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Ford will own and operate their LFP plant in MI and pay CATL for licensing and technical support. It's not a joint venture. Are you sure CATL will source the lithium carbonate?
Sure, CATL is smart enough to realize that it is much more efficacious for them to collect licensing and support fees than it is to own the plant itself. They're also smart enough to help meet all sourcing requirements. They already do similar things in some other countries, often with minimal explicit branding. Moura in Brasil is one example of that.
 
Another couple possibilities for why we have this FSD recall:

1) Maybe the software breaking the letter of the law was uncomfortable to many decision-makers involved. Maybe this was legally related, where someone who lets the old state of the software continue might later get in trouble if an accident occurs. A lot of regulatory action is done in response to or in anticipation of public outcry when some bad, highly publicized incident occurs. It might look bad if, for example, someone allowed FSD Beta to keep making left turns on yellow in the way it had been and then that leads to a serious collision. It would be easy for the media to spin that as regulatory negligence. At some point, FSD will have its first death, and the public might want someone to blame and want to see justice served.

2) NHTSA needs to not only monitor and assist the development of this safety technology, but also to build confidence and acceptance in the technology to give the American public the perception that NHTSA is not just allowing rampant dangerous development processes on public roads. Being tough now might ultimately help in the long run. Overreactive voter pressure in response to some hypothetical bad incident on level 5 FSD could potentially force regulators to take excessive action, and after a safety regulation is on the books it's extremely difficult to subsequently eliminate or weaken it, even if that actually makes sense to do.

I don't know if these reasons apply but I still think we don't have enough clear evidence to conclusively determine what exactly triggered this FSD recall. Especially because we don't have access to the engineering analysis preceding this decision. NHTSA.gov says this recall stemmed from an investigation of Autopilot safety since last summer.
 
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Another couple possibilities for why we have this FSD recall:

1) Maybe the software breaking the letter of the law was uncomfortable to many decision-makers involved. Maybe this was legally related, where someone who lets the old state of the software continue might later get in trouble if an accident occurs. A lot of regulatory action is done in response to or in anticipation of public outcry when some bad, highly publicized incident occurs. It might look bad if, for example, someone allowed FSD Beta to keep making left turns on yellow in the way it had been and then that leads to a serious collision. It would be easy for the media to spin that as regulatory negligence.

2) NHTSA needs to not only monitor and assist the development of this safety technology, but also to build confidence and acceptance in the technology to give the American public the perception that NHTSA is not just allowing rampant dangerous development processes on public roads. Being tough now might ultimately help in the long run. Overreactive voter pressure in response to some hypothetical bad incident on level 5 FSD could potentially force regulators to take excessive action, and after safety regulations are on the books it's extremely difficult to eliminate or weaken them, even if that actually makes sense to do.

I don't know if these reasons apply but I still think we don't have enough clear evidence to conclusively determine what exactly triggered this FSD recall.

If I may,

NHTSA has the duty to enforce regulations as they are currently written. The also have the duty to increase vehicle safety.
Tesla is pushing to achieve a goal of greater vehicle safety through both better design and software. To achieve this, Tesla tends to the "allowed unless specifically prohibited" school of thought whereas legacy automotive leans toward "prohibited unless specifically required" (risk adverse).

NHTSA is then in the position of being one of the few moderating influences on Tesla. Instead of this playing out in closed door meetings where they debate acceptable features and behavior for months/ years (with NHTSA never taking on any risk), we see this push-pushback playing out on the public stage for all to see.

Tesla's boldness gives NHTSA something to work with, not necessarily against. See also: The queen’s duck
 
it's actually quite simple and requires very few neuronal circuits to fire up on a Friday morning:
those who believe $200 is the new ceiling and no matter how profitable TSLA gets it will never go over $200 again: sell
those who see the obvious: $200 is the new floor, maybe not today or Tuesday, but sometime in foreseeable future: buy or hold
who said investing was a complex task? so easy
My ceiling is a floor:

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Another couple possibilities for why we have this FSD recall:

1) Maybe the software breaking the letter of the law was uncomfortable to many decision-makers involved. Maybe this was legally related, where someone who lets the old state of the software continue might later get in trouble if an accident occurs. A lot of regulatory action is done in response to or in anticipation of public outcry when some bad, highly publicized incident occurs. It might look bad if, for example, someone allowed FSD Beta to keep making left turns on yellow in the way it had been and then that leads to a serious collision. It would be easy for the media to spin that as regulatory negligence.

