pricing based on market conditions. But I expect this will continue without regard for other brands. And I really don't think that many buyers sincerely compare Tesla with another brand then go on to buy that other brand because they think it's superior. So I just don't think the competition affects Tesla's pricing much if at all.

 

[Big Time]

WOW!
Another green finish, and this time it is almost 50X yesterday's gain!

That's a lot, isn't it?

Try zooming in even further! It really gets rosy.

 

[Todd Burch]

This is not good, I see Cruise and Waymo as policy pathfinders for all robotaxi networks including Tesla. This is setting a bad precedence.

Different situation. Cruise/Waymo driverless. Tesla has a driver and the driver is responsible for safe operation of the car. Also note that Cruise is still allowed to operate if they have safety drivers.

San Fran is basically saying "stop clogging up our streets with your cars parking themselves in the middle of intersections."

 

[Todd Burch]

Hmm, interesting... Could this also include broadcasting other info like speed limit signs (not working in Europe right now) to the fleet?!

Tesla to Add Waze-like Reporting, Supercharger Congestion Fees, Better Alternate Routes, Autodial 911

Explore Tesla's 2023.38 update: Supercharger congestion fees, dynamic road alerts, enhanced safety, and real-time alternate routes.

www.notateslaapp.com

I've been asking Tesla to do something like this since 2013!

 

[SOULPEDL]

One thing that I would like to see added to Navigation is way to put in your own preferred routes. There are a few places we go where the Navigation doesnt pick the preferred way we like to go. Say give option to remember the route I drive and then save that.

Fully agree, they would eliminate about 50 of my disengagements a week if they implemented a kind of sticky memory on my routes. Harder than it looks I'm sure, maps are big.

Today's FSD upgrade feels better, fewer hesitations. Peaking around the corner on a right turn seems more realistic the past 2 upgrades. It used to just proceed then panic if something was actually in the lane. Now it's a smooth peakaboo right into the turn. It does like the bike lane a bit much on right turns, way ahead of time too. Maybe safer? Sorry, OT a bit there.

Also on that FSD update... they keep using acronyms. Ego I assume is my vehicle or my attitude? And VRU is what? Visual something? I had no clue what they were saying. And when they say something like "10% improvement on identifying bicycles", I always ask, "How many were you missing before?" I guess it sounds better than "...improved to 70% accurate".

 

[joh01652]

I hope that is fake as the price would be very disappointing.

Not disappointing at all. Not in the least. Hopefully this means that there really is healthy demand for this vehicle, and that Tesla will sell every CT they can make over the next couple years at this price. Speaking only for myself, the reason I never put down a deposit for CT is because I didn't want money tied up for who knows how long for a vehicle that I might have to wait 5 years for. And maybe Tesla "loses" my deposit, or my place in line or something, so I don't bother with the whole deposit game.

The CT is such a radically different vehicle than anyone has ever seen that even yahoos like myself, who have never owned a pickup in their lives and never planned to, will buy a 100K CT. Even my partner, as pathologically cheap as she is wants a stupid CT. We hate spending money especially on frivolous things like vehicles, but we are getting a CT just for the cool novelty of it. She's not even a car person and thinks fancy cars are dumb, but she's excited for the CT.

We're excited for first deliveries, and will gladly pony up 100K for a CT when we can get one within two months.

 

[MartinAustin]

Here is the newest FUD article that was presented to me. This is what advertisement/education needs to combat.

MSN

Man that is infuriating... I think it's basically a paid ad by oil... formatted as an article

 

[hobbes]

There was a hearing on the expansion of Giga Berlin yesterday where locals and environmental groups could voice their concerns and discuss with Tesla and the state environmental protection agency. The environmental groups boycotted and it seems not many locals showed up any more, unlike when the first phase which is operating now was being discussed. Sounds like the state will likely approve the expansion:

Tesla-Kritiker boykottieren Anhörung zu Fabrik-Ausbau

Mehr als 1000 Einwände gab es gegen die geplante Erweiterung des Tesla-Werks. Doch zur Anhörung erschien am Montag kaum ein Kritiker. Wegen des Boykotts blieb die Riesenhalle leer.

www-bz--berlin-de.translate.goog

More unofficial info from Alex Voigt:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716864923790188591

 

[capster]

First reports of cybertruck pricing being mentioned to buyers?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716656201730326991

View attachment 984919

I wonder if that "total price" includes some options or a launch package? Whatever, I’m in. . Mr reservation is RN112779***

 

[Mengy]

More unofficial info from Alex Voigt:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716864923790188591

So the expansion is still a few years away judging by that, but the existing production lines in Berlin will be modernized next year? That sounds like extended shutdown time for Berlin next year.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Man that is infuriating... I think it's basically a paid ad by oil... formatted as an article

Actually i find it kinda funny that the 1st slide after the reasons why you should not buy an EV (specifically Tesla) is and ad for this:

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Fully agree, they would eliminate about 50 of my disengagements a week if they implemented a kind of sticky memory on my routes. Harder than it looks I'm sure, maps are big.

Today's FSD upgrade feels better, fewer hesitations. Peaking around the corner on a right turn seems more realistic the past 2 upgrades. It used to just proceed then panic if something was actually in the lane. Now it's a smooth peakaboo right into the turn. It does like the bike lane a bit much on right turns, way ahead of time too. Maybe safer? Sorry, OT a bit there.

Also on that FSD update... they keep using acronyms. Ego I assume is my vehicle or my attitude? And VRU is what? Visual something? I had no clue what they were saying. And when they say something like "10% improvement on identifying bicycles", I always ask, "How many were you missing before?" I guess it sounds better than "...improved to 70% accurate".

VRU = Vulnerable Road User

 

[MartinAustin]

I wonder if that "total price" includes some options or a launch package? Whatever, I’m in. . Mr reservation is RN112779***

The person spreading the claim says the only information they were given - apart from there are two trims - was "one has two motors, the other has three." They weren't given any kind of range information?

Maybe they have been obsessing over their nearly-at-the-front reservation position for four years and are too excited to think things through. But I won't place an order without all the information, and I don't think Tesla will/should be trying to get customers to pay close to a hundred grand to get a truck they hardly know anything about.

Perhaps more information will be conveyed prior to delivery. Giving some customers the ability to cancel & lose their place if they don't like what they discover.

 

[capster]

The person spreading the claim says the only information they were given - apart from there are two trims - was "one has two motors, the other has three." They weren't given any kind of range information?

Maybe they have been obsessing over their nearly-at-the-front reservation position for four years and are too excited to think things through. But I won't place an order without all the information, and I don't think Tesla will/should be trying to get customers to pay close to a hundred grand to get a truck they hardly know anything about.

Perhaps more information will be conveyed prior to delivery. Giving some customers the ability to pull out & lose their place if they don't like what they discover.

Makes sense, though personally I would pull the trigger anyway even with little information as I trust Elon and Tesla. Perhaps I’m gullible

Though I have to say I am skeptical of the original post.