Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GSP]

Tesla can't know anything until April 18th (or thereabouts). "Anticipated to be reduced" is safer term to use in the face of that uncertainty rather than "will be eliminated".

"Hey, I only bought a car now because you said the credit would be $0, instead it's $3,750. Rabble!"

The options I see for half credit is if sufficient critical minerals are imported to CATL and they make cells/ modules which are then shipped to Tesla. Or CATL ships cells to Tesla and they assemble the modules. However, I don't think that is how it works currently.

Reading the Treasury Dept proposed rules, I got the impression that:

1) $3750 credit comes from the battery "critical minerals," of which a percentage must be from US or "free trade countries" (50% for 2023). Those countries were listed, and included Japan which has a free trade agreement only for "battery minerals" with the US. The minerals must be either mined or processed in one of these countries.

2) $3750 credit comes from the value of "battery components" produced in North America (must be 50% for 2023). The only components that must meet this test are the cathode, anode, current collector foils, separator, and electrolyte. Cell cans or pouches, and all other battery pack components, do not need to meet this requirement.

https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2023-06822.pdf

GSP

 

[MP3Mike]

1) $3750 credit comes from the battery "critical minerals," of which a percentage must be from US or "free trade countries" (50% for 2023). Those countries were listed, and included Japan which has a free trade agreement only for "battery minerals" with the US. The minerals must be either mined or processed in one of these countries.

This one is only 40% for 2023. (I think it is that 40% of the "critical minerals" have to have 50% of the value added in the US or free trade countries.)

 

[Nocturnal]

Thanks for the real life example, appreciated! So how do you think a 500 mile CyberTruck would do with what you're towing? Enough to consider changing? I get the feeling that a lot of CT's will be used for that purpose. Can't wait to see one with an Airstream behind!

I tow with my model 3 sometimes. If it's a bulky load I lose 50% in range (and that's in nice weather).

I expect the CT will do about the same with a sized up load, maybe a little better but really depends on what you are towing.

No way, 200 kWh minimum, and even that is pushing

Putting 200 kWh on a vehicle isn't as crazy to Tesla anymore with the volume of cells they are planning. Stellantis putting their limited battery supply that they pay a lot and do not make in house? Shooting themselves in the foot twice on each

Tesla can do that and have positive margins still, probably really good margins, save cost everywhere else in the vehicle, but not on pack size

On another note, I doubt the RAM will hit 500 miles with 229 kWh

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635741049187434540

It will be a horrendous failure if the CT has similar efficiency as a Ram EV. (assuming Stellantis isn't lying, which I agree is a big assumption)

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm not sure how you can argue that, when the verifiable facts are:
1. Model 3 variants saw the deepest discounts on Tesla's inventory page in March
2. Tesla delivered 9,953 Model Ys and 3,402 Model 3s in Q1 -- that's a 3:1 ratio; the Q4 ratio was almost exactly 2:1
3. The cars sat on the lot during my visit to the delivery centre were mostly Model 3s; this matches the discount pattern on Tesla's inventory page

But yeah, let's twist ourselves into a pretzel and justify how Tesla's £4,200-£6,000 discounts on brand-new Model 3 -- as well as the offer of 3,000 free SuC miles for deliveries up to March 31 are really a sign of insufficient supply from Shanghai

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639439949274423296

Look, I'd like nothing more than to bang the drum about Tesla's amazing UK sales numbers - the results coming in from the rest of Europe really had me hoping that I missed something. But the truth is the actual sales number for March came in below my expected (and what I thought was pessimistic) 12k. And I get that sharing this stuff won't win me any popularity contest on this thread. But as an investor I'd rather know as much about the situation on the ground, even when it's not great, instead of just repeating to myself that 5 years from now it won't matter. They HAVE to execute to get there!

There is variability in particular country from time to time.

IMO while YoY global deliveries are growing and days of inventory remains less than 30, there is zero problem regardless of any reduced deliveries or growing inventory in any one country.

'UK customers who had ordered a Model 3 might delay delivery to get plates for the new year.

However, if you are 100% right then Tesla simply ships fewer Model 3 to the UK for a few months, this is only a problem if there is no other country where those cars can be sold.

Global YoY deliveries is the only delivery statistic worth tracking.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I tow with my model 3 sometimes. If it's a bulky load I lose 50% in range (and that's in nice weather).

I expect the CT will do about the same with a sized up load, maybe a little better but really depends on what you are towing.


