Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

Can we move climate discussion into the appropriate threads?

We all know of Joe Tegmeyer’s Giga Texas videos, here’s a new channel doing the same thing for Giga Nevada as they start construction on a new 4680 cell line and Semi manufacturing line:

Anyone know why there are a bazillion truck trailers just sitting there?

Warehouse on Wheels - like they have at the other Giga's.

 

[aronth5]

Not much discussion about new 48 volt architecture for the Cybertruck/Nextgen car and the impact on margin. Besides reduced cost for less copper used and reduced weight are there other cost advantages? Any estimates on savings? Is POE going to be used?

 

[FireMedic]

I don’t have a lot to add to this. Good to see us getting something right here in California.

I’m so sick of hearing about how prohibitively expensive the clean energy subsidies are, while everyone in MSM ignore the ( in the room) Oil/Gas subsidies.

{According to senate.gov; “fossil fuel handouts hit a global high of $1 trillion in 2022 – the same year Big Oil pulled in a record $4 trillion of income. In the United States, by some estimates taxpayers pay about $20 billion dollars every year to the fossil fuel industry”}

California Sues Giant Oil Companies, Citing Decades of Deception

Launching one of the most prominent climate lawsuits in the nation, the state claims Exxon, Shell, BP and others misled the public and seeks creation of a special fund to pay for recovery.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors Troy's breakdown of battery type in each vehicle

Climate change

 

[bkp_duke]

Not much discussion about new 48 volt architecture for the Cybertruck/Nextgen car and the impact on margin. Besides reduced cost for less copper used and reduced weight are there other cost advantages? Any estimates on savings? Is POE going to be used?

Far fewer ECUs is one of main advantages. This is a very substantial cost savings. If they utilize a ring topology as mentioned by some here, additional redundancy allows for other ECUs to take over functions in the event of a failure of one.

 

[Xepa777]

Elon Musk, Walter Isaacson:


“He would drive from his home in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles to the SpaceX headquarters near the airport, where they would discuss the problems his Autopilot system encountered. “Every meeting started with Elon saying, ‘Why can’t the car drive itself from my home to work?’ ” says Drew Baglino, one of Tesla’s senior vice presidents.

This sometimes led the Tesla team to do some Keystone Kops scrambling. There was a curve on Interstate 405 that always caused Musk trouble because the lane markings were faded. The Autopilot would swerve out of the lane and almost hit oncoming cars. Musk would come into the office furious. “Do something to program this right,” he kept demanding. This went on for months as the team tried to improve the Autopilot software.

In desperation, Sam Teller and others came up with a simpler solution: ask the transportation department to repaint the lanes of that section of the highway. When they got no response, they came up with a more audacious plan. They decided to rent a line-painting machine of their own, go out at 3 a.m., shut the highway down for an hour, and redo the lanes. They had gone “as far as tracking down a line-painting machine when someone finally got through to a person at the transportation department who was a Musk fan. He agreed to have the lines repainted if he and a few others at the department could get a tour of SpaceX. Teller gave them a tour, they posed for a picture, and the highway lines got repainted. After that, Musk’s Autopilot handled the curve well.

Baglino was among the Tesla engineers who wanted to continue to use radar to supplement camera vision. “There was just such a gulf between Elon’s goal and the possible,” says Baglino. “He just wasn’t aware enough of “the challenges.”

At one point Baglino’s team did an analysis of the distance perception an autopilot system would need for situations such as at a stop sign. How far left and right did the car need to see in order to know when it could safely cross?

“We’re trying to have those conversations with Elon to establish what the sensors would need to do,” Baglino says. “And they were really difficult conversations, because he kept coming back to the fact that people have just two eyes and they can drive the car. But those eyes are attached to a neck, and the neck can move, and people can position those eyes all over the place.”

