Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TrendTrader007]

i personally am laser focused on TSLA long term ARR (annualized rate of return). as of close on April 28, 2023:
in last 1 year: -43.30%
last 2 years -16.64%
last 3 years +52.09%
(last) 4 years +79.57%
5 years +52.85%
6 yrs + 40.90%
7 yrs +39.38%
8 yrs +34.79%
9 yrs +32.12%
10 yrs +47.22%
11 yrs +47.80%
12 yrs +45.35%
13 yrs +47.18%
i am sure above was all a fluke and going forward TSLA will never ever be positive again
after all it is "just a car company" and Elon is just a guy who got lucky
see you in 10 yrs

 

[Cosmacelf]

i personally am laser focused on TSLA long term ARR (annualized rate of return). as of close on April 28, 2023:
in last 1 year: -43.30%
last 2 years -16.64%
last 3 years +52.09%
(last) 4 years +79.57%
5 years +52.85%
6 yrs + 40.90%
7 yrs +39.38%
8 yrs +34.79%
9 yrs +32.12%
10 yrs +47.22%
11 yrs +47.80%
12 yrs +45.35%
13 yrs +47.18%
i am sure above was all a fluke and going forward TSLA will never ever be positive again
after all it is "just a car company" and Elon is just a guy who got lucky
see you in 10 yrs

THIS is an interesting and correct analysis. We can become complacent looking at our TSLA holdings as having a 900% gain or whatever (for OG stockholders) but if you look at it as how much per year it is generating, the numbers come back down to earth. Now 47% annual return for 13 years on average is a hell of a good stock but there are other growth companies NOW that could do similar things going forward from now. Unfortunately none of them are probably run by as good a business person as Elon, but YMMV. Just something to keep in mind.

 

[Singuy]

Plenty of videos of Tesla FSD trying to smash into things as well - not a helpful exercise to post these sort of videos, without the context of how often these events happen.

The context is this is highway EAP WITH HD mapping(notice how detailed the world is displayed, just like waymo/cruise). This is not even FSD beta trying to solve localization with the use of rudimentary maps.

 

[Words of HABIT]

There’s a facet to price cuts that I’m not reading anywhere.

Tesla are announcing to the market “you are now passing parity point”. For anybody watching and considering a brand new car, it simplifies their decision a great deal. They would need rocks in their head to buy a freshly made ICE that will have no resale value. The idea of an orderly transition from ICE to EV is bollocks, imo. Legacy’s demise is going to be sudden.

Corolla sales are plummeting. If we’re seeing the beginnings of the great ICE production crash of the 20s, Tesla’s price cuts deserve some credit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652636115122233345

Sales for Toyota Corolla over last 19 years, trending down: March '23 was worst March, February '23 was the 2nd worst February, January '23 was the worst January, December '22 was the 2nd worst December, November '22 was the 2nd worst November, October '22 was the 2nd worst October...

As Elon pointed out in that twitter exchange:

So far USA has had two large banks collapse in 2023 (Signature Bank, New York, NY, and Silicon Valley Bank, Canta Clara, CA) with combined $319.4B in assets (almost as much assets as the 25 banks combined that collapsed in 2008). First Republic Bank, San Francisco, CA is next, having had $100B of deposits withdrawn in Q1 of 2023. FRC share price has plummeted from a high of $219.16 on November 7th, 2021 to $2.33 close after hours last Friday. This is not good for the overall market which has done a good job shrugging off the Bank collapses so far.

FDIC: Bank Failures in Brief

 

[TrendTrader007]

my personal feeling is (based on my technical analysis )we are currently in a period similar to Fall 2019 like September/October 2019 time frame, which was calm before the storm so in other words Tesla could just run up big time from here which is what my gut instinct tell me. Of course I could be totally wrong as I have been 1 million times before.
Definitely not financial advice

 

[kbM3]

Excuse me if this has already been posted.

Incredibly informative interview by Electrified of an energy storage expert.

 

[cab]

my personal feeling is (based on my technical analysis )we are currently in a period similar to Fall 2019 like September/October 2019 time frame, which was calm before the storm so in other words Tesla could just run up big time from here which is what my gut instinct tell me. Of course I could be totally wrong as I have been 1 million times before.
Definitely not financial advice

I will take your being wrong 1 million times before...and double it!

 

[Words of HABIT]

my personal feeling is (based on my technical analysis )we are currently in a period similar to Fall 2019 like September/October 2019 time frame, which was calm before the storm so in other words Tesla could just run up big time from here which is what my gut instinct tell me. Of course I could be totally wrong as I have been 1 million times before.
Definitely not financial advice

Based on the Covid response injecting $3T stimulus (just the USA alone) into the economy creating stock market euphoria, most every company including TSLA @ $424 was vastly over-priced. More realistic market sentiment suggests TSLA @ $101 is under-priced. My technical analysis is MIA however expect the next major jump in TSLA (to $250 - $300 levels) once Cybertruck enters mass production in 2024. Cybertruck will in turn drive eyeballs and sales of SEXY vehicles. Until then, we are stuck in this $150 - $200 range. Expect All Time High share price by end of 2025 with lower cost mass market vehicle coming on line.