It will be a horrendous failure if the CT has similar efficiency as a Ram EV. (assuming Stellantis isn't lying, which I agree is a big assumption)

Yep. Pretty much 50 percent for us as well at 90 kph. We have toured all over Canada with this combo. A Cybertruck would be a huge step up although honestly I would take a model Y with an extra 30 kwh of battery over the Cybertruck. It won’t fit in our garage. .

 

[MC3OZ]

I cannot see Elon allowing the company to make a consumer vehicle that would consume 200kwh of batteries. The opportunity cost in terms of model 3s and Ys they could fill with them is way too high.
Besides, Teslas dont need that sort of range. We actually have a supercharger network that works .

If these were 4680 (or 46x120) batteries made in house by Tesla and 4680 battery production volumes (and raw materials) supported a small number of these 200 kWh battery packs, I don't see why they would rule it out.

It would only be for:-

• Roadster ( Speed and range)
• Model S ( Speed and range)
• Model X ( Towing range)
• Cybertruck ( Towing range)

For say 10,000 of the 200 kWh packs per year, that is only 2 GWh. perhaps the number is more like 20,000 or even 30,000. Regardless the margin on the cells should be the same as a Model 3/Y,

I agree they would not do this if Model 3/Y production was cell constrained.

 

[navguy12]

They are crash testing them now. That suggests design is finalized (unless they find something majorly wrong). If they actually plan on deliveries this summer they need to let buyers know what they will be paying soon.

If the CT has a 200 kWh battery then I'm not sure that's a success. The whole point of the design was to be efficient vs a legacy style truck.

What if the CT tools along at something like 165 wh/km (unloaded, no trailer)?

IMO, having TM3 like efficiency whilst CT is unloaded and not trailering anything would be a success (as 90% of the time that would be the standard operating envelope).

The big battery is for winter highway ops while towing a trailer.

I know that that means hauling a bunch of deadweight battery around 90% of the time, but life is full of compromises.

 

[FireMedic]

It’s out!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643766694609920000

 

[Ogre]

It will be a horrendous failure if the CT has similar efficiency as a Ram EV. (assuming Stellantis isn't lying, which I agree is a big assumption)

If the Cybertruck had 200 kWh and the Ram had a 239 kWh pack they would be a significant 20% gap separating them. That, plus the cargo capacity, bed size, and performance differences would still be pretty substantial.

I don’t think the 500m Cybertruck will have a 200 kWh pack, but it would hardly be a failure either. Don’t set yourself up for disappointment here.

 

[Ogre]

It’s out!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643766694609920000

Hmm.

Tesla Master Plan Part 1 — 1 page, summarized by 4 simple bullet items.

Tesla Master Plan Part 3 — 41 pages, summarized by a 4 hour presentation.



I guess this explains why it took so long to come out, but wow that’s a big change in direction.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It’s out!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643766694609920000

here's a link to the Master Plan Part 3 PDF...

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf

 

[betstarship]

Wow, these master plans sure did grow up

 

[geometro]

Hmm.

Tesla Master Plan Part 1 — 1 page, summarized by 4 simple bullet items.

Tesla Master Plan Part 3 — 41 pages, summarized by a 4 hour presentation.



I guess this explains why it took so long to come out, but wow that’s a big change in direction.

This

 

[Ogre]

Also notable on this Master Plan. Elon Musk isn’t credited.

I’m sure he contributed, but very interesting that his name does not appear in this report at all. Clearly not an accidental omission.

Notable that Drew is the top advisor on this.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

There's your veh TAM. Lots of info. Look forward to seeing tmc digest this

 

[ZeApelido]

Gen 3 will have 53 kWh battery

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643772070931693568

 

[lafrisbee]

Does ANYONE, ANYONE AT ALL, still have some political basis as to Biden being in bed with American OEM's? I hate both political parties in the USA. However from the cheap seats Biden appears to be in concert with elon 100%.

 

[willow_hiller]

Gen 3 will have 53 kWh battery

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643772070931693568

Also relevant to recent discussions, Cybertruck is listed along with the 100 kWh pack vehicles. But the next step up is 300 kWh for buses, so it's not a very granular rating.

 

[FreqFlyer]

View attachment 925507
There's your veh TAM. Lots of info. Look forward to seeing tmc digest this

If you read the comment section someone mentions Roadster 2 not being shown.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

If you read the comment section someone mentions Roadster 2 not being shown.

Roadster is such a small market it's not surprising it isn't listed here