This is from early days of FSD when they used Mobileye, but the culture and approach are the problem. You can’t scale unreasonable problem solving with this type of corner cutting mentality. And why anything Elon says has an unreliable narrator problem, which is why I’ve been saying the clues for real FSD isn’t in something from his tweets, but signs like (1) tesla telling regulators they’re starting to count autonomous miles, (2) the crowdsourced FSD tracker going parabolic on interventions per mile.

 

[Dutchie]

If things go on Oil Companies getting their way for 200+ generations (4,000+ years), it's game over.

Looking at what is happening this year, I think it is game over already. It is just a matter of how much time is left. My guess is 20 to 30 years. I am sorry, I have tried to do my part but years ago I was laughed at. People are slowely realizing what is happening but the vast majority still don’t care and - looking at how busy it is at the airports - they are just doubling down.

 

[mongo]

Elon Musk, Walter Isaacson:


“He would drive from his home in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles to the SpaceX headquarters near the airport, where they would discuss the problems his Autopilot system encountered. “Every meeting started with Elon saying, ‘Why can’t the car drive itself from my home to work?’ ” says Drew Baglino, one of Tesla’s senior vice presidents.

This sometimes led the Tesla team to do some Keystone Kops scrambling. There was a curve on Interstate 405 that always caused Musk trouble because the lane markings were faded. The Autopilot would swerve out of the lane and almost hit oncoming cars. Musk would come into the office furious. “Do something to program this right,” he kept demanding. This went on for months as the team tried to improve the Autopilot software.

In desperation, Sam Teller and others came up with a simpler solution: ask the transportation department to repaint the lanes of that section of the highway. When they got no response, they came up with a more audacious plan. They decided to rent a line-painting machine of their own, go out at 3 a.m., shut the highway down for an hour, and redo the lanes. They had gone “as far as tracking down a line-painting machine when someone finally got through to a person at the transportation department who was a Musk fan. He agreed to have the lines repainted if he and a few others at the department could get a tour of SpaceX. Teller gave them a tour, they posed for a picture, and the highway lines got repainted. After that, Musk’s Autopilot handled the curve well.

Baglino was among the Tesla engineers who wanted to continue to use radar to supplement camera vision. “There was just such a gulf between Elon’s goal and the possible,” says Baglino. “He just wasn’t aware enough of “the challenges.”

At one point Baglino’s team did an analysis of the distance perception an autopilot system would need for situations such as at a stop sign. How far left and right did the car need to see in order to know when it could safely cross?

“We’re trying to have those conversations with Elon to establish what the sensors would need to do,” Baglino says. “And they were really difficult conversations, because he kept coming back to the fact that people have just two eyes and they can drive the car. But those eyes are attached to a neck, and the neck can move, and people can position those eyes all over the place.”

This is from early days of FSD when they used Mobileye, but the culture and approach are the problem. You can’t scale unreasonable problem solving with this type of corner cutting mentality. And why anything Elon says has an unreliable narrator problem, which is why I’ve been saying the clues for real FSD isn’t in something from his tweets, but signs like (1) tesla telling regulators they’re starting to count autonomous miles, (2) the crowdsourced FSD tracker going parabolic on interventions per mile.

Sounds to me like a good reason to insource FSD instead of linking your success to a third party like Mobileye.
FSD came about after the Mobileye split, that was the early days of Autopilot.

 

[insaneoctane]

This went on for months as the team tried to improve the Autopilot software.

In desperation....they came up with a more audacious plan. They decided to rent a line-painting machine of their own, go out at 3 a.m., shut the highway down for an hour, and redo the lanes.

This isn't a scalable solution and the engineer's "fix" is a little concerning if I'm being honest.
Also interesting how California's state agency was willing to fix the problem only via quid-pri-quo.
I know exactly where this issue on the 405 freeway was and struggled with it for many months on AP....

