Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

They do?

We all try to do it at least once per year, around 50% fail, but at least they make the effort.

 

[EQC_]

...

2. Small shutdowns for Highland in Shanghai have been going on for a long time. I don't think Fremont has had the same number of shutdowns or that there is the same evidence of advance preparation for Highland production at Fremont.

...

5. The timing of any Fremont shutdown would need to be considered, especially given IRA credits, the Shanghai shutdown.

6. There is a radical path in Fremont that they may take to build small numbers of highland vehicles in a "validation mode" while keeping the main line running in a separate area. End of line may be being moved to a new tent. The area where end of line used to be may be suitable for low volume Highland production via the "unboxed process". I don't know if this is possible, or if Fremont is the right location in North America to do it.

7. Assuming some trial "unboxed production" of Model 3 was possible, getting that running smoothly before shutting down the main line is a good idea.

8. I think the plan for North American Highland may be more radical because reducing manufacturing costs at Fremont is more important. And because no one wants a bunch of unemployed Optimus robots hanging out on the street,

...

11. I now expect the price of the initial versions of Cybertruck to be fairly close to Model S/X pricing. With a long wait for a Cybertruck some CT reservation holders might opt for a Model S/X instead.

On 3/Highland production in US: At some point, there were rumors that Tesla's Giga-Texas might be setting up an additional production line (in addition to Model Y and Cybertruck). I don't recall if those rumors were ultimately rejected...but what are the chances there could be a Model 3 Highland line getting ready to come online in Texas? Get that one started and ramped a little, then shut down the classic Model 3 line in Fremont and work on more updates there to eventually produce the 3/Highland more efficiently in Fremont too.

On Cybertruck pricing: When the Cybertruck was announced, the pricing for the ~300 mile dual motor version was really close to the Model Y pricing for a similar range at the time. I REALLY REALLY hope Tesla pushes in that direction as Cybertruck production ramps.

 

[Mengy]

On 3/Highland production in US: At some point, there were rumors that Tesla's Giga-Texas might be setting up an additional production line (in addition to Model Y and Cybertruck). I don't recall if those rumors were ultimately rejected...but what are the chances there could be a Model 3 Highland line getting ready to come online in Texas?

I think the chances are good Highland starts in Austin for the US. That way they could keep the Fremont M3 line running while setting up for Highland in Texas. Plus it would be easier to build the Highland line in Austin due to the factory allowing a more refined layout compared to the inefficient footrprint of the Fremont factory.

Start Highland in Austin, then retool Fremont to build the new compact car just like Mexico will be building!

 

[Skryll]

Here’s the difference; I actually never complain about what anyone has said to me. I don’t huff and puff and announce my departure or how awful someone has been to me.

easy for you to say as a HODLer.

Jk but margin and option plays have wrecked my mood before and then I need to remind myself of Elon's warning to avoid margin and that the market may remain irrational longer than I will remain solvent, especially in todays uncertain geopolitical climate.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I wonder if Americans will be able to import the highland model 3 from Canada. All model 3’s and Y’s in Canada come from Shanghai so I suspect we will see them here as soon as the existing inventory is gone.

Should be interesting.

 

[SPadival]

We all try to do it at least once per year, around 50% fail, but at least they make the effort.

I had a quick peek into one of the AU FB owners group. Some of them are still arguing about lack of HUD and how Chinese EV makers will dominate the market because of this ... while ignoring the fact that Model Y/3 is practically the new Corolla of Australia.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I wonder if Americans will be able to import the highland model 3 from Canada. All model 3’s and Y’s in Canada come from Shanghai so I suspect we will see them here as soon as the existing inventory is gone.

Should be interesting.

Wasn't the news going around that Highland wasn't coming to any of North America in 2023, or did that "news" die already? I can't keep track.

 

[Todd Burch]

My thoughts: As investors, none of us want price decreases of any kind (unless you're buying the car). So I think most would agree that S/X price drops are not a good thing for investors. I don't think this is a reflection of Tesla's performance in the marketplace specifically--rather a reflection of the macro environment. But remember:

1. Price went UP on the Model 3 some (and I'm betting cost is on par or lower), and Tesla sells WAY more of them than S and X. Demand should increase for the 3 at these new higher prices.

