Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605448523419451392

The actual audio of Elon speaking makes it a lot clearer. Basically Elon is saying that he thinks that Twitter will be roughly cash flow neutral next year. This is a huge potential plus for us TSLA investors as it makes it far less likely that he will be selling further shares to prop up Twitter.

Unfortunately I've yet to see any of the media pick up on this statment yet??

Twitter comment but relates to Tesla. Since there is continued concern that Elon may continue to sell shares to fund twitter, I completed an analysis last week demonstrating that Twitter would be slightly cash flow positive in 2023. It was good to see Elon confirm this.
Since I try to keep my financial analysis limited to Tesla, I provided my Twitter 2023 analysis to another individual. He will publish it shortly on Twitter.

 

[jerry33]

You would think so but I don't see it. Yet. I hope you are right.

A lot of folks who had horses said the same thing.

 

[Krugerrand]

Acknowledging that there might be a problem is 1st step to problem resolution

Has been acknowledged. Acknowledged so much it has its own thread. Actually has two threads. And both threads are a cesspool of hate that continues to leak into this thread every time it’s acknowledged, yet again.

I’d be ever so grateful if the acknowledgers would move onto the next step.

 

[StealthP3D]

I voted in favor of his stock option packages, but at the time I thought if those market cap goals were reached, they wouldn't become "unreached" when he was selling the granted shares. They really should have added some restrictions that the stock had to hold on to the market cap goals in order for him to be allowed to sell any of the shares granted based on the highest goals reached. In retrospect, the package didn't protect against pump-and-dump (I'm not accusing Elon of this, just that a rational compensation packaged should protect against it).

That's a separate question from whether shareholders 'gifted' the shares to him or whether they required him to earn them.

That said, the executive compensation package protected against pumping the share price up simply to receive an unearned compensation package by requiring matching operational goals in order for Elon to get ANY compensation for his hard work. The operational goals were considered equally lofty and ridiculous. As it turned out, Telsa hit the high share prices required for each of the latter tranches far before the operational goals were met so the share price was simply a non-issue as far as the amount of comp Elon received.

I believe the comp package also required Elon to hold onto the shares for a period of 5 years to further protect against being paid simply for a high share price.

In other words, the lofty operational goals were the hurdle to unlock the value of Elon's comp package, not the share price. What's really funny is the same people complaining that Elon was unlocking too much value out of his compensation package were the same people complaining that Elon was talking the share price down by saying it was "too high". So, not only was there no "pump and dump", there were controls against that built into the comp package. What made the share price go so high to begin with were investors thinking it could only go up (even as Elon warned it was too high).

Some people will never learn. But that doesn't prevent them from endless bellyaching.

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605448523419451392

The actual audio of Elon speaking makes it a lot clearer. Basically Elon is saying that he thinks that Twitter will be roughly cash flow neutral next year. This is a huge potential plus for us TSLA investors as it makes it far less likely that he will be selling further shares to prop up Twitter.

Unfortunately I've yet to see any of the media pick up on this statment yet??

Amazes me that is a potential plus for us TSLA investors.

 

[Gigapress]

If by the heartland (in the intermountain west) you mean Utah, Idaho, Montana, AZ, NM, Colorado, NV good luck. Throw in eastern Wa., eastern Oregon and eastern Ca. Except for the cities where there are a concentration of green voters, you will pry the dirty diesel engines out of their cold dead hands.

In the early years, probably. Ignorance and resistance to change can be strong especially when people feel like outsiders are forcing something down their throats. In the long run when word gets out I expect attitudes to change.

Cybertruck objectively appeals perfectly to this crowd’s desires:

• Extremely good towing and hauling capabilities (unless you’re going very long distances into very rural areas, but even these spots will eventually get better charging infrastructure)
• Won’t rust, scratch or dent irrespective of how much normal abuse you subject it to
• No more spending a quarter of your paycheck at the fuel pump
• 16-inch ground clearance with 9-inch suspension travel comes standard
• Skin can absorb impact from 9mm rounds and probably could be wrapped in Kevlar too
• Best doomsday prepper bug-out vehicle ever designed
• Can be used conveniently as a camper even deep in the backcountry while still offering RV-like amenities such as climate control, protection from bears, and opportunity to bring electric appliances like a mini fridge, stove, Starlink terminal, TV, and so on. Adjustable air suspension lets you do this even on ground that isn’t flat and level. Same benefits apply to tailgating parties in parking lots.
• Convenient lockable tonneau cover comes standard
• Integrated ramp in tailgate allowing easier loading/unloading of very heavy objects
• Can be recharged off grid with personal solar power on your own property, or with mobile panels you bring with you when camping in the backcountry, or at any campground or RV park with electrical hookups
• Best combo of on-road driving comfort and handling and off-road performance due to advanced adaptive air suspension and entire bottom of vehicle just being a thick flat sheet of metal armor
• EV acceleration fun that can’t be matched by ICE trucks
• One pedal driving + wonders of regen braking when going down hills and mountains
• Only truck/SUV with Tesla software
• Easy to modify and customize thanks to flat surfaces for wrapping, L-track channels in the bed, and stainless steel that allows welding stuff to it
• More reliable than gas and diesel engines; won’t leave you stranded miles away from help with no cell service
• Glass won’t crack from flying road debris
• Compressed air hookups that can run air mattress inflation, nail guns, etc.
• Glass roof offers roomier cabin experience and good view, especially in the back row, and this is even nicer in the countryside
• More storage volume capacity than any ICE truck of equal size

