Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Not all, but about half the N. American Tesla Superchargers will be available to Ford customers in early 2024.

Why do you say half?
Tesla is making an adapter (NACS to CCS) for Ford that goes into production early 2024. The next year, Ford switches new cars to NACS native.

All they have to do is enforce that any "right-handed" charging vehicle connect in the vacant spot farthest to the left. That way, only one extra spot is taken regardless of the number of "right-handed" vehicles at the sight (could enforce this in the "App" by telling the Ford driver to connect to Charger #1A...)

Having 1 empty charge spot will not reduce overall site throughput for smaller locations (ie: 6-8 connectors) because the limiting factor is the site's grid power feed / transformer size. Smaller sights w/o megapacks do not have enough peak power capacity to support more than about 4 sessions at 250 KW. You'll end up waiting to connect, or charging slower if there are more connectors. The limit is the same, as should be the total time you'll spend at the SC location (waiting+fast charging vs. slower charging w/o waiting).

TL;dr Elon's team has got this. Don't worry, be happy...

Fragmentation though?

A Tesla can't park where a Ford is and can't use the pedestal that a Ford is. Double sided parking with a narrow island would give 2 possible spots per pedestal. Left hand on one side, right hand on the other.

Tesla is already addressing this via longer cords with a more centered origin on the new pedestals.

 

[cliff harris]

A good reason for the Tesla/Ford deal is also to avoid accusations of monopoly. There was similar chatter back in the dark days of apple, when microsoft was doing deals regarding apple and microsoft office, and the suggestion was that Microsoft needed apple to still be viable, to show that they had not monopolised the computer industry.
Having F150s charge on Tesla's network puts a spanner in the works of any political attempt to brand the supercharger network as being anticompetitive.

Having said that, I hope Tesla realize that tesla owners dont want to feel like second class citizens, waiting behind a ford vehicle that will charge slower. Higher rates for non Tesla vehicles, or maybe tesla-owner perks (like lounge access passkeys) would be a good move.

 

[lascavarian]

Agreed this is a plus for Tesla either way. Most of all for the mission, but the exposure won't hurt

Perhaps the long game here is F dealerships getting some service or support role for TSLA. F has an extensive dealership network, TSLA has an extensive charging network. This could exist in various forms but IMO would be an acceleration for the adoption of EVs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or; "Ford chips in to help Tesla's ailing charging network"! Legacy auto, helping out the little guy.

Teenage Morphing Ninja Chargers:

Heros in a half-hour, Tesla Power!

 

[jerry33]

Perhaps the long game here is F dealerships getting some service or support role for TSLA. F has an extensive dealership network, TSLA has an extensive charging network. This could exist in various forms but IMO would be an acceleration for the adoption of EVs.

I can just see how welcome that would be to the affected dealers Although it would lock Tesla out of several states.

 

[nativewolf]

A good reason for the Tesla/Ford deal is also to avoid accusations of monopoly. There was similar chatter back in the dark days of apple, when microsoft was doing deals regarding apple and microsoft office, and the suggestion was that Microsoft needed apple to still be viable, to show that they had not monopolised the computer industry.
Having F150s charge on Tesla's network puts a spanner in the works of any political attempt to brand the supercharger network as being anticompetitive.

Having said that, I hope Tesla realize that tesla owners dont want to feel like second class citizens, waiting behind a ford vehicle that will charge slower. Higher rates for non Tesla vehicles, or maybe tesla-owner perks (like lounge access passkeys) would be a good move.

is a ford lightning charging at 350kw slower than a tesla? Even in my simple stripped lightning I initiate charging over 150kw at many EA, most lightning will do 300+.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Total Addressable Market (i.e. the size of the market).

This move helps make NACS the "Standard Oil" of the 21st Century.


EDIT - and indirectly, this is a TAM increase for Tesla Energy. So many of the SuperCharging stations have Tesla Megapacks and Solar canopies. That's a demand lever right there for Tesla.

I would not be surprised to see 100,000 charging stations in North America run by Tesla by the end of the decade. Superbull comment, I know. Still would not surprise me.

This is probably the most important part.
Elon played cooperatively with Ford, but now it's their turn to step up their game: build sensible EVs, in large volume. This increases demand for renewable electricity via Superchargers, and gives some new profit to invest in new solar and Megapacks. A real distributed, solar-powered electricity infrastracture for EVs in all North America. IRA's on top of that. Maybe, in a few years, Autobidder will even generate some profit. Seems a good strategic move and justifies the installing spree of the last few months.

 

[lascavarian]

I can just see how welcome that would be to the affected dealers Although it would lock Tesla out of several states.

Locking out of states would have to be resolved. I live in a town awash in auto dealerships. Tons of service bays and lots full of new and used autos. The longer term challenge is to repurpose these assets productively. EM is talking many millions of EVs and vastly more Optimus.

There are possibilities that could ease and accelerate adoption If the partners are aligned. YMMV.

edit: Farley on CNBC around 8 eastern time.

 

[FireMedic]

Locking out of states would have to be resolved. I live in a town awash in auto dealerships. Tons of service bays and lots full of new and used autos. The longer term challenge is to repurpose these assets productively. EM is talking many millions of EVs and vastly more Optimus.