2) NHTSA needs to not only monitor and assist the development of this safety technology, but also to build confidence and acceptance in the technology to give the American public the perception that NHTSA is not just allowing rampant dangerous development processes on public roads. Being tough now might ultimately help in the long run. Overreactive voter pressure in response to some hypothetical bad incident on level 5 FSD could potentially force regulators to take excessive action, and after safety regulations are on the books it's extremely difficult to eliminate or weaken them, even if that actually makes sense to do.

I don't know if these reasons apply but I still think we don't have enough clear evidence to conclusively determine what exactly triggered this FSD recall. Especially because we don't have access to the engineering analysis preceding this decision. NHTSA.gov says this recall stemmed from an investigation of Autopilot safety since last summer.
I think the big concern is whether regulations are being applied consistently or not. This ruling lays out guidelines for Tesla. Are these general policies or do they only apply to Tesla alone?

Is there now a requirement that ADAS systems (in general) enforce speed limits abruptly? Or is this a Tesla specific requirement?

The entire idea that Tesla (or anyone) should be responsible for speed limits at all when signage is poor and there is no reference GIS system which holds reliable speed limit data is frustrating. There are a couple long sections I drive which are 55+ but Autopilot gets consistently capped at 50 MPH because the signage is vague.

My bigger concern is legislation that applies only to smart ADAS systems like Teslas encourages auto-makers to continue making “dumb” ADAS systems which are unaware. ADAS that follows lines and avoids traffic via LIDAR shouldn’t have more generous restrictions than Tesla does.
 
If I may,

NHTSA has the duty to enforce regulations as they are currently written. The also have the duty to increase vehicle safety.
Tesla is pushing to achieve a goal of greater vehicle safety through both better design and software. To achieve this, Tesla tends to the "allowed unless specifically prohibited" school of thought whereas legacy automotive leans toward "prohibited unless specifically required" (risk adverse).

NHTSA is then in the position of being one of the few moderating influences on Tesla. Instead of this playing out in closed door meetings where they debate acceptable features and behavior for months/ years (with NHTSA never taking on any risk), we see this push-pushback playing out on the public stage for all to see.

Tesla's boldness gives NHTSA something to work with, not necessarily against. See also: The queen’s duck
In a way, having NHTSA review Autopilot and now FSD is almost like getting a 2nd opinion from a doctor or an outside financial audit. IMO, it's good to get an alternate viewpoint from an agency not directly involved in creating the product.

Back when I was the CEO (and chief cook and bottle washer) of small software company, getting a audit of our books from a reputable accounting firm that was painful in some ways, as they took issue with some of the ways we were recognizing revenue, but when I sat down and thought about it, they were right (even if it did cost us our first million dollar year). In Tesla's case, the NHTSA is acting like that outside auditor, pointing out things that we, and Tesla, thought trivial, but may make a difference in some situations. Just like a financial auditor, it's much better to work with them than fight them.
 
I think this behavior will accelerate the demise of dealerships. Keep it up. :rolleyes:
This must infuriate Ford but outside their control. Maybe that's were some of the pressure is coming from, dealerships blame Ford for going EV, so it's a payback.

But the dealership lobby always trots out things like “supporting local minor league baseball“ and so on…
 
I used the wrong language.

Why didn't NHTSA ask months earlier?
Me being optimistic: Not everyone hates Tesla?

The V11.3 branch has the improvements that are needed to, hopefully, correct the issues. It wasn't ready yet. NHTSA delayed pushing the issue until Tesla could resolve it. (Plus, free advertising)
@MP3Mike, minor quibble, it was part of an ongoing discussion, Jan 25th just happened to be the date of the official request.
Chronology :
- On January 25, 2023, as part of regular ongoing communications between Tesla and NHTSA relating to Autopilot and FSD Beta, NHTSA advised Tesla that it had identified potential concerns related to certain operational characteristics of FSD Beta in four specific roadway environments, as described above. NHTSA requested that Tesla address these concerns by filing a recall notice.

- In the following days, NHTSA and Tesla met numerous times to discuss the Agency’s concerns and Tesla’s proposed over-the-air (“OTA”) improvements in response.

- On February 7, 2023, while not concurring with the agency’s analysis, Tesla decided to administer a voluntary recall out of an abundance of caution.

- As of February 14, 2023, Tesla has identified 18 warranty claims, received between May 8, 2019, and September 12, 2022, that may be related to the conditions described above. Tesla is not aware of any injuries or deaths that may be related to such conditions.

The FCC delayed release of the radar submittals until after investor day (extra month beyond Tesla's request).

Nevermind, just went live. (Putting link in HW4 thread)H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)
 
On the topic of whether or not HW4 and HW3 can integrate, heres my perspective. I've been coding for 40 years, C++ for 30+ years.