IMHO, still no better company than Tesla to invest in, just trying to be realistic. @TrendTrader007, I remember when you first started posting here on TMC back in 2016. I and many other TMC regulars thought your price projections where outlandish, almost absurd. Most of them came true, so good on you. TSLA has just been dialled back a notch or two. Time will clearly show Tesla's true worth.

 

[TrendTrader007]

so really cool thing about investing is you just have to pick the right stock and stay with it long term
no reason for short term neurosurgical precision trading
as long as i know my limitations and stay within my circle of competence, i am fine
trouble finds you when you start operating like a cardiothoracic surgeon or worse a neurosurgeon with training of a hammersmith
now, unless you are a High frequency trader or a quant or an algo or whatever, you start playing with call options or whatever and the thing blows up in your face : is that really any surprise?
as some say, those who live by sword, die by sword
or those who play with fire, sometimes might get burned
here is my winning strategy:
since 1998 i have only invested in a single stock, i do not believe in diversification
most think i am crazy, so be it. works for me
over the years i have made millions of mistakes but my right calls in stocks like GOOGL, VMW, CMG, BIDU, SOHU, LNKD, FB and TSLA worked
totally missed out on AMZN and AAPL
i have done margin TNTC (too numerous too count). i have done options so many times i forgot
now, i stay with 100% TSLA with no margin and TSLL with few 2025 calls
i never ever mess with any significant degree of margin. i never ever sell short and never ever sell long term call options
never ever do futures or crypto
and i use TMC as my support group whenever i need to
not financial advice

 

[nativewolf]

Sales for Toyota Corolla over last 19 years, trending down: March '23 was worst March, February '23 was the 2nd worst February, January '23 was the worst January, December '22 was the 2nd worst December, November '22 was the 2nd worst November, October '22 was the 2nd worst October...

As Elon pointed out in that twitter exchange:
View attachment 933364

So far USA has had two large banks collapse in 2023 (Signature Bank, New York, NY, and Silicon Valley Bank, Canta Clara, CA) with combined $319.4B in assets (almost as much assets as the 25 banks combined that collapsed in 2008). First Republic Bank, San Francisco, CA is next, having had $100B of deposits withdrawn in Q1 of 2023. FRC share price has plummeted from a high of $219.16 on November 7th, 2021 to $2.33 close after hours last Friday. This is not good for the overall market which has done a good job shrugging off the Bank collapses so far.

FDIC: Bank Failures in Brief

Well that is not really true. First union failed but a forced sale/rescue was arranged. Many others the same way . So far this is not big by comparison …. Not good though. I just can’t believe fed and other regulators were asleep

 

[dhanson865]

Cybertruck reservations are back open again, $100 reservation fee still, no new specs, configure closer to time of production.

Configurator | Tesla

www.tesla.com

 

[phantasms]

Cybertruck reservations are back open again, $100 reservation fee still, no new specs, configure closer to time of delivery.

I didn’t know it ever closed.

 

[JRP3]

I understand it is software limited to 16 MPH.

Rockford is crying.

 

[betstarship]

Man, it got chippy in here over the weekend. Was FSD released out or something?

 

[dhanson865]

I didn’t know it ever closed.

I just did a google search and it suggests in early 2022 it was restricted to North America only. I was under the impression it stopped accepting reservations even in the US at one point but I haven't found a google result to support that.

either way it was closed to those in Europe, Asia, etc for about a year or so and is now back open


Electrik Viking being one of the non US youtubers mentioning such today.

 

[Krugerrand]

Troy giving his 2 cents -

I know what I’d like to do with his 2 cents.

 

[Knightshade]

I just did a google search and it suggests in early 2022 it was restricted to North America only. I was under the impression it stopped accepting reservations even in the US at one point but I haven't found a google result to support that.

either way it was closed to those in Europe, Asia, etc for about a year or so and is now back open

It was discussed a few years ago, and Elon even confirmed, that the CT as it then existed wouldn't be street legal in Europe and it was being designed with the NA market in mind.

Possible they've fixed that in whatever their final design is?

 

[Ogre]

my personal feeling is (based on my technical analysis )we are currently in a period similar to Fall 2019 like September/October 2019 time frame, which was calm before the storm so in other words Tesla could just run up big time from here which is what my gut instinct tell me. Of course I could be totally wrong as I have been 1 million times before.
Definitely not financial advice

Where’s My Vee shaped recovery damnit? You promised!!

 

[Ogre]

I didn’t know it ever closed.

I just did a google search and it suggests in early 2022 it was restricted to North America only. I was under the impression it stopped accepting reservations even in the US at one point but I haven't found a google result to support that.

either way it was closed to those in Europe, Asia, etc for about a year or so and is now back open


Electrik Viking being one of the non US youtubers mentioning such today.

Never closed in US, Mexico, or Canada. Just turned off the option to select a configuration.

 

[bigsmooth125]

I just did a google search and it suggests in early 2022 it was restricted to North America only. I was under the impression it stopped accepting reservations even in the US at one point but I haven't found a google result to support that.

either way it was closed to those in Europe, Asia, etc for about a year or so and is now back open


Electrik Viking being one of the non US youtubers mentioning such today.

Several posters are banking on the cybertruck selling in huge numbers. I didn't realize it is going to be the size of a Ford Raptor. Will that many people want a truck that size? I think the cybertruck will have a lot of cool features but I'm starting to wonder how many will be sold.