Here’s a truck guy from Missouri telling some reasons why he wants his CT so much:

 

[TrendTrader007]

I bought this morning (sold some staples and utilities that have held up well this year) given the RSI numbers and based on the fact that I feel we're close to max fear/negativity. Youtubers, wall street analysts and this board are all at maximum distaste for the stock and Elon, and I feel we're nearing a bottom. There could be more volatility, but its hard to imagine it gets meaningfully worse given the fundamentals.

Yeah, they have basically priced in every possible negative outcome. Tesla is acting like it’s going into bankruptcy, who cares whether the bottom is today tomorrow or in three months, probability favors, markedly higher prices within a year.

 

[StealthP3D]

ARKK is at a 6 year low. If I recall, much of the criticism was not just that she was selling "low", but that she was replacing TSLA with crap.

My point was simply that Cathy's detractors couldn't have been more wrong when they criticized her for selling Tesla at "the bottom". Because she was so clueless compared to them. Those posts were laughable then and they are verifiably laughable now.

Almost everything is at or near 6 month lows and Ark doesn't have the leeway to not be long in the market. So it's literally meaningless that ARKK is near a 6-month low. The fact that matters here; any Ark fund that sold when Cathy's detractors told her she was foolish for selling, are a lot better off for having sold.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Picked up more chairs on sale at $137.98. Yes I specifically put in that GTC price

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Ignore ALL the FUD. Record sales for Model Y in Norway.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605531580721659904

There is also a small chance they can hit 100.000 registered Teslas before the new year. In a country with 5.5 million people. Per capita that would be something like 6 million in the US. The daily averages says they can but last few quarters the numbers have dropped off dramatically the last couple of days so not a sure thing. They need just under 1200 more to hit that number. Six regular business days to go.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Twitter comment but relates to Tesla. Since there is continued concern that Elon may continue to sell shares to fund twitter, I completed an analysis last week demonstrating that Twitter would be slightly cash flow positive in 2023. It was good to see Elon confirm this.
Since I try to keep my financial analysis limited to Tesla, I provided my Twitter 2023 analysis to another individual. He will publish it shortly on Twitter.

Provide a link when published please.

 

[dhanson865]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591963470060261376

Let's hit 449K which will be 1.45%, and round it to 1.5%

unforeseen events that happened this year - WAR, DISEASE, INFLATION ....
Tesla is winner anyway ..

If only Troy knew how to round.

You look at his numbers and even a projection that is 7 digits long doesn't end in a zero. He'll take any starting number and run it through a formula and keep the extra digits even if there is no reasonable expectation of accuracy.

When Tesla said 50% growth they didn't say 50% growth down to 2 decimal places. They meant it in round terms, that it would be growing, not flat. They gave a rough scale, they didn't say it would be 49.921334298% growth. But that's what Troy hears. According to troy that recording says they were aiming for 50% on the dot, he'll compare to that to as many decimal places as his spreadsheet allows.

It's a prediction, not a past result. Round it some and make it look like a prediction...

 

[StealthP3D]

Well at least Elon said that this is a buying opportunity instead of the stock price is still too high

The people who wouldn't listen to Elon when he said the stock was too high, won't listen to him now either. Which means they will probably blame Elon if the share price recovers before they get back in for less than they sold it.

I'm starting to see a pattern here: If you don't like the result of your financial decisions, blame Elon!

But, when I look past all the short-sighted noise and bellyaching, I see that Elon created a company that can do things that were unimaginable just four or so years ago. The bellyachers didn't create this, Elon did.

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591963470060261376

Let's hit 449K which will be 1.45%, and round it to 1.5%

unforeseen events that happened this year - WAR, DISEASE, INFLATION ....
Tesla is winner anyway ..

Looking again at what we know and some modest assumptions
Need 465,723 to hit 50%
289,363 after China October and November production.
148,834 if Fremont production same as Q3
84,434 after Texas and Berlin estimates after the 3k per week announcements

So China December production and any growth from Fremont. Q3 increased at Fremont 5%. If the same for Q4 then 77408 needed from China in December.

