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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
Super interesting point of view from Whole Mars Blog this evening which puts this NHTSA thing in perspective.
I hadn’t really thought about it this way, but while we’ve been looking at it from the glass half empty perspective, this really puts a different spin on it. If this is all NHTSA takes away from this, then this is a win.
I can't piece together how this NHTSA recall fits in with what I see developing.
Elon handles people and situations really bad sometimes. Too impulsively. But he's a fast learner and willing to pivot (possibly his most valuable quality). A couple months ago when the Elon/Apple relationship was circling the drain (I think) Tim Cook reached out to Elon and they were able to get on the same page and fix the relationship. I think Elon took that playbook to the Biden administration and they got their kumbaya moment over the charging network.
The recall doesn't fit with that. If it was anyone else besides Elon, I would think it was a bargaining chip but I don't think Elon will compromise in that way. Never the less, the timing of these patty cake requests/demands seems too coincidental. They could have issued this recall months ago. Why now?
Super interesting point of view from Whole Mars Blog this evening which puts this NHTSA thing in perspective.
I hadn’t really thought about it this way, but while we’ve been looking at it from the glass half empty perspective, this really puts a different spin on it. If this is all NHTSA takes away from this, then this is a win.
As much as it annoys me that NHTSA enforces rules that were made to cope with human flaws (like lack of attention), from a European point of view, it's still a very liberal environment. Within the EU, even regular AP is nonsensically curtailed and won't even do lane changes on motorways without confirmation. On a personal level, I'm envious and as an investor, I'm grateful that Tesla can collect real-world training data and edge cases for the FSD program.
Well they are really stupid then. Much more effective to go with sexual harassment, racism or some kind of intolerance. At my last company, these were incredibly effective tools for those with no integrity.
betting on TSLA diving sub-200 and staying there over next 7 trading days until March 1 is an amazingly brilliant trading strategy
yet some deep pocketed traders doing exactly that
in fact, i am tempted to do precisely the same
i don't like money
it's actually quite simple and requires very few neuronal circuits to fire up on a Friday morning:
those who believe $200 is the new ceiling and no matter how profitable TSLA gets it will never go over $200 again: sell
those who see the obvious: $200 is the new floor, maybe not today or Tuesday, but sometime in foreseeable future: buy or hold
who said investing was a complex task? so easy
As long as my HW3 car can eventually do no-nag, hands free highway lane keeping, without also needing my eyeballs pointed forward 99% of the time, I'll be satisified for my use case... the only reason I bought FSD on sale years ago as an upgrade from EAP was so I would get upgraded to HW3 and the hopes of hands-free / eyes-free in the future. I would not justify the old or current pricing of FSD though, if I was buying a new car, I would only get EAP. FSD for city streets and all is nice, but not something I need/want strongly enough to spend money on.
Now on the other hand, if they offered me the option to spend money on an upgrade from the anemic Intel Atom to an AMD based system... I would be glad to throw extra money at Tesla for it. If that just happened to include a pseudo-HW4 upgrade, bonus. Getting all the cameras of HW4 would obviously be impractical, but no reason they couldn't eventually build HW4-for-HW3/2.5-cars units where the brains get upgraded with the faster and possibly cheaper to produce HW4 silicon. Wouldn't make sense unless they either needed the extra computational power to deliver on HW3 FSD promises or there's a sufficient number of HW2.5 to 3(+) retrofits still outstanding for whatever reason and they've stopped making HW3 silicon at that point.
When I first saw mention about HW4 being on some new fancy wiring setup I was expecting it to be something exotic like when they talked about having solid (and easily robot installable) wire harnesses, but it looks like they just changed a few connectors around and added extra connections for things, which make it not plug-and-play (but potentially could be with a harness adapter, maybe, and perhaps a different bracket - though obviously you'd just be getting extra NN compute power and not anything else vs HW3).
I can't piece together how this NHTSA recall fits in with what I see developing.
Elon handles people and situations really bad sometimes. Too impulsively. But he's a fast learner and willing to pivot (possibly his most valuable quality). A couple months ago when the Elon/Apple relationship was circling the drain (I think) Tim Cook reached out to Elon and they were able to get on the same page and fix the relationship. I think Elon took that playbook to the Biden administration and they got their kumbaya moment over the charging network.
The recall doesn't fit with that. If it was anyone else besides Elon, I would think it was a bargaining chip but I don't think Elon will compromise in that way. Never the less, the timing of these patty cake requests/demands seems too coincidental. They could have issued this recall months ago. Why now?
I agree with this thinking related to more beneficial relationships.
I would like to think that the new legal team is getting ahead of regulation. It is ALWAYS best to be ahead of regulatory action. Take your hit, have a timeline and a solution immediately.
To me, I am delighted to see how this was handled. If this level of regulatory management is sustained, a lot of future headaches will be mitigated.
Getting all the cameras of HW4 would obviously be impractical, but no reason they couldn't eventually build HW4-for-HW3/2.5-cars units where the brains get upgraded with the faster and possibly cheaper to produce HW4 silicon.
Agree and expect this. There will be various compute modules. Cars vs trucks vs Optimus etc. There will be a 3-plus FSD board one day. Wiring will be supplemented with RF connections.
HW footprint (& power usage) will benefit from advances in component density. HW 4 seems to be mostly a truck thing whereas HW 5 may be more cross platform IMO.