There are possibilities that could ease and accelerate adoption If the partners are aligned. YMMV.

As different as EVs and ICE are…service facilities seem to be one of the few physical assets that can be easily repurposed. Sure, some employee retraining will be needed; but most of the installed equipment like lifts and tools does apply.

Most of the service I’ve needed on my EV’s have been car issues not EV issues (tires, glass, suspension). Perhaps specialized service centers handle battery/motor swaps a la transmission shops of today.

This will not be low hanging fruit for Optimus. We will need skilled electricians and mechanics for as far as my eyes can see.

 

[Mengy]

Nice to see Ford adopting the Tesla plus and charging network finally. Ford continues to make very smart decisions regarding EV's. The Twitter space discussion between Farley and Musk was entertaining as well, they get along great!


I wonder who will be next to adopt NCAS on their EV's? My bet would be Rivian does it soon...

 

[cliff harris]

is a ford lightning charging at 350kw slower than a tesla? Even in my simple stripped lightning I initiate charging over 150kw at many EA, most lightning will do 300+.

It might *charge* fast, but with a huge battery, how long is it going to take to fill it?
I think a good compromise would be for Tesla to open up most superchargers, but maybe have 1 or 2 stalls per site to be Tesla-only, which ensures that even if some hopelessly inefficient-charging gargantuan ford is filling to 100%, then there are still stalls with regular throughput?

TBH the best solution is just massive, massive buildout of a lot more superchargers. They DO seem to be accelerating, which is good news, albeit a tad overdue. Now all we need are those solar canopies and wi-fi and lounges!

 

[nativewolf]

Nice to see Ford adopting the Tesla plus and charging network finally. Ford continues to make very smart decisions regarding EV's. The Twitter space discussion between Farley and Musk was entertaining as well, they get along great!

It is fun to see...selfishly I am pleased as it will help me charge a bit more easily. It would have been very helpful in the deep south where there are some real charging gaps.

 

[InDaClub]

Let that sink in...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662047422397251584

 

[lascavarian]

As different as EVs and ICE are…service facilities seem to be one of the few physical assets that can be easily repurposed. Sure, some employee retraining will be needed; but most of the installed equipment like lifts and tools does apply.

Most of the service I’ve needed on my EV’s have been car issues not EV issues (tires, glass, suspension). Perhaps specialized service centers handle battery/motor swaps a la transmission shops of today.

This will not be low hanging fruit for Optimus. We will need skilled electricians and mechanics for as far as my eyes can see.

Also would be interesting to see Ford E trucks and Semi support the same charging structure.

 

[NicoV]

A sign of the times: it appears the Brussels car show is cancelled for next year because D’Ieteren, the importer of VW cars, decided they didn’t want to attend anymore: https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/auto/streep-door-autosalon-van-volgend-jaar/10470578.html

 

[nativewolf]

Nice to see Ford adopting the Tesla plus and charging network finally. Ford continues to make very smart decisions regarding EV's. The Twitter space discussion between Farley and Musk was entertaining as well, they get along great!

It is fun to see...selfishly I am pleased as it will help me charge a bit more easily. It would have been very helpful in the deep south where there are some real charging gaps.

 

[nativewolf]

It might *charge* fast, but with a huge battery, how long is it going to take to fill it?
I think a good compromise would be for Tesla to open up most superchargers, but maybe have 1 or 2 stalls per site to be Tesla-only, which ensures that even if some hopelessly inefficient-charging gargantuan ford is filling to 100%, then there are still stalls with regular throughput?

TBH the best solution is just massive, massive buildout of a lot more superchargers. They DO seem to be accelerating, which is good news, albeit a tad overdue. Now all we need are those solar canopies and wi-fi and lounges!

Well that is a good point. Lightning do have big batteries. You know what, they also do V2G which is another niche where Tesla and Ford seem to compete but compliment at the same time.

 

[2daMoon]

If GM doesn't make a similar deal with Tesla it begs the question, what will an Ultium Super-dupercharger experience be like?

Will there be a video playing while charging, repeating the Biden "You led Mary, and it matters" statement?
...with the screen scrolling a notice that this stall is currently waiting for a dealership technician to arrive and repair it.

 

[JRP3]

“The argument that we're definitely going into a recession is dubious,” Blackrock’s CIO of fixed income Rick Rieder told Yahoo Finance Live. “The question is, can inflation come down enough to hit the target, and that’s the one that is not clear at this point.”

US economy beats back 'dubious' recession fears after GDP, jobs data top expectations

Despite fears of a recession, incoming data continues to point to an economy that's growing.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Why do you say half?
Tesla is making an adapter (NACS to CCS) for Ford that goes into production early 2024. The next year, Ford switches new cars to NACS native.


Fragmentation though?

A Tesla can't park where a Ford is and can't use the pedestal that a Ford is. Double sided parking with a narrow island would give 2 possible spots per pedestal. Left hand on one side, right hand on the other.

Tesla is already addressing this via longer cords with a more centered origin on the new pedestals.

V4 also switched the side the cable's attached. That helps with reach to the Detroit position.
The plug is on the Tesla side for ease of access for Tesla owners.