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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This is what's being discussed when people talk about ASPs.
- With Model 3, the majority of the world was unable to get anything less than a LR RWD, and over a third could only choose between AWD and P. Vs. Q4 where Model 3 sales were heavily weighted by the MRs (launched on 18 Oct). So while the margins on a European AWD or P are less than a US AWD or P, they're far better than a US MR, for example. The very end of the quarter saw the introduction of the SR/SR+ in the US, Canada, and Mexico, but no base SRs and only a limited number of SR+ were delivered by the end of the quarter.
- With S+X, the 75D (the cheap, low-margin version which made up the vast majority of the sales) was eliminated. So even though the more expensive versions prices were reduced, the ASP was still significantly higher. Q4 Model S and X prices started at $76k and $82k, respectively, while after the elimination (mid-January) the cheapest version was $92k/$94k 100Ds, then the software-limited ones were introduced at $85k/$88k, then down to $79k for the S, and then the limited versions were eliminated and the cheapest ones became $85k/$89,5k. Compare these prices to Q4's $76k/$82k starting prices, and keep in mind that the extra 25kWh of cells probably cost Tesla under $4k.
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Self-driving cars: A level-by-level explainer of autonomous vehicles
Level 3: Conditional automation
The jump in complexity between Levels 2 and 3 is huge compared to the jump between 1 and 2. A Level 3 vehicle is capable of taking full control and operating during select parts of a journey when certain operating conditions are met.
For example, a vehicle that is capable of managing itself on a freeway journey, excluding on- and off-ramps and city driving, might be considered Level 3 automated. This level of automation requires advanced sensor packages, hardware backups and sophisticated software to keep occupants safe.
The driver must remain vigilant, even when the vehicle is self-driving, in the event of a failure. Even with Level 3, a driver monitor system is all but a prerequisite to ensure that the person in the driver's seat is sufficiently alert to take over when conditions dictate.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
We should note that any kind of live demo has downside - including AP/FSD not behaving well. Apr 22 is turning out to be a rather high risk venture for EM.
3. None of the above. Remember, this event was originally scheduled for April 19th, Good Friday. Start of Passover. Market closed. Investment community largely off and traveling. Hard to believe someone at Tesla hadn’t figured that out before the press release was issued.
That is a media interpretation which is wrong (not surprising). You can read the full SAE document here its 35 pages long.
Sae 2018
I have two predictions for THE EVENT:
1) They’ll demonstrate automated charging. Elon mentioned this long ago when he said for the cross country demo, the passenger would not even have to get out of the car to charge.
2) The demo will include the Tesla Network app. The investors will hail their own vehicle for the demo. I think this would be fairly easy to do and make it much more real to them.
1) They’ll demonstrate automated charging. Elon mentioned this long ago when he said for the cross country demo, the passenger would not even have to get out of the car to charge.
2) The demo will include the Tesla Network app. The investors will hail their own vehicle for the demo. I think this would be fairly easy to do and make it much more real to them.
Jo-
Member
Is it for sure live? Might be worth pre-recording or having a bit of a delay. We don’t even have to know. I would also like to see a version 2 “Paint it Black” type video...viral videos are better than commercials, as long as its for a good reason.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Then what ? Will the car take them to their destination ? If not, it would be a dud. Even if that destination is 2 blocks away, it would be hailed a success.
investors invited to the event are saying that they are not allowed to record (hyperchange)
So its makes sense that they will show a recorded video (I'm betting with no driver and someone in the passenger seat with a kill switch that you can't see) and then not allow recording for each individual test drive.
Which removes the potential spread of videos of the system doing something wrong and the driver having to take over.
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Along with two others, feel free to cite your source.
Exactly, the post I was replying to was talking raw data, I was addressing validation. However, they can be combined by creating a heat map of disengagements (low bandwidth fleet wide) and then issuing targeted data collection to determine the cause and add it to the training set.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
To the economic success of FSD technologies it doesn't matter what the "definition" of FSD levels are, made by a committee of ivory tower experts.
What matters is:
- How convenient do owners find FSD, how much utility and safety does it offer.
- How much money does it earn/save when used professionally.
- How much does it reduce insurance risks.
- How convincing is the data to regulators to sign off on certain types of uses.
Not sure why people are suggesting Tesla spilt Tesla Network into its own company. Tesla Network will generate tons of profit and free cash flow from both residential(uber) and commercial(semi) which Tesla can then use to invest in new things and expansion. It will essentially be what AWS is for Amazon which fuels Amazon's growth machine
You make good points but all i'm saying is in terms of regulation, every autonomous driving regulation/bill so far in every state, whether proposed or passed uses the SAE. Also the federal bills that failed in the last congress, Self Drive Act (house) & AV START Act (senate) also used SAE. Same is the case for EU, Japan and China bills. They all use the SAE definitions and follow their advice and recommendations.
Prime_Number
Member
Tesla can maintain a significant ownership, and spin off part to existing shareholders.
It resets the table with respect to all other players in the industry.
With respect to the financial markets, advertising, short sellers, etc.....it basically wipes the table clean.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
So, the entire market reaction will depend on what the media write - which depends on the type of demo and any problems encountered - and on what type of snacks they got.
I am also puzzled why they have this FSD investor event at this time, as many of us did here.
My current thoughts are it’s not related to Q1 result, since a bad Q1 is already priced in as it did quickly after the guidance in Q4 report.
The Q1 result itself is not going to move SP as much as the Q2 guidance in the report, which I am not sure now.
Now we know Model 3 is still cell limited and there’s no clear guidance on when that will improve. So the Q2 numbers could go either ways:
Some possibilities I can think of:
My current thoughts are it’s not related to Q1 result, since a bad Q1 is already priced in as it did quickly after the guidance in Q4 report.
The Q1 result itself is not going to move SP as much as the Q2 guidance in the report, which I am not sure now.
Now we know Model 3 is still cell limited and there’s no clear guidance on when that will improve. So the Q2 numbers could go either ways:
- ASP for M3 will drop, and production could keep being limited by cell output. While as Model S&X refresh rumors intensified, their sales are not going to recover.
- Or if they manage to deliver S&X refresh including a new pack/cooling design to enable SuperCharging V3. Their sales would recover quickly and possibly provide a spike.
Some possibilities I can think of:
- They have to offer leases for M3, and really want to keep lease returns for Tesla Network, this seems will need some capital to back it up. And they are looking for partners so need to disclose their progress, and they prefer to disclose it to all investors instead of selected few.
- Q2 is going to be catastrophically bad, so they want something to keep the SP afloat to prevent employees from leaving. But this contradicts with the early Q1 report timing, if it’s bad, they probably want people to chew on FSD progress for a while, before facing a bad short term forecast.
- Tesla senses some big institutional investors might unload to prepare liquidity for Uber IPO, they want to correct the narrative of Tesla is dead last in the FSD race, so at least make some investors think twice before doing that.
- Tesla Network is on track and would need huge capital upfront to pull it off, so they want investors to start preparing for it.
- They did the coast to coast trip (with M3 I assume), and just want to brag about it ASAP.
- Lastly the wild guess people are speculating, FSD is just excuses and the real intention is to announce S&X refresh. But I think this is not likely , since if that’s the case it’s weird to make it an investor event.
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Strictly speaking, Japan, EU, and China would all use their own variants of SAE. Similar, but different. (Not that your original point is incorrect. They will all go by the standards organizations.)
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