If Tesla have any idea how to do software engineering (and clearly they do), then there is likely a very definite modular break between the neural net code that does object recognition and image-based distance approximation (basically working out what is where), and the NN for deciding what actions to take, which lane to be in, what speed to set, where to face the vehicle etc...

In other words, some code creates a 'world view' likely saying 'object X,Y and Z are at these positions, with this percentage of confidence', and then the decision making code decides how to handle the vehcile given this data.

The second set (decision and driving) can be totally independent of how the first set of data is determined. In fact we KNOW this is how tesla do it, because they used to be pure NN for object recognition and pure C++ for decisions. Now its a bit of NN in the decision code.

I assume HW3 will be able to say 'objects X,Y,Z at these positions, 90% confidence'. HW4 will say 'X,Y,Z with 98% confidence'. As far as the decision code is concerned, it doesn't even have to know if it has HW3 or 4 installed. They MUST work this way, because the number of cameras may decrease in real time due to hardware failure, or blindness/obfuscation of a camera by sunlight or dirt/dust.

So I dont think there is much concern that HW3 will not be able to use a lot of HW4 code. I dont see this as an issue at all. What IS an issue is whether or not the confidence level from HW3 sensors is sufficient to enable hands-free FSD. Thats the only worry, from an investor POV.

In general I think its worth thinking about HW4 and HW3 more as 'sensor suite 3' and 4, as thats likely the biggest real difference.
IANAL.
As someone who has had FSD since mid 2019, and is now on the beta, agreed.

Plus, there are so many posts about how f-ed it is to not replace all HW3 with HW4, before it even is possible -- I mean, I think all of those posts aren't really thinking through how FSD is developing.

The main thing that the two additional front bumper cameras give you applies to a relatively narrow set of driving conditions -- basically nudging out of a driveway on to a street with an otherwise blocked view. Someone may point this out, but I can't think of another circumstance.

And that circumstance is not just sensor based, its also based on the driving decision where (how to describe this) you cannot "see" that there is not a car coming due to an obstruction, but you "know" there is not a car there because you can see farther down the road and you have waited an appropriate time.

Its the decision where you know a pedestrian is not behind an object because if they were walking they would have already passed it.

Those look to me to be the last set of decisions because the software is right now so obviously working on reactions to things it actually sees.
 
I think this is what they mean by "variable speed zones" led speed limit signs that change depending on the traffic. View attachment 908139 21 Model 3 does not see variable speedlimit signs
Other instances come to mind: (1) Yellow diamond sign with embedded (reduced) speed limit sign in it; (2) school zone sign requiring reduction of speed to 20mph "when light is flashing" or during certain times of certain times in the "school day"; (3) prompt reaction to change in speed from higher speed to lower speed (the reaction is currently so slow that you can get ticketed for speeding because the car, while slowing down slowly, if still 10+ mph faster than the currently applicable speed limit.
 
(3) prompt reaction to change in speed from higher speed to lower speed (the reaction is currently so slow that you can get ticketed for speeding because the car, while slowing down slowly, if still 10+ mph faster than the currently applicable speed limit.
The issue is that slowing down should start before the speed limit change, not when the car passes the speed limit sign (current behaviour)
 
current working hypothesis: TSLA likely to overall keep on running right into P&D report until April3, 2023 and even thereafter, especially thereafter since P&D report likely to be blockbuster, one for the ages
so another 12 to 14 weeks or so before any major correction which brings me right into May, 2023
all pure speculation, of course and subject to multiple revisions as price action unfolds over next few months
NFA
not for adults
(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
 
But the dealership lobby always trots out things like “supporting local minor league baseball“ and so on…
Some years ago in the Texas legislature, Elon said he would sign a check to Little League. Actually, dealership sponsorship of local sports teams is a form of advertising rather than charity. The dealership's name is on the uniforms. It's hoped that the players and parents will eventually become customers.

tanner-boyle-12-the-bad-news-bears-chicago-bail-bonds-movie-jersey-havejerseys-baseball-feed-agegroup-adult-color_995_800x.jpg
 
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TSLAQ is pouring it on trying to keep us below 200, but the fight is on right now. All the macros down today and we’re holding strong… probably be pushing forward in spite of the macros save Max Pain (Side note… I had a statistics teacher named Max Paine). Today’s little counter-FUD “Leak”: Tesla factory opening in Mexico.

Is this a genuine leak from Mexico side or is Tesla really announcing this on the lead up to their Investor Day. All this news popping out prior to the call making me jazzed for what will be on the call.


PS: Figured out why it’s called Q.

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PPS No complaints about Today’s crayon art. I scratched my original bad art idea

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