Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

Nope, not going to be fixed in 2 months and we should have zero expectations to. If NHTSA wants to play this game then the following will happen until the problem is fixed in.

Tesla releases next software they were going to release anyways to fix the issue
NHTSA spends 3-6 months investigating it-> wants Tesla to issue a recall because it's not fixed
Tesla issues another recall, tries to fix it with the next software update
NHTSA spends 3-6 months investigating it->wants Tesla to issue a recall

We are going to do this until it's fixed. This is what happens with generalized FSD. Who knows if the next set of trained data would fix your edge case. Tesla will always claim that piece of software is to fix the issue because that's the intent. Will it or not? I mean there are a billion different kind of road variations and scenarios, will it be perfect one day? Who knows. But hey that's why there's a driver in the seat ready to take over, hence the purpose of the person in the seat. Maybe NHTSA forgot who is responsible in preventing the car from acting dangerously.

This is not how the recall process works, and that’s part of why the recall process exists and applies across both hardware and software.

Manufacturers do not get unlimited attempts to fix something. Regulators can gauge the adequacy of fixes and take further escalatory action. This is all very structured and the NHTSA has documentation for it, the recall process exists to identify defects and ensure they are addresses through the three available options.

What you’re saying is not how the world functions, and these people weren’t born yesterday.

 

[willow_hiller]

The problems cited by the NHTSA here have existed for years, and those are also almost assuredly not being fixed in 2 months.

Have you read the details of the recall? Three out of the four items aren't bugs or faults, they're just differences in opinion between Tesla and the NHTSA on how FSD Beta should operate.

Here's the full list:

1) traveling or turning through certain intersections during a stale yellow traffic light; 2) the perceived duration of the vehicle’s static position at certain intersections with a stop sign, particularly when the intersection is clear of any other road users; 3) adjusting vehicle speed while traveling through certain variable speed zones, based on detected speed limit signage and/or the vehicle's speed offset setting that is adjusted by the driver; and 4) negotiating a lane change out of certain turn-only lanes to continue traveling straight.

On item 1, FSD Beta is actually very proficient at estimating whether it has enough time to travel through an intersection on a yellow. But the NHTSA would prefer that Tesla comes to a stop on yellow instead of proceeding.

On item 2, other descriptions make it clear that the NHTSA thinks Tesla isn't stopping for a sufficient amount of time. They want the cars to wait longer.

On item 3, Tesla has optimized for passenger comfort over quickly matching set speeds. The NHTSA wants them to snap to the set speed faster.

All of those can be fixed almost immediately without any additional features to FSD Beta. The only one that might take some work is item 4, if they choose to fix it by solving the lane selection problem. As I said above, they might be able to fix it to the NHTSA's liking by simply never allowing FSD to attempt to proceed forward once it recognizes it's in a turn lane.

 

[Ogre]

Have you read the details of the recall? Three out of the four items aren't bugs or faults, they're just differences in opinion between Tesla and the NHTSA on how FSD Beta should operate.

Here's the full list:


On item 1, FSD Beta is actually very proficient at estimating whether it has enough time to travel through an intersection on a yellow. But the NHTSA would prefer that Tesla comes to a stop on yellow instead of proceeding.

On item 2, other descriptions make it clear that the NHTSA thinks Tesla isn't stopping for a sufficient amount of time. They want the cars to wait longer.

On item 3, Tesla has optimized for passenger comfort over quickly matching set speeds. The NHTSA wants them to snap to the set speed faster.

All of those can be fixed almost immediately without any additional features to FSD Beta. The only one that might take some work is item 4, if they choose to fix it by solving the lane selection problem. As I said above, they might be able to fix it to the NHTSA's liking by simply never allowing FSD to attempt to proceed forward once it recognizes it's in a turn lane.

I’m starting to wonder if any of the NHTSA’s meddling has ever been the result of actual issues or if it’s 100% nanny state nonsense. Maybe just 99% nanny state nonsense. Absolutely insane the level of BS around this.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m starting to wonder if any of the NHTSA’s meddling has ever been the result of actual issues or if it’s 100% nanny state nonsense. Maybe just 99% nanny state nonsense. Absolutely insane the level of BS around this.

And yet, it was completely predictable that the NHTSA would attempt to nerf FSD. This is a stark example of selectively applied rules, and motivated regulation. From Missy Cunningham to Dan O'Dowd, big corporations stand to lose bigly if Tesla succeeds too quickly.

 

[Gigapress]

Basically said "hey, guys, remember you’re supposed to keep your hands on the wheel.” and “huge safety benefits ahead, but it’s gonna be awhile."
Sounds about right.

This has been NHTSA’s messaging on this for many years. It’s been saying that autonomous driving has immense potential to advance NHSTA’s legally mandated mission to improve American motor vehicle safety, but also that the technology is not available on any vehicles consumers can buy and it’s uncertain how long it’ll take to be mature.