2. FSD dropped 20%, but since it's mostly software it is very high margin. FSD take rate should increase noticeably across the entire vehicle lineup (including the high volume 3 and Y). I wouldn't be surprised if the increased profit from an improved FSD take rate alone more than overcomes the drop in S/X prices--especially after the v12 demo and Tesla's now urgent push for major compute as many now see a clearer path to Level 4+.

3. Most importantly, I think it might be time to replace my 2014 P85 (with AP1 and creeping up on 200,000 miles on the original pack!) with a Long Range Model X w/ FSD. Wouldn't be surprised to have my order in before Monday. Seems the time is ripe for my third Tesla.

 

[Buckminster]

You’re lost hiking in the forest and running out of food but your morals prevent you from using an Elon musk product. What do you do?
Elon Musk's SpaceX to Launch Satellites for Apple's Emergency SOS Feature on iPhones

Answers here

 

[spacerfc]

There's no glass house, in fact there's no house...

 

[dhanson865]

The Stephenson IndicatorTM ended the month of Aug 2023 at $514.18 and the stock market continued to disregard the disconnect between the expected value of TSLA's greatness and the current stock price.

Spoiler: That is all.

 

[2daMoon]

There's no glass house, in fact there's no house...

View attachment 970361

News Flash... Elon Musk reduced to living homeless, film at 11.

 

[unk45]

I don't understand your post, the car with worse 5 year residual value in that list is the:

101

GMC Yukon XL

68.38%

My car with 11k miles after to years has a residual value in the high 40% . People that got FSD and pay premium of paint colors and wheels have even a lower residual value.

edit: I guess there is the Mercedes in the Luxury list which is right there with me with 5 years and 50k + miles last in the list.

66

Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class

47.62%

Residual value is set by lessor at lease inception and may be higher or lower than resale value. Lessors lose many millions when they set residual too high. Tesla has been conservative and has usually gained on resale,

 

[Watts_Up]

3. With 50% new parts

I wonder if the 50% new parts indicates if the Hiland has a front and rear casting?

 

[CorneliusXX]

This got me to thinking even more practically about how, between the CyberFrunk, Trunk in the bed, and covered bed itself, you could smuggle half a dozen or more people into the Drive-in Movie!

You'll need the flux capacitor option to do this though. That probably adds a bit to the cost.

 

[insaneoctane]

The true covered CT frunk...

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/frunk-money-shot-%F0%9F%92%B5-production-finish-with-liner-insert.9168/

View attachment 970227

But does it fit a Costco pizza box?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Out of all the Highland changes, I’m happiest about the NVH and suspension improvements. Whenever I’ve seen reviews from sites I respect, these were the areas that always drew the strongest criticisms.

3LA explication.

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if the 50% new parts indicates if the Hiland has a front and rear casting?

My guess it is relates to a new wiring harness and 48V parts.

If there are any range gains beyond aero, they might come from this area.

I think most of the body is the same, battery and motors are the same, Some of the interior elements like seats may also be lighter.

However, my guess could be wrong....

 

[unk45]

I proceed under the assumption that “Highland” exists solely in threads like this one and in revenue-chasing blogs by so-called “influencers”.

That neglects the obvious and genuine symbolism implicit in that name:

Highland Park Ford Plant - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

your esteemed self recently posted the Highland Park- facilitated continuous price reductions and volume. Increases.

Of course, Highland Park also offers inescapable proof that efficiency without continuous product innovation carries the seed of obsolescence.

 

[unk45]

I don't understand your post, the car with worse 5 year residual value in that list is the:

101

GMC Yukon XL

68.38%

My car with 11k miles after to years has a residual value in the high 40% . People that got FSD and pay premium of paint colors and wheels have even a lower residual value.

edit: I guess there is the Mercedes in the Luxury list which is right there with me with 5 years and 50k + miles last in the list.

66

Mercedes-Benz GLS-Class

47.62%

I’ll keep correcting wrong nomenclature. Residual value is a contractual remaining amount after lease down payment and
principal payments have been deducted. NOTHING to do wIth resale value which is actual market value when the vehicle is sold.
Both are important. They are NOT THE SAME!

Tesla historically has not had resale values lower than residual values. Notably, these quit allowing lessees to buy a lease end at Residual Value. That may change, but thus far it’s been profitable for Tesla.