 

[madodel]

Farley says Ford needs the billions to invest in EVs not pay workers. Didn't he say a few months ago that Hybrids were the bees knees and EVs no one wanted?
Ford CEO Jim Farley On Auto Strike: ‘Transition To EVs’ Is Top Priority Despite Losing $4.5 Billion

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon Musk, Walter Isaacson:


“He would drive from his home in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles to the SpaceX headquarters near the airport, where they would discuss the problems his Autopilot system encountered. “Every meeting started with Elon saying, ‘Why can’t the car drive itself from my home to work?’ ” says Drew Baglino, one of Tesla’s senior vice presidents.

This sometimes led the Tesla team to do some Keystone Kops scrambling. There was a curve on Interstate 405 that always caused Musk trouble because the lane markings were faded. The Autopilot would swerve out of the lane and almost hit oncoming cars. Musk would come into the office furious. “Do something to program this right,” he kept demanding. This went on for months as the team tried to improve the Autopilot software.

In desperation, Sam Teller and others came up with a simpler solution: ask the transportation department to repaint the lanes of that section of the highway. When they got no response, they came up with a more audacious plan. They decided to rent a line-painting machine of their own, go out at 3 a.m., shut the highway down for an hour, and redo the lanes. They had gone “as far as tracking down a line-painting machine when someone finally got through to a person at the transportation department who was a Musk fan. He agreed to have the lines repainted if he and a few others at the department could get a tour of SpaceX. Teller gave them a tour, they posed for a picture, and the highway lines got repainted. After that, Musk’s Autopilot handled the curve well.

Baglino was among the Tesla engineers who wanted to continue to use radar to supplement camera vision. “There was just such a gulf between Elon’s goal and the possible,” says Baglino. “He just wasn’t aware enough of “the challenges.”

At one point Baglino’s team did an analysis of the distance perception an autopilot system would need for situations such as at a stop sign. How far left and right did the car need to see in order to know when it could safely cross?

“We’re trying to have those conversations with Elon to establish what the sensors would need to do,” Baglino says. “And they were really difficult conversations, because he kept coming back to the fact that people have just two eyes and they can drive the car. But those eyes are attached to a neck, and the neck can move, and people can position those eyes all over the place.”

This is from early days of FSD when they used Mobileye, but the culture and approach are the problem. You can’t scale unreasonable problem solving with this type of corner cutting mentality. And why anything Elon says has an unreliable narrator problem, which is why I’ve been saying the clues for real FSD isn’t in something from his tweets, but signs like (1) tesla telling regulators they’re starting to count autonomous miles, (2) the crowdsourced FSD tracker going parabolic on interventions per mile.

Uh, huh. It might be up to and prudent for the geniuses to find a way to explain to the other genius what, why, how, instead of being clever and masking the issue. Regardless, that was literally years ago. MobileEye long since gone - and probably a number of the engineers of that time.

 

[mongo]

Uh, huh. It might be up to and prudent for the geniuses to find a way to explain to the other genius what, why, how, instead of being clever and masking the issue. Regardless, that was literally years ago. MobileEye long since gone - and probably a number of the engineers of that time.

May you never feel the pain of sourcing a module from a supplier, finding out there's an issue, knowing (at least roughly) how to fix the issue, but not being able to because it's their code.
Fortunately, in the situation I lived through (not Tesla), they agreed to send over the source code of the critical files which I refactored overnight to meet the near term requirements. O(n) vs O(n^2) makes a difference...

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Elon Musk, Walter Isaacson:


“The Autopilot would swerve out of the lane and almost hit oncoming cars. ”

I hope this is just an error in recounting details and not a fabrication. In my recollection from living in LA for 11 years, it would be impossible to swerve into oncoming traffic on the 405.

 

[AndrewZ]

This isn't a scalable solution and the engineer's "fix" is a little concerning if I'm being honest.
Also interesting how California's state agency was willing to fix the problem only via quid-pri-quo.
I know exactly where this issue on the 405 freeway was and struggled with it for many months on AP....

Not the same of course, but in concept it almost feels similar to how the team addressed Chuck's UPL by sending a team physically to the location and working through it.