From what I read through their archives on NHTSA.gov, this was the same approach even during the Trump administration, which suggests bipartisan support for under two very different administrations. NHTSA wants automated driving to happen but also wants the public to know that every car available today requires human supervision and control.

 

[jabloomf1230]

As we suspected.

edit: new legal team at work?

Yep.

Elon: Fire those union agitators!
Lawyer: Let's find something negative in their performance evaluations.
Elon: Good work. Hers some more stonk options.

 

[Bet TSLA]

And yet, it was completely predictable that the NHTSA would attempt to nerf FSD. This is a stark example of selectively applied rules, and motivated regulation. From Missy Cunningham to Dan O'Dowd, big corporations stand to lose bigly if Tesla succeeds too quickly.

What do you imagine that either Missy Cunningham or Dan O'Dowd have to do with "big corporations"?

 

[Skryll]

Yep.

Elon: Fire those union agitators!
Lawyer: Let's find something negative in their performance evaluations.
Elon: Good work. Hers some more stonk options.

The simpler explanation is that they knew they were going to be let go and quickly tried to unionize to make that harder, without success.

 

[Ogre]

Super interesting point of view from Whole Mars Blog this evening which puts this NHTSA thing in perspective.

This is the worst nightmare for Tesla shorts, who dreamed for years that NHTSA would ban Autopilot / FSD.


NHTSA has reviewed FSD Beta, and instead of banning it they asked for new updates to go out.

I hadn’t really thought about it this way, but while we’ve been looking at it from the glass half empty perspective, this really puts a different spin on it. If this is all NHTSA takes away from this, then this is a win.

Spoiler: Source

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626394348622577666

 

[TN Mtn Man]

And yet, it was completely predictable that the NHTSA would attempt to nerf FSD. This is a stark example of selectively applied rules, and motivated regulation. From Missy Cunningham to Dan O'Dowd, big corporations stand to lose bigly if Tesla succeeds too quickly.

What's odd-as I read this, I'm watchin Tucker-a Man and his Dream. Part of the show is about collusion between the government and the big 3 automakers to interfere with the companies ability to build and sell cars. All because they were more advanced, and much more focused on safety, than "legacy".

 

[Ogre]

The simpler explanation is that they knew they were going to be let go and quickly tried to unionize to make that harder, without success.

Based on the timeline Tesla published, thats more or less exactly what happened.

 

[Maarten]

Back into the $200 doldrums again.
Thought we were out of that.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Recall is a gub-mint regulatory term. Webster has nothing to do with it.

It just means that the manufacturer must fix your car at no charge to you. (and fix it expeditiously) Yes, Tesla will do an OTA update when it can. But what if the fix required HW3/HW4 to work correctly? Then Tesla would have to send a mobile tech to yoru garage to replace the hardware, again, at no charge to you.

IF the fix required a hardware update I would have no problem with the term "Recall".

I emailed Phil and he emailed me the same basic reply, so I guess I'll accept it but it just shows how out of touch NHTSA is. The problem is a software UPDATE and I stand by that. Recall means the cars need to be brought in and I'm sorry but the gub-mint needs to redefine it's verbage as it's not accurate. Does it matter? Hell yes it does. For Tesla to address any issues and push out a software patch is a completely different animal than having to physically address issues with over 360k cars.

This is yet another reason Tesla should not be considered a "auto company" ....

I am going to email Phil the same thing.

Cheers to the longs

 

[AZRI11]

Have you read the details of the recall? Three out of the four items aren't bugs or faults, they're just differences in opinion between Tesla and the NHTSA on how FSD Beta should operate.

Here's the full list:


On item 1, FSD Beta is actually very proficient at estimating whether it has enough time to travel through an intersection on a yellow. But the NHTSA would prefer that Tesla comes to a stop on yellow instead of proceeding.

On item 2, other descriptions make it clear that the NHTSA thinks Tesla isn't stopping for a sufficient amount of time. They want the cars to wait longer.

On item 3, Tesla has optimized for passenger comfort over quickly matching set speeds. The NHTSA wants them to snap to the set speed faster.

All of those can be fixed almost immediately without any additional features to FSD Beta. The only one that might take some work is item 4, if they choose to fix it by solving the lane selection problem. As I said above, they might be able to fix it to the NHTSA's liking by simply never allowing FSD to attempt to proceed forward once it recognizes it's in a turn lane.

I think this is what they mean by "variable speed zones" led speed limit signs that change depending on the traffic. 21 Model 3 does not see variable speedlimit signs

 

[Baumisch]

no No NO

You COMPLETELY change what is known as the "vector space" for training when you change the number and positioning of the cameras. It would be a completely different "training set" for the cars to learn on compared to "full" HW4 cars.