That is how the boombox while driving recall was, Tesla argued that they followed all the rules for a while but NHTSA pestered them enough that they voluntarily did a recall on it. (I just got all communication between the 2 from NHTSA yesterday because i forgot it was a ‘voluntary recall’!)I only heard negative stories on that and boombox while driving actually may be better than the quiet noise maker that is used, I feel that NHTSA is targeting Tesla a bit. J doing it at opportune times financially for ‘us’ (short term/immediately anyhow)
The boombox recall push really grinds my gears! I used that feature in hillclimb races!
It’s time for Tesla to get noisy about these BS pushes for news headlines not reflective of reality
it's actually quite simple and requires very few neuronal circuits to fire up on a Friday morning:
those who believe $200 is the new ceiling and no matter how profitable TSLA gets it will never go over $200 again: sell
those who see the obvious: $200 is the new floor, maybe not today or Tuesday, but sometime in foreseeable future: buy or hold
who said investing was a complex task? so easy
$200 is neither a floor nor a ceiling nor a resistance level or whatever. Just the human tendency to seek out patterns, even where there are none, combined with a number system which happens to be based on having 10 digits on our hands.
What are folks who see that as the reality supposed to do???
I wonder where CATL will source the lithium carbonate for their new Ford LFP bty plant in Michigan. There are obvious IRA materials sourcing issues, and perhaps Sherman Anti-trust issues if that supply is provided at below market price, but sourced from CATL.
$200 is neither a floor nor a ceiling nor a resistance level or whatever. Just the human tendency to seek out patterns, even where there are none, combined with a number system which happens to be based on having 10 digits on our hands.
What are folks who see that as the reality supposed to do???
I'm seeing 200 as a new local floor for traders for those who bought at recent low taking some profit enough to trigger algobots for selling at this level. Then those traders can get in at a new support level with larger volumes. Just a game traders are playing and not germane to a HODL strategy. What would tesla's revenues look like in 7 years and 20 million units and many more miles for FSD training?
I'm seeing 200 as a new local floor for traders for those who bought at recent low taking some profit enough to trigger algobots for selling at this level.
I think NHTSA uses the term “recall” because that’s the only term used US law, from what I can find. The only alternative would appear to be something like “defect/noncompliance notification” which isn’t as short and catchy.
At least in my experience in commercial aerospace at Boeing, when it came to compliance with federal regulations there was always an effort to use language that was as identical as possible to the exact words from law. That keeps common terminology between all organizations involved and also helps makes traceability from law to execution more obvious. I think automotive regulation probably is handled similarly.
This law was enacted in 1966 when no cars had software. Changing terms can seem simple but be an annoying nightmare in practice, at least when dealing with safety regulations stuff. That may be a factor here in the continued usage of “recall”.
Remediation of defects or noncompliances must be done by repair, replacement, or refund. Tesla’s OTA software updates are effectively a replacement of previously defective software. Nothing in the law appears to indicate that “recalls” are intended to apply specifically to vehicles brought back to dealerships. That’s just traditionally how the requirements have been fulfilled.
the manufacturer shall remedy the defect or noncompliance in any of the following ways themanufacturer chooses:
(A)if a vehicle—
(i)
by repairing the vehicle;
(ii)
by replacing the vehicle with an identical or reasonably equivalent vehicle; or
(iii)
by refunding the purchase price, less a reasonable allowance for depreciation.
(B)
if replacement equipment, by repairing the equipment, replacing the equipment with identical or reasonably equivalent equipment, or by refunding the purchase price.
It seems to me this isn’t a battle worth fighting because it might require a literal act of Congress to change, and anyway it’s not really conclusive that NHTSA is just behind the times or trying to make Tesla look bad by labeling these software changes as recalls.
Eventually, as we get deeper into the adaption of EV’s the terms will change or a new term will be added to better describe such software changes.
With prob 95 percent or whatever of cars sold this still isn’t possible and it’s understandable that the machinery of federal bureaucracy has moved so slowly on something like how to label new variants of “recalls” .....hardly "all-hands-on-deck!" problem.
People here fix on it because it inadvertently adds to FUD but the rest of American probably could care less... its not the biggest problem the nation has right now. Probably pretty far down on the list of NHTSA problems for that matter...
Someone seems to have hacked the Tesla Youtube Channel to scam people into Bitcoin and Eth payments
This is super weird - the Stream is the Autonomy Day from last year with this box on the page:
Just giving you a warning - I was in a boring customer call browsing youtube - saw the video from Tesla channel with BMW and was already excusing myself to leave the meeting ... only then I realized it's a scam
UPDATE: thx replicant - it's indeed not the Tesla channel, but brilliant to have Tesla Videos on Channel frontpage
Well - you are in the camp of "Tesla can't abstract camera placement from FSD training" - I am in the camp of hoping Tesla will be able to have a stitching layer for each camera setup that provides 360° data to the FSD layer.
Because if what you say (which might be true) stays true then Tesla is de-incentivized to launch more models==camera_setups and also has a hard time supporting older setups. (S/X and Y/3 are similar but CT is much bigger, Roadster lower and Semi is a different beast alltogether).
I guess we have better threads to discuss if an abstraction is even possible, but on a high level for investor insights I think it's important to understand if an abstraction is possible or not.
At the original Semi reveal, like ~2 yrs ago, Elon stated they could apply FSD to the Semi. He made it sound quite simply to put the new parameters of the vehicle and it will work.
Clearly the camera locations on the semi are different from the Model 3 (at the time).