Assume an exact hit and add in 35K inventory from end of Q3 that means 500K units to possibly deliver in Q4.

Assume last 2 weeks of year from non Shanghai plants not delivered. Berlin and Texas 12,800, Fremont 25,000.
Assume all of October and November delivered from all plants
Assume all inventory going into Q4 delivered.

That is 410K delivered without any deliveries of Shanghai December production.

Where is my math off?

 

[The Accountant]

Provide a link when published please.

You'll recognize my color scheme
If there is interest in discussing this, let's move it to a twitter thread (not sure where that is).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605585134605852672

 

[StealthP3D]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605448523419451392

The actual audio of Elon speaking makes it a lot clearer. Basically Elon is saying that he thinks that Twitter will be roughly cash flow neutral next year. This is a huge potential plus for us TSLA investors as it makes it far less likely that he will be selling further shares to prop up Twitter.

Unfortunately I've yet to see any of the media pick up on this statment yet??

Edit: Dow Jones have just published a short article with Elon's comments at 10am.

Those who want to be actually informed should listen to this short clip rather than allow your neurons to be bombarded with the misleading noise spread by MSM and those who want Elon and Tesla to fail. You have a choice!

 

[NicoV]

Twitter comment but relates to Tesla. Since there is continued concern that Elon may continue to sell shares to fund twitter, I completed an analysis last week demonstrating that Twitter would be slightly cash flow positive in 2023. It was good to see Elon confirm this.
Since I try to keep my financial analysis limited to Tesla, I provided my Twitter 2023 analysis to another individual. He will publish it shortly on Twitter.

Thanks for quantifying the risk that Elon has to recurrently sell TSLA stock.
I’ve been looking at quantifying the brand damage done by this Twitter thing. We have seen tweets from people selling their Tesla or not buying a Tesla, but that is all anecdotal data.
I think the following may quantify (at least a ballpark figure) the potential loss of sales because of reputation damage: to me it seems like Twitter lost a lot of users to Mastodon. The people I follow on Twitter who were outraged about Elon all created a Mastodon account. Nobody mentioned any other social media, so I’ll assume that Mastodon took the majority of to people desiring to switch. According to this article (More than two million users have flocked to Mastodon since Elon Musk took over Twitter) 2 million users signed up for Mastodon recently. So the upper bound for the number of people switching from Twitter to Mastodon is 2 million. This is about 1% of the Twitter user base.
Now switching to a different social medium has a very low barrier (and a lot of those people didn’t really switch, they’re just checking out Mastodon). Not buying a Tesla is much more drastic way to express your unhappiness and that’s the only thing that may impact Tesla financially. That’s why I think the impact on Tesla sales will be much less than 1%. That’s basically noise.
I’ll probably get a lot of disagrees on this opinion, but if you do disagree, please elaborate your own reason to quantify the impact on Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

You'll recognize my color scheme
If there is interest in discussing this, let's move it to a twitter thread (not sure where that is).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605585134605852672

That interest expense is assuming Elon didn't use the recent stock sales to pay off any of those high interest debts correct?

 

[cliff harris]

What would you say: When is the right time to announce or reveal a new upcoming vehicle? Could be a modular van for people and cargo, a compact "Model 2" hatchback for urban markets, a modular gen3 platform with multiple vehicles shown at once? Whatever it is, when is the right time to unveil it?

Looking at Tesla's history it's difficult to create an estimated timeframe how much time passes from product reveal to first delivers, but it will be at least 1.5-2 years. With only the Roadster left in the pipeline from mid 2023, I personally think it is not too far away...

I think we may see some change there. Tesla got a lot of flak for having the semi and CT take so long, and the roadster too... There might be some pressure to not make any promises too far in advance when it comes to future models.
There is zero need for Tesla to pre-announce any new product. The company doesn't desperately need deposits as revenue, and its not like they don't already have a big pipeline of vehicles for the two ramping factories. We are barely even discussing a Texas/Berlin made model 3 yet, but we know it will come.

My guess is that the gap from announcement to delivery of the next vehicle, whether its a smaller car, or a van (or even a bus?*) might be shorter than we are used to.

*Tesla could well be thinking about this. Its not like there is a shortage of a market for it, and if they can make the semi work, they can build a bus. Not sexy, but a great decision in terms of 'the mission', as like semis, buses are in use a LOT.

 

[mongo]

Where is my math off

84,434 after Texas and Berlin estimates after the 3k per week announcements

3K was not achieved until partway through Q4. Even if they hit that as an average it would be around 2*3k*12wks = 72k

Edit: I misunderstood, B&A is 64k (running remainder)