My view may be tainted because I’m following a facebook group of Tesla owners needing a new battery just after the warranty runs out. Mostly 85kWh from 2014 and 2015. No reports yet for my 90kWh battery from 2016, so it’s difficult to assess what the risk is. I don’t want to keep driving AP1 until my Model S’s wheels fall off, I want the new suspension, the 50% longer range/lower consumption etc. The battery warranty expiration is a good excuse for an upgrade. Given that I want to upgrade, it makes sense to avoid the cost of a replacement battery.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Do not test drive one! That is my advice. I got one as a loaner when my car was in the shop a few months ago… 2023 model S plaid with cream interior; if I wasn’t hodl’ing cash for my cybertruck, I’m not sure what would’ve happened. That car is spectacular.
See my edit of the quoted message: I basically think the built-to-order price will have to fall to the <100K euro level pretty soon. It makes more sense for Tesla to sell Model S at around 100K euro in Europe than to sell the same car software limited as a standard range for $78k in the USA.
$TSLA reaching a new ATH fixes this....
So what do you think happens to your resale value by waiting until your battery warrant expires, especially if new car price is expected to drop. It may be a case of 'the right moment always is now'. Or not
Well, it happened to me at 44,000 miles.WK057 and Recell are doing good business.
So what do you think happens to your resale value by waiting until your battery warrant expires, especially if new car price is expected to drop. It may be a case of 'the right moment always is now'. Or not
I got a quote of 18K euro for my car by Tesla. And a refurbished battery costs 13.5K euro. My resale value already has battery failure taken into account. The best time to sell my car was a year ago, just before the new Model S/X arrived in the EU.
FWIW, my early (Feb build) 2013 had 130K miles on it when I traded it in for the X in 2020. As best I can tell it had lost 8% capacity and zero issues. The battery is really the last thing I worry about. My question is how many of those FB people actually owned a Tesla and how many were bots/trolls?
It’s a closed group of people reporting BMS_u029/BMS_u018 error messages. With error screenshots, Tesla repair quotes, third party battery repair representatives etc. No bots/trolling. The group was created because Tesla seems to have tightened the BMS to report failing (or about-to-fail) modules earlier than in the past. Just as the early Model S owners approach the end of their battery warranty.
The main complaint there is that Tesla asks a high price for a refurbished battery, takes the original battery and replaces the failing module, and sells that back at a high price to the next victim. If you’re lucky there are no refurbished batteries available and you get a brand new battery. But that’s a lottery.
As far as I know Tesla does NOT replace modules. If a battery failed due to actual cell failure they are recycled. They repair the electronics/management component. Modules are individually matched to each other and can not be successfully interchanged.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yeah wasn't the whole big Rich Rebuilds vs Jason Hughes thing due to Richs shop taking the repair failing bit route that then failed again soon after and Jason explaining that's never a lasting repair?
This is an important point that wk057 has made a number of times.
The problem has been that in some cases people have a battery failure that could just be repaired but Tesla only offers to trade their battery for a refurb.
There is a decent number of highland 3s piling up in Shanghai based on Jason's latest video
petit_bateau
Active Member
IEA tends to under-predict the rate of change, at least that is the historical norm. My own modelling suggests the world is on track to get there by 2040 for energy.
(My modelling takes into account the observable growth in energy consumption trends, and the UN population predictions)
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Do you, or others here, genuinely consider this a relevant gamble? If so, I think EV's actual futures might look very different than what I see. I consider Tesla the premier EV battery manufacturer (even if Panasonic is involved) with the most longevity research, data and control (via OTA). If Tesla is producing their current generation vehicles that well-informed people still consider a "gamble" after 5 years of ownership, I would have to question my investment thesis.
I've read much FUD on this topic, yet I personally consider the probability of a battery replacement within 200K miles less likely (ie gamble) than I would consider an engine failure that would cost equal or greater than said battery replacement. That number likely extends well bey even 300K miles, IMO. I will admit battery issues outside warranty are statistically greater than ZERO...Am I missing something?
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
This directly contradicts:
"I have made it a principle within Tesla that we should never attempt to make servicing a profit center. It does not seem right to me that companies try to make a profit off customers when their product breaks. Overcharging people for unneeded servicing (often not even fixing the original problem) is rampant within the industry and happened to me personally on several occasions when I drove gasoline cars. I resolved that we would endeavor never to do such a thing at Tesla..."
Source: To the People of New Jersey | Tesla
weekend juice for conversation:
wtfhappenedin1971.com
hope its worth the squeeze. also, relevant from the 1960's leading up to that year:
www.pastemagazine.com
WTF Happened In 1971?
"I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop." - F.A. Hayek 1984
wtfhappenedin1971.com
hope its worth the squeeze. also, relevant from the 1960's leading up to that year:
Six Tech Advancements from the 60s That Changed the World
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I can’t speak for M3 and Y as they are very different batteries ,but the 18650 based batteries have several threads going on them. Biggest is the one where Tesla nerfed the 85s. That was pretty much 100% of them. Then there were the 90s, especially the early ones. My 2019 bricked because of an internal short. Several people have reported multiple replacements. Personally, I’ll be happy to get to 8 years without another replacement.
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