All the camera button presses, disengagement reporting, etc but it was social media that brought attention to it and a team physically present and running through the scenario to attempt building in a solution.

 

[unk45]

I hope this is just an error in recounting details and not a fabrication. In my recollection from living in LA for 11 years, it would be impossible to swerve into oncoming traffic on the 405.

Sure, enter the highway on an exit. That happened to me ~25 years ago driving south on the 405 to exit at Lakewood Blvd. A car had driven down the exit ramp and was driving north into oncoming traffic. A terrifying moment, luckily for everyone it ended without bodily harm although the obviously impaired driver was driven off in they back seat of a passing CHP. I was caught in the short traffic jam that resulted. As for swerving into traffic indeed it would be almost impossible.
I recall various Tesla cameras catching analogous events. Thanks to Tesla documentation tend to be more complete these days.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Not much discussion about new 48 volt architecture for the Cybertruck/Nextgen car and the impact on margin. Besides reduced cost for less copper used and reduced weight are there other cost advantages? Any estimates on savings? Is POE going to be used?

So curious how they will integrate the 48 volts into things like 12 volt trailer brake controllers, trailer battery charge lines etc. Wonder if the Cybertruck will have its own trailer brake controller. Should be interesting.

 

[Artful Dodger]

who’s responsible for allowing the system to be manipulated in such a way that a single ticker is responsible for 50% of the entire options market

Citadel LLC/Ken Griffin (a Miami-based hedge fund) ever since "black Tuesday" (Feb 04, 2020). It's no coincidence that Citadel became an Options Market Maker for TSLA just 2 trading days before, on Jan 31st, 2020.

P.S. Remember the Gamestop short squeeze in Jan 2021? if you google: "What hedge fund bailed out Melvin Capital? here's the 1st result:

It was propped up by a $2.75 billion bailout from the hedge funds Point72, run by Mr. Cohen, and Citadel, as well as fresh capital from new investors. Citadel began redeeming its investment last year and no longer had money with Melvin as of last month. -- nytimes.com › 2022/05/18

Those sticky fingers have a long reach... although termites might be a better analogy. We need 2 cups of warm water, some dish soap, and just a few drops of essential oil.

Cheers to the home remedies!

P.P.S.

Citadel Securities' David Silber Says Stop Blaming Options​

bloomberg.com (Sep 09, 2020)
· "The market-making firm accounts for more than a quarter of all U.S. equity options volume. But while Silber has seen significant and steady ..."

 

[MC3OZ]

Cast lower portion of car (front, rear, rockers) in one piece and run it down the assembly line side ways. Easy trunk and underhood access, plus no moving parts halfway across car width.
Interior is minimal and there is free vertical access to drop in the rear seat (after pack mating) and front dash/ instrument panel (possibly single pre-assembled module).

IMO the unboxed process process described on Investor Day is the best unboxed process.

I admit my speculation is partially informed and unlikely to be correct, I am only speculating because I don't understand why Tesla would deviate from a pure unboxed approach.

If it was possible, dropping a prebuilt roof onto separate front and rear castings effectively achieves a 1-step vehicle body construction, it is certainly what I would do, even if reinforcing the roof casting with high strength steel was difficult. Rather than diluting the the unboxed process, this is the perfect complement to the unboxed process.

Some hybrid approach with some elements of both approaches is also possible, but IMO the ability to replace the battery pack is essential, and a structural battery pack is ideal. That can be accommodated in your solution.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone know why there are a bazillion truck trailers just sitting there?

It's a warehouse on wheels. It's Tesla's new way of doing inbound logistics. Suppliers keep inventory ready to go near the factory, and replenish the vans as necessary.

 

[Fred42]

Farley says Ford needs the billions to invest in EVs not pay workers. Didn't he say a few months ago that Hybrids were the bees knees and EVs no one wanted?

My local Ford dealer has a new Mach-E out front: $3600 below MSRP + 0% interest.