Tesla is not going to do a "gimped" HW4 version for retrofitting. And if you have actually read the legalease with with the EULA is written, and the sales agreements, they don't have to.

Well - you are in the camp of "Tesla can't abstract camera placement from FSD training" - I am in the camp of hoping Tesla will be able to have a stitching layer for each camera setup that provides 360° data to the FSD layer.

Because if what you say (which might be true) stays true then Tesla is de-incentivized to launch more models==camera_setups and also has a hard time supporting older setups. (S/X and Y/3 are similar but CT is much bigger, Roadster lower and Semi is a different beast alltogether).

I guess we have better threads to discuss if an abstraction is even possible, but on a high level for investor insights I think it's important to understand if an abstraction is possible or not.

 

[MC3OZ]

Well - you are in the camp of "Tesla can't abstract camera placement from FSD training" - I am in the camp of hoping Tesla will be able to have a stitching layer for each camera setup that provides 360° data to the FSD layer.

Because if what you say (which might be true) stays true then Tesla is de-incentivized to launch more models==camera_setups and also has a hard time supporting older setups. (S/X and Y/3 are similar but CT is much bigger, Roadster lower and Semi is a different beast alltogether).

I guess we have better threads to discuss if an abstraction is even possible, but on a high level for investor insights I think it's important to understand if an abstraction is possible or not.

I think if HW3 and HW4 needed to have different sets of training data, different NNs, different testing etc, that is a lot of duplication.

Worse still HW4 doesn't get any benefit from training data assembled by the HW3 fleet.

If there is a smart way to support HW3 and HW4 with a common training dataset, common NNs and one set of testing, Tesla will do that.

 

[Gigapress]

I think NHTSA uses the term “recall” because that’s the only term used US law, from what I can find. The only alternative would appear to be something like “defect/noncompliance notification” which isn’t as short and catchy.

49 U.S. Code § 30120 - Remedies for defects and noncompliance

www.law.cornell.edu

At least in my experience in commercial aerospace at Boeing, when it came to compliance with federal regulations there was always an effort to use language that was as identical as possible to the exact words from law. That keeps common terminology between all organizations involved and also helps makes traceability from law to execution more obvious. I think automotive regulation probably is handled similarly.

This law was enacted in 1966 when no cars had software. Changing terms can seem simple but be an annoying nightmare in practice, at least when dealing with safety regulations stuff. That may be a factor here in the continued usage of “recall”.

Remediation of defects or noncompliances must be done by repair, replacement, or refund. Tesla’s OTA software updates are effectively a replacement of previously defective software. Nothing in the law appears to indicate that “recalls” are intended to apply specifically to vehicles brought back to dealerships. That’s just traditionally how the requirements have been fulfilled.

Spoiler: Quote of recall remedy section

the manufacturer shall remedy the defect or noncompliance in any of the following ways themanufacturer chooses:
(A)if a vehicle—
(i)
by repairing the vehicle;
(ii)
by replacing the vehicle with an identical or reasonably equivalent vehicle; or
(iii)
by refunding the purchase price, less a reasonable allowance for depreciation.
(B)
if replacement equipment, by repairing the equipment, replacing the equipment with identical or reasonably equivalent equipment, or by refunding the purchase price.

It seems to me this isn’t a battle worth fighting because it might require a literal act of Congress to change, and anyway it’s not really conclusive that NHTSA is just behind the times or trying to make Tesla look bad by labeling these software changes as recalls.

(I’m not a lawyer)

 

[unk45]

From Webster's dictionary, the definition of the word "Recall".

1. bring (a fact, event, or situation) back into one's mind; remember.

2.officially order (someone) to return to a place.


I can RECALL when people understood the English language.
…

I cannot! Imagine native English speakers from South Africa, South London, South Carolina, South India and South Dakota trying to talk with one another. I recall a time when translators were needed to aid a small group of native English speakers from Perth, Scotland meeting with others from parts of India, Pakistan and USA. I was actually in that meeting. It was not really rare in the UAE back then.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I’m starting to wonder if any of the NHTSA’s meddling has ever been the result of actual issues or if it’s 100% nanny state nonsense. Maybe just 99% nanny state nonsense. Absolutely insane the level of BS around this.

I think "oh sure, it's stopping but it's not stopping long enough" clenches it. Next it will be, did it look both ways? We need to see that it looked both ways before proceeding.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

And yet, it was completely predictable that the NHTSA would attempt to nerf FSD. This is a stark example of selectively applied rules, and motivated regulation. From Missy Cunningham to Dan O'Dowd, big corporations stand to lose bigly if Tesla succeeds too quickly.

If Danny Boy's commercial had anything to do with this, I give